M.K. Chowdhury
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13 records found
1
Journal article
(2026)
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M. Kifayath Chowdhury, Astrid Blom, Clàudia Ylla Arbós, Ralph M.J. Schielen
We project climate-driven changes in flow and sediment partitioning across the Rhine delta using a hybrid one-dimensional model informed by two-dimensional sediment-partitioning data. Simulations spanning 150 years and 540 km show a continued shift of discharge toward the Waal branch, while the effects of historical interventions gradually diminish. Climate impacts on flow division emerge around 2050 and intensify thereafter: by 2150, the IJssel is projected to convey approximately up to 17% less discharge under low-flow conditions, whereas the Waal may receive up to 6% more. Although hydrograph changes have limited influence on flow partitioning, they markedly increase channel-bed erosion by coarsening the sediment flux delivered to the bifurcation region and enhanced sensitivity to shear-stress gradients across the bifurcation. Consequently, climate forcing, particularly sea-level rise, overtakes past interventions as the dominant driver of future flow partitioning and bed level adjustment. These results have direct implications for long-term water management, navigation, and ecological resilience in the Rhine delta.
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We project climate-driven changes in flow and sediment partitioning across the Rhine delta using a hybrid one-dimensional model informed by two-dimensional sediment-partitioning data. Simulations spanning 150 years and 540 km show a continued shift of discharge toward the Waal branch, while the effects of historical interventions gradually diminish. Climate impacts on flow division emerge around 2050 and intensify thereafter: by 2150, the IJssel is projected to convey approximately up to 17% less discharge under low-flow conditions, whereas the Waal may receive up to 6% more. Although hydrograph changes have limited influence on flow partitioning, they markedly increase channel-bed erosion by coarsening the sediment flux delivered to the bifurcation region and enhanced sensitivity to shear-stress gradients across the bifurcation. Consequently, climate forcing, particularly sea-level rise, overtakes past interventions as the dominant driver of future flow partitioning and bed level adjustment. These results have direct implications for long-term water management, navigation, and ecological resilience in the Rhine delta.
Conference paper
(2025)
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M. Kifayath Chowdhury, Astrid Blom, Claudia Ylla Arbos, Ralph M.J. Schielen
In engineered river systems such as the Dutch Rhine, bifurcation dynamics play a crucial role in providing flood safety, freshwater supply, and inland navigation. While regulation measures in the past caused bed erosion (Ylla Arb´os et al., 2021) and peak discharges may have caused changes in flow partitioning (Chowdhury et al., 2023) at the bifurcation points, climate change is expected to further alter hydrological patterns, impacting sediment transport and increasing bed erosion (Ylla Arb´os et al., 2023) as well as affecting flow partitioning again. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on the Dutch Rhine bifurcation system over the next 150 years, focusing on hydrograph variations, sea level rise, and the influence of past engineering interventions. Understanding these dynamics is critical for future river management and adaptation strategies.
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In engineered river systems such as the Dutch Rhine, bifurcation dynamics play a crucial role in providing flood safety, freshwater supply, and inland navigation. While regulation measures in the past caused bed erosion (Ylla Arb´os et al., 2021) and peak discharges may have caused changes in flow partitioning (Chowdhury et al., 2023) at the bifurcation points, climate change is expected to further alter hydrological patterns, impacting sediment transport and increasing bed erosion (Ylla Arb´os et al., 2023) as well as affecting flow partitioning again. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on the Dutch Rhine bifurcation system over the next 150 years, focusing on hydrograph variations, sea level rise, and the influence of past engineering interventions. Understanding these dynamics is critical for future river management and adaptation strategies.
Journal article
(2024)
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Astrid Blom, Clàudia Ylla Arbós, M. Kifayath Chowdhury, Arjen Doelman, Max Rietkerk, Ralph M.J. Schielen
Tipping occurs when a critical point is reached, beyond which a perturbation leads to persistent system change. Here, we present observational indications demonstrating presently ongoing noise-tipping of a real-world system. Noise in a river system is associated with the changing flow rate. In particular, we consider the upper Rhine River delta, where flow and sediment fluxes are partitioned over the two downstream branches (bifurcates) of an important river bifurcation. Field observations show that a sequence of peak flows in the 1990s resulted in sudden sediment deposition in one bifurcate, triggering a persistent and ongoing change in the flow partitioning. This has caused the system to move toward an alternative equilibrium state or attractor. An idealized model confirms that a river bifurcation system under such conditions is prone to tipping, and provides insight on the onset of tipping.
