The Dutch greenhouse horticulture sector aims to be climate-neutral by 2040, yet the path forward is anything but straightforward. This thesis examines cradle-to-gate environmental impacts and resource vulnerabilities of seven fossil-free energy configurations for tomato cultivation, benchmarked against today’s natural-gas Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems.

Using an attributional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) complemented by GeoPolRisk resource-criticality metrics, the thesis modelled geothermal networks, residual-heat networks, electric heat pumps (with and without Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage, dehumidifiers, solar arrays, and batteries). An Excel-based decision-support tool translates these complex trade-offs with varying CO₂ enrichment rates, coproduct allocations, and electricity sourcing, into an intuitive dashboards for growers or other decision makers.

The analysis reveals that CO₂ enrichment practices dominate climate change outcomes. When growers match enrichment to CHP’s output, alternative systems offer little net GHG improvement. Cutting enrichment to more justified agronomically levels unlocks clear climate benefits across electrification and network scenarios and boosts the fraction of biogenic carbon uptake from 12.5% toward 28%. The allocation method also significantly impacts results, attributing all emissions to heat (common industry practice) exaggerates CHP’s footprint, whereas economic allocation paints a more balanced picture of the heat, electricity, and CO₂ coproducts.

Electrification pathways can reduce fossil-fuel use and CO₂ emissions, yet they shift burdens elsewhere. Renewably powered heating increases water consumption and heightens demand for critical raw materials, exposing growers to supply-chain and geopolitical risks. No single technology emerges as a silver bullet. Each entails environmental trade-offs among climate impact, resource scarcity, water use and other impact categories.

Developed within the interdisciplinary Thesis Lab “The Future of Energy in the Horticulture Sector” this research bridges LCA modelling with grower insights. The accompanying decision-support tool empowers stakeholders to tailor assumptions, explore “what-if” scenarios, and pinpoint where efficiency gains, especially in CO₂ dosing and coproduct attribution, will deliver the greatest environmental return. Achieving true climate neutrality in horticulture demands more than swapping fuels. It calls for systems-level thinking, optimized operational practices, and transparent accounting.