Stochastic Beach Width Prediction at a Recently Nourished Beach
M.O. Enschedé (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
Anna Kroon – Mentor (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
SGJ Aarninkhof – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
MA de Schipper – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
Wiebke Jäger – Graduation committee member (Royal Boskalis Westminster)
O Morales Napoles – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
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Abstract
This study examines a method for a stochastic beach width prediction with a process-based morphodynamic model. This is carried out by a case study at the Hondsbossche Dunes, after a beach nourishment in March 2018. Stochastic forcing conditions are generated for the location of the Hondsbossche Dunes. These stochastic forcing conditions consist of time series with significant wave heights, peak wave periods, wave directions, and water levels. The basis of the method for generating these stochastic forcing conditions are Autoregressive-Moving Average (ARMA) models. The morphological change of the beach width due to these stochastic forcing conditions is modelled using an XBeach model. This results in a range of the possible development of the beach width, with the probability of occurrence. With the method examined in this study, a more realistic idea of the possible future beach width development can be given.