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Tipping occurs when a critical point is reached, beyond which a perturbation leads to persistent system change. Here, we present observational indications demonstrating presently ongoing noise-tipping of a real-world system. Noise in a river system is associated with the changing flow rate. In particular, we consider the upper Rhine River delta, where flow and sediment fluxes are partitioned over the two downstream branches (bifurcates) of an important river bifurcation. Field observations show that a sequence of peak flows in the 1990s resulted in sudden sediment deposition in one bifurcate, triggering a persistent and ongoing change in the flow partitioning. This has caused the system to move toward an alternative equilibrium state or attractor. An idealized model confirms that a river bifurcation system under such conditions is prone to tipping, and provides insight on the onset of tipping.
Climate change is responsible for global shifts in precipitation patterns and an overall in-crease in global temperatures. The transi-tions are anticipated to modify the river hydro-graph and sea level. The changes to the hy-drograph are also likely to influence sediment flux. These alterations imply shifts in both up-stream and downstream boundaries for river bifurcations. However, the resulting bifurca-tion response remains uncertain and warrants further investigation. Our objective is to un-derstand the extent of large-scale and long-term response of river bifurcations to climate change. We take the Upper Dutch Rhine bifur-cation region as our case study and develop a 1D hydro-morphodynamic model representing the system to achieve this goal.
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Climate change is responsible for global shifts in precipitation patterns and an overall in-crease in global temperatures. The transi-tions are anticipated to modify the river hydro-graph and sea level. The changes to the hy-drograph are also likely to influence sediment flux. These alterations imply shifts in both up-stream and downstream boundaries for river bifurcations. However, the resulting bifurca-tion response remains uncertain and warrants further investigation. Our objective is to un-derstand the extent of large-scale and long-term response of river bifurcations to climate change. We take the Upper Dutch Rhine bifur-cation region as our case study and develop a 1D hydro-morphodynamic model representing the system to achieve this goal.
Channel bed incision in engineered rivers
Characteristics and mitigation
Engineered rivers are often prone to channel bed incision. This decreases the channel-floodplain connection, hampers navigation where nonerodible reaches increasingly protrude from the bed, and can destabilize structures. Here we inventorize causes and characteristics of channel incision measures. We elaborate on how channel bed incision is a transient channel response toward a new equilibrium channel state. Causes of incision comprise base level fall, channel narrowing (e.g., due to river training), channel shortening (bend cut-offs), an increased channel-forming discharge (e.g. due to climate change), and a decrease (or fining or coarsening) of the sediment flux from the upstream part of the basin. Finally, we discuss two measures that may mitigate channel bed incision: sediment nourishments and longitudinal training walls.
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Engineered rivers are often prone to channel bed incision. This decreases the channel-floodplain connection, hampers navigation where nonerodible reaches increasingly protrude from the bed, and can destabilize structures. Here we inventorize causes and characteristics of channel incision measures. We elaborate on how channel bed incision is a transient channel response toward a new equilibrium channel state. Causes of incision comprise base level fall, channel narrowing (e.g., due to river training), channel shortening (bend cut-offs), an increased channel-forming discharge (e.g. due to climate change), and a decrease (or fining or coarsening) of the sediment flux from the upstream part of the basin. Finally, we discuss two measures that may mitigate channel bed incision: sediment nourishments and longitudinal training walls.
Abstract
(2023)
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M. Kifayath Chowdhury, Astrid Blom, Clàudia Ylla Arbós, Merel C. Verbeek, Max H.I. Schropp, R.M.J. Schielen
Journal article
(2023)
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M. Kifayath Chowdhury, Astrid Blom, Clàudia Ylla Arbós, Merel C. Verbeek, Max H.I. Schropp, Ralph M.J. Schielen
A bifurcation in an engineered river system (i.e., fixed planform and width) has fewer degrees of freedom in its response to interventions and natural changes than a natural bifurcation system. Our objective is to provide insight into how a bifurcation in an engineered river responds to peak flows and human interventions. To this end, we analyze the change in hydraulics, bed level, and bed surface grain size in the region of two bifurcations in the upper Rhine delta in the Netherlands over the last century. We show that, over the last two decades, the water discharge in one bifurcate (the Waal branch) has steadily increased at the expense of the other. This gradual increase in the water discharge of the first branch is associated with its erosion rate being larger than the other branch. The quick succession of two or three peak flow events (1993, 1995, and 1998) caused rapid sediment deposition over the upstream part of the bifurcate that has gradually lost discharge, which seems to have triggered the slow change in flow partitioning.
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A bifurcation in an engineered river system (i.e., fixed planform and width) has fewer degrees of freedom in its response to interventions and natural changes than a natural bifurcation system. Our objective is to provide insight into how a bifurcation in an engineered river responds to peak flows and human interventions. To this end, we analyze the change in hydraulics, bed level, and bed surface grain size in the region of two bifurcations in the upper Rhine delta in the Netherlands over the last century. We show that, over the last two decades, the water discharge in one bifurcate (the Waal branch) has steadily increased at the expense of the other. This gradual increase in the water discharge of the first branch is associated with its erosion rate being larger than the other branch. The quick succession of two or three peak flow events (1993, 1995, and 1998) caused rapid sediment deposition over the upstream part of the bifurcate that has gradually lost discharge, which seems to have triggered the slow change in flow partitioning.
