Estimating loss of life caused by dam breaches based on the simulation of floods routing and evacuation potential of population at risk

Journal article (2022)

Authors

Wei Ge Zhengzhou University
Yutie Jiao Zhengzhou University
Meimei Wu Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou
Zongkun Li Zhengzhou University
Te Wang Zhengzhou University
Li Wei Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College
Yadong Zhang Zhengzhou University
Weixing Gao Zhengzhou University
P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder Safety and Security Science - TPM
Research Group
Safety and Security Science (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2022 Wei Ge, Yutie Jiao, Meimei Wu, Zongkun Li, Te Wang, Wei Li, Yadong Zhang, Weixing Gao, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128059
Dam breach Loss of life Disaster-causing mechanism Emergency plan Evacuation potential
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Published Date

2022

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Values Technology and Innovation

Research Group

Safety and Security Science

Abstract

Dam breaches often have catastrophic consequences in downstream areas. Hydrodynamic factors and the evacuation potential of the population at risk (PAR) have significant impacts on the loss of life (LOL) caused by dam breaches. However, the existing comprehensive evaluation models have not conducted in-depth research on the evacuation potential of populations. Thus, limited guidance is available for relevant departments to formulate emergency plans to reduce the potential LOL. Therefore, a new comprehensive evaluation model was proposed in this study. According to the relevant references and disaster theory, the main influencing factors and the process through which the LOL is caused by dam breaches were determined. The specific occurrence process was divided into six stages: a dam breach causes flood, the flood puts the PAR, the PAR complete the preparation work, the PAR evacuate, the un-evacuated population shelter themselves inside buildings, and flood causes the death of the exposed population. To calculate the LOL, the parameters relevant at each stage were defined. Furthermore, the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System, Geographic Information System, and related materials were used to simulate the flood routing and evacuation potential of the PAR, quantifying the parameters in the model. The model was applied to 14 towns in the downstream areas of the Luhun Reservoir in Henan Province, China, and its accuracy was verified by comparing the results obtained from the two existing models. In addition, the specific suggestions for reducing the potential LOL were proposed based on the results of the simulation.