Die-out Probability in SIS Epidemic Processes on Networks
Qiang Liu (TU Delft - Network Architectures and Services)
Piet Van Mieghem (TU Delft - Network Architectures and Services)
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Abstract
An accurate approximate formula of the die-out probability in a SIS epidemic process on a network is proposed. The formula contains only three essential parameters: the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of the network, the effective infection rate of the virus, and the initial number of infected nodes in the network. The die-out probability formula is compared with the exact die-out probability in complete graphs, Erdȍs-Rényi graphs, and a power-law graph. Furthermore, as an example, the formula is applied to the N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation, to explicitly incorporate the die-out.