River bifurcations divide the water and sediment over two downstream branches or bifurcates. As the changing climate adjusts the boundary conditions (i.e., base level, hydrograph, and sediment flux) for bifurcations, it will affect their flow and sediment partitioning over the bifurcates. Our objective is to provide insight into the response of a bifurcation to sea level rise (SLR). To this end, we compare the response of an idealized bifurcation in an engineered river (i.e., with a fixed planform and width) to SLR to the one of a single channel, using a one-dimensional numerical model system.
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River bifurcations divide the water and sediment over two downstream branches or bifurcates. As the changing climate adjusts the boundary conditions (i.e., base level, hydrograph, and sediment flux) for bifurcations, it will affect their flow and sediment partitioning over the bifurcates. Our objective is to provide insight into the response of a bifurcation to sea level rise (SLR). To this end, we compare the response of an idealized bifurcation in an engineered river (i.e., with a fixed planform and width) to SLR to the one of a single channel, using a one-dimensional numerical model system.
Conference paper
(2022)
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M.K. Chowdhury, A. Blom, C. Ylla Arbos, M.C. Verbeek, M.H.I. Schropp, R.M.J. Schielen
Spatial and temporal patterns in three-dimensional flow structure are linked to channel processes and morphology in many environments. However, there is not yet an understanding of how the flow structure is influenced by channelized and gradually distributed lateral outflows that are often prevalent in river deltas. This study presents an analysis of three-dimensional flow structure data collected from Wax Lake Delta, a naturally developing river-dominated delta in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Three hydrographic surveys were conducted using a boat-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler at two sites: a channelized outflow zone and a distributary channel experiencing unchannelized lateral outflow. The flow structure was analyzed to identify secondary circulation cells induced by both types of lateral outflow. For channelized outflow, coherent cells were observed. However, minimal presence of coherent structures was observed for unchannelized lateral outflow. The results suggest that the formation of detectable secondary circulation cells may depend upon a threshold value of the ratio of the lateral momentum flux along the length of the outflow zone and primary flow momentum flux. The threshold lies in between 0.211 and 0.375 km−1 for the conditions tested. This research contributes novel field measurements of flow structure in an actively prograding river delta and offers important implications for coastal restoration by linking three-dimensional flow structure to lateral outflow.
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Spatial and temporal patterns in three-dimensional flow structure are linked to channel processes and morphology in many environments. However, there is not yet an understanding of how the flow structure is influenced by channelized and gradually distributed lateral outflows that are often prevalent in river deltas. This study presents an analysis of three-dimensional flow structure data collected from Wax Lake Delta, a naturally developing river-dominated delta in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Three hydrographic surveys were conducted using a boat-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler at two sites: a channelized outflow zone and a distributary channel experiencing unchannelized lateral outflow. The flow structure was analyzed to identify secondary circulation cells induced by both types of lateral outflow. For channelized outflow, coherent cells were observed. However, minimal presence of coherent structures was observed for unchannelized lateral outflow. The results suggest that the formation of detectable secondary circulation cells may depend upon a threshold value of the ratio of the lateral momentum flux along the length of the outflow zone and primary flow momentum flux. The threshold lies in between 0.211 and 0.375 km−1 for the conditions tested. This research contributes novel field measurements of flow structure in an actively prograding river delta and offers important implications for coastal restoration by linking three-dimensional flow structure to lateral outflow.
Abstract
(2022)
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M. Kifayath Chowdhury, Astrid Blom, Clàudia Ylla Arbós, Merel C. Verbeek, Max H.I. Schropp, Ralph M.J. Schielen
Sediment transport capacity and supply of sediment to a river channel increase significantly during peak flow events. Here we study how a river bifurcation system (partitioning water and sediment over its downstream branches) responds to peak flow events. We focus on the Pannerdense Kop bifurcation in the Dutch Rhine River, an engineered system where planform and channel width are fixed. We analyze water discharge and bed level data measured over the last century. We observe rapid aggradation in one of the branches (Pannerden Channel) following the peak flow events of 1993 and 1995, and little to no bed level change in the other branch (Waal). Prior to the event, both branches eroded, and the upstream part of the Pannerden Channel had a greater erosion rate than the Waal. After the 1993 and 1995 peak flow events, the erosion in the upstream part of the Pannerden Channel slowed significantly, whereas the upstream part of the Waal branch continued to erode (though at a smaller pace than before the peak flow events). This differential erosion has resulted in a gradual increase of water discharge toward the Waal branch. Interestingly, the bifurcation system does not appear to respond equally to all peak flow events. We hypothesize that the bifurcation response to the 1993 and 1995 peak flows differs from previous peak flows because of the sequence of the two events. Between the 1993 and 1995 events, the system may not have had sufficient time to disperse the sediment deposited at the upstream end of the Pannerden channel. Another reason for the response to the 1993 and 1995 peak flows to differ from previous events may be that the channel bed surface within the region of interest has coarsened significantly. This study illustrates the importance of peak flows regarding bifurcation dynamics, and further research is focused on the interaction between bifurcation dynamics and the dynamics of the larger-scale system.
