Climate-Change Projections of Flow Distribution Across the Rhine Delta
M. Kifayath Chowdhury (TU Delft - Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)
Astrid Blom (TU Delft - Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)
Clàudia Ylla Arbós (TU Delft - Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering, AXA Climate)
Ralph M.J. Schielen (TU Delft - Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering, Rijkswaterstaat)
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Abstract
We project climate-driven changes in flow and sediment partitioning across the Rhine delta using a hybrid one-dimensional model informed by two-dimensional sediment-partitioning data. Simulations spanning 150 years and 540 km show a continued shift of discharge toward the Waal branch, while the effects of historical interventions gradually diminish. Climate impacts on flow division emerge around 2050 and intensify thereafter: by 2150, the IJssel is projected to convey approximately up to 17% less discharge under low-flow conditions, whereas the Waal may receive up to 6% more. Although hydrograph changes have limited influence on flow partitioning, they markedly increase channel-bed erosion by coarsening the sediment flux delivered to the bifurcation region and enhanced sensitivity to shear-stress gradients across the bifurcation. Consequently, climate forcing, particularly sea-level rise, overtakes past interventions as the dominant driver of future flow partitioning and bed level adjustment. These results have direct implications for long-term water management, navigation, and ecological resilience in the Rhine delta.
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