Green Hydrogen in HIC Rotterdam: Enabling Competitive Domestic Production vs. Imports
A Techno-Economic Modelling (Linny-R) Approach
G.A.O. Kuijl (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Gijsbert Korevaar – Mentor (TU Delft - Energy and Industry)
P.W.G. Bots – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Policy Analysis)
L.J. de Vries – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Energy and Industry)
Mark Franken – Graduation committee member
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Abstract
The Netherlands targets a climate-neutral energy system by 2050, with offshore wind electricity and green hydrogen as key pillars. As an emerging “hydrogen hub”, the Port of Rotterdam is central to this transition. However, domestic hydrogen production in this area is currently economically challenging, while importing hydrogen—mainly via ammonia—is often cheaper but increases dependence on foreign supply.
This thesis examines the techno-economic and strategic conditions under which domestic hydrogen production can compete with imports while strengthening the interconnected hydrogen–electricity system. A location-specific model for the Harbour Industrial Cluster Rotterdam was developed in Linny-R and applied using an exploratory modelling and analysis (EMA) approach. Over 400 scenarios were run to test the system under a range of techno-economic conditions.
The results show three main findings:
1. Domestic production is cost-competitive in only 18% of scenarios, requiring favourable PPA prices, reduced capital costs, and moderately high import prices.
2. System resilience is mainly limited by electricity availability, not hydrogen availability. Robust performance requires grid supply capacity of at least 5.5 GWe, electricity storage of at least 35 GWhe, and stable prices.
3. Domestic production provides strategic value as a buffer against import disruptions and price shocks, even when it is not the cheapest option.
The study concludes that a hybrid system combining domestic production and imports is the most resilient option under uncertainty. It specifies the conditions for cost-competitiveness, highlights risks in PPA design under volatile prices, and offers a policy framework for ports aiming to combine economic efficiency with strategic security.