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Sediment transport capacity and supply of sediment to a river channel increase significantly during peak flow events. Here we study how a river bifurcation system (partitioning water and sediment over its downstream branches) responds to peak flow events. We focus on the Pannerdense Kop bifurcation in the Dutch Rhine River, an engineered system where planform and channel width are fixed. We analyze water discharge and bed level data measured over the last century. We observe rapid aggradation in one of the branches (Pannerden Channel) following the peak flow events of 1993 and 1995, and little to no bed level change in the other branch (Waal). Prior to the event, both branches eroded, and the upstream part of the Pannerden Channel had a greater erosion rate than the Waal. After the 1993 and 1995 peak flow events, the erosion in the upstream part of the Pannerden Channel slowed significantly, whereas the upstream part of the Waal branch continued to erode (though at a smaller pace than before the peak flow events). This differential erosion has resulted in a gradual increase of water discharge toward the Waal branch. Interestingly, the bifurcation system does not appear to respond equally to all peak flow events. We hypothesize that the bifurcation response to the 1993 and 1995 peak flows differs from previous peak flows because of the sequence of the two events. Between the 1993 and 1995 events, the system may not have had sufficient time to disperse the sediment deposited at the upstream end of the Pannerden channel. Another reason for the response to the 1993 and 1995 peak flows to differ from previous events may be that the channel bed surface within the region of interest has coarsened significantly. This study illustrates the importance of peak flows regarding bifurcation dynamics, and further research is focused on the interaction between bifurcation dynamics and the dynamics of the larger-scale system.
Poster
(2022)
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A. Blom, R.M.J. Schielen, C. Ylla Arbos, Arjen Doelman , Max Rietkerk , M.K. Chowdhury
We assess whether an observed sudden change in trend of the flow partitioning over the downstream branches of a bifurcation system in the Dutch Rhine River, following two consecutive peak flow events, is evidence of system tipping. For this purpose, we analyze field data of the bifurcation region and relate observed sudden and subsequent slow system changes to the stability properties of equilibrium solutions of a low complexity river bifurcation model. In particular, the two peak flow events led to sediment deposition at the upstream end of one bifurcate. As the resulting larger flow rate toward the other bifurcate enhanced channel bed erosion, that bifurcate has attracted an ever larger portion of the flow rate since. This presumably unstable state of the bifurcation region is of concern, as flood risk management and freshwater supply within the system are based on a certain agreed flow partitioning ratio between the bifurcates. Based on the river bifurcation model, we illustrate that there exist several paths in which a sudden decrease in flow depth in one bifurcate leads to a transition from one stable state with two open branches to another stable state with one closed branch. As the bifurcation model is a heavily schematized one, we cannot prove that the observed bifurcation system change agrees with one of these theoretical trajectories. There are indications that some natural systems are able to prevent tipping behavior, provided that their response is characterized by sufficient degrees of freedom. The fact that the river system is a heavily engineered system with fixed planform and banks (and hence limited degrees of freedom of channel response) may have prevented the system from evading tipping behavior.
...
We assess whether an observed sudden change in trend of the flow partitioning over the downstream branches of a bifurcation system in the Dutch Rhine River, following two consecutive peak flow events, is evidence of system tipping. For this purpose, we analyze field data of the bifurcation region and relate observed sudden and subsequent slow system changes to the stability properties of equilibrium solutions of a low complexity river bifurcation model. In particular, the two peak flow events led to sediment deposition at the upstream end of one bifurcate. As the resulting larger flow rate toward the other bifurcate enhanced channel bed erosion, that bifurcate has attracted an ever larger portion of the flow rate since. This presumably unstable state of the bifurcation region is of concern, as flood risk management and freshwater supply within the system are based on a certain agreed flow partitioning ratio between the bifurcates. Based on the river bifurcation model, we illustrate that there exist several paths in which a sudden decrease in flow depth in one bifurcate leads to a transition from one stable state with two open branches to another stable state with one closed branch. As the bifurcation model is a heavily schematized one, we cannot prove that the observed bifurcation system change agrees with one of these theoretical trajectories. There are indications that some natural systems are able to prevent tipping behavior, provided that their response is characterized by sufficient degrees of freedom. The fact that the river system is a heavily engineered system with fixed planform and banks (and hence limited degrees of freedom of channel response) may have prevented the system from evading tipping behavior.