The road from stated to revealed preference
How policy opens new doors for first-time buyers
P. Ruigrok (TU Delft - Architecture and the Built Environment)
M.E.A. Haffner – Mentor (TU Delft - Architecture and the Built Environment)
H.J.F.M. Boumeester – Mentor (TU Delft - Architecture and the Built Environment)
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Abstract
The Netherlands is suffering from a housing crisis. Interventions of the government, new policies and new construction play a significant role in the way the housing stock is being shaped, and the housing crisis is being approached. An insufficient number of available houses is not the only problem present in current housing stock. Also, a qualitative mismatch considering housing characteristics is present in the housing stock, as a large part of the population does not live in the house they prefer. This qualitative mismatch also seems to be present in the new-build market, looking for example at housing typology. Therefore, in this study, it is researched how changing housing policies affect supply in the new-build market, and to what extent this new supply meets the stated and revealed preferences of first-time buyers. In order to research this matter, a mixed method approach is applied. A literature review was conducted to gain better understanding of new housing policies and their (potential) effects on the new-build market. Quantitative analyses using the WoON 2021 and WoON 2024 datasets were conducted to gain deeper understanding of the stated and revealed preferences of first-time buyers, and to assess if those preferences changed over time. Lastly, interviews were conducted to capture the trade-offs first-time buyers make while searching for a house and which priorities arise. It was found that new policies (indirectly) lead to inner-city construction, more affordable housing, smaller housing and the realisation of more apartments. Furthermore, it was found that the match between stated and revealed preferences in the new-build market is limited. Scientific and social relevance is present in the change in the characteristics of new supply for first-time buyers caused by new policies, in the degree of similarity between stated and revealed preferences of first-time buyers in the new-build market, and in the order of trade-offs made by this group.