The Dutch energy transition requires large amounts of raw materials, posing challenges related to material availability, environmental sustainability and social impacts. This thesis assesses the material requirements of a future Dutch energy system and evaluates interventions tar
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The Dutch energy transition requires large amounts of raw materials, posing challenges related to material availability, environmental sustainability and social impacts. This thesis assesses the material requirements of a future Dutch energy system and evaluates interventions targeted to reduce the need for materials with the most disproportionate demand relative to the country's size. A dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) model is developed to quantify projected material demand for electricity generation and flexible capacity technologies up to 2050. This model integrates extensive data on technology lifetimes, market shares, and material intensities and is made open-source so that material requirements can be integrated into future scenario making.
To increase its relevance for policy-makers, material requirements are estimated for a baseline scenario that most closely represents the country's National Energy Plan, i.e. the "Middle of the road' scenario from Netbeheer Nederland. Results indicate that demand for 17 materials is deemed disproportionate as they exceed the country's population share, and seven of these exceed its share of global GDP, classifying as severely disproportionate materials: vanadium, germanium, terbium, iridium, dysprosium, lithium, and neodymium.
To reduce reliance on these materials, eight interventions are evaluated for their potential to lower demand through changes in electricity generation and storage, such as technological substitution, increasing material efficiency and reducing capacity. All eight interventions are deemed to be effective and are combined into the Reduced Material Future (RMF) scenario, where the material demand for 19 materials is more than halved, including all seven severely disproportionate materials to below its share of global GDP.
Several recommendations are proposed to better align energy system development with material constraints. First, material requirements should be integrated into models used for scenario-building. Second, policy instruments should incentivise the deployment of existing low critical raw material (CRM) technologies and mandate end-of-life recycling. Third, research and development efforts should focus on reducing specific material intensities of low-maturity technologies. Finally, recycling infrastructure should be strategically planned to align with the projected material outflows of the energy system.