P.W.G. Bots
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1
Policy Analysis of Multi-Actor Systems
Second edition
Book
(2022)
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B. Enserink, P.W.G. Bots, C. van Daalen, L.M. Hermans, L.J. Kortmann, Joop Koppenjan, J.H. Kwakkel, M.P.M. Ruijgh-van der Ploeg, J Slinger, W.A.H. Thissen
Policy of Multi-Actor Systems is an introduction into the art of craft of problem exploration and problem structuring. It positions policy analysis as a scientific discipline focused on systems analysis in a multi-actor context to support better informed decision-making. The approach presented in this book is considered to be the cornerstone of the curricula of the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology and underlies the research on (the governance of) socio-technical systems. Systems thinking applied in a multi-actor environment and its inherent multi-disciplinary character is what makes this work stand out from traditional hard- and soft systems approaches. The core of the book is dedicated to systems analysis, actor- or stakeholder-analysis and discusses methods for dealing with uncertainty. These analytical activities combined lead to a rich problem description and to plans for further research. Due to the stepwise approach this book serves as a basis for any problem analysis both for our bachelor and master students, our alumni worldwide and any interested practitioners.
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Policy of Multi-Actor Systems is an introduction into the art of craft of problem exploration and problem structuring. It positions policy analysis as a scientific discipline focused on systems analysis in a multi-actor context to support better informed decision-making. The approach presented in this book is considered to be the cornerstone of the curricula of the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology and underlies the research on (the governance of) socio-technical systems. Systems thinking applied in a multi-actor environment and its inherent multi-disciplinary character is what makes this work stand out from traditional hard- and soft systems approaches. The core of the book is dedicated to systems analysis, actor- or stakeholder-analysis and discusses methods for dealing with uncertainty. These analytical activities combined lead to a rich problem description and to plans for further research. Due to the stepwise approach this book serves as a basis for any problem analysis both for our bachelor and master students, our alumni worldwide and any interested practitioners.
Nuts are considered an important protein source in sustainable dietary patterns but are seldom studied in detail. Here a multi-criteria decision analysis was used to rank 10 nuts and seeds against 11 environmental, nutritional, and social criteria and provide greater insight into the sustainability impacts of this food group. Weights were defined based on correlation and variance between indicator values, and values were aggregated with a partially non-compensatory method. Several sensitivity analyses tested various sources of uncertainty through the use of country-level data, the use of a fully compensatory aggregation method, and changes to criteria weights. Walnuts and sunflower seeds performed consistently well across sustainability criteria and were ranked in the top two positions in the baseline assessment and most sensitivity analyses. In contrast, cashews performed relatively poorly across most criteria, and were ranked last. Dietary shifts in favor of more sustainable nuts can improve the overall environmental, nutritional and social impacts of nut production and consumption by an average of 23%. Although increasing consumption of walnuts and sunflower seeds may lead to improved sustainability outcomes for total global nut consumption, more research is needed to deepen the understanding of the complex socio-economic factors impacting nut and seed sustainability. The social risk assessment method used in this study can also inform future social impact measurement methods for other food groups.
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Nuts are considered an important protein source in sustainable dietary patterns but are seldom studied in detail. Here a multi-criteria decision analysis was used to rank 10 nuts and seeds against 11 environmental, nutritional, and social criteria and provide greater insight into the sustainability impacts of this food group. Weights were defined based on correlation and variance between indicator values, and values were aggregated with a partially non-compensatory method. Several sensitivity analyses tested various sources of uncertainty through the use of country-level data, the use of a fully compensatory aggregation method, and changes to criteria weights. Walnuts and sunflower seeds performed consistently well across sustainability criteria and were ranked in the top two positions in the baseline assessment and most sensitivity analyses. In contrast, cashews performed relatively poorly across most criteria, and were ranked last. Dietary shifts in favor of more sustainable nuts can improve the overall environmental, nutritional and social impacts of nut production and consumption by an average of 23%. Although increasing consumption of walnuts and sunflower seeds may lead to improved sustainability outcomes for total global nut consumption, more research is needed to deepen the understanding of the complex socio-economic factors impacting nut and seed sustainability. The social risk assessment method used in this study can also inform future social impact measurement methods for other food groups.
This chapter discusses the threefold challenge of designing effective interventions in engineering systems that are constantly changing: (1) a designed socio-technical artefact should improve system performance not only under present conditions, but it must also be functional when conditions change, be it autonomously or due to interventions performed by others, and (2) the actual intervention of implementing the artefact should be planned such that it does not disrupt functional processes elsewhere, while (3) the implementation process should be impervious to such contingent processes. To meet this challenge, engineers can deploy different strategies: design strategies that will enhance the robustness of an artefact, its flexibility, or its capacity for (planned) evolution; strategies that will stabilise the context of the artefact; and implementation strategies that will contain and shield the intervention. This chapter reviews these strategies, discusses how they relate to systems engineering methodologies, and then highlights exploratory modeling and participatory modeling as methods for ex ante evaluation of interventions in dynamic engineering systems.
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This chapter discusses the threefold challenge of designing effective interventions in engineering systems that are constantly changing: (1) a designed socio-technical artefact should improve system performance not only under present conditions, but it must also be functional when conditions change, be it autonomously or due to interventions performed by others, and (2) the actual intervention of implementing the artefact should be planned such that it does not disrupt functional processes elsewhere, while (3) the implementation process should be impervious to such contingent processes. To meet this challenge, engineers can deploy different strategies: design strategies that will enhance the robustness of an artefact, its flexibility, or its capacity for (planned) evolution; strategies that will stabilise the context of the artefact; and implementation strategies that will contain and shield the intervention. This chapter reviews these strategies, discusses how they relate to systems engineering methodologies, and then highlights exploratory modeling and participatory modeling as methods for ex ante evaluation of interventions in dynamic engineering systems.
Report
(2019)
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Igor Nikolic, Zofia Lukszo, Emile Chappin, Martijn Warnier, Jan Kwakkel, Pieter Bots, Frances Brazier
PrESTO
A peer review and peer assessment system with incentives for high quality learning
The PrESTO system is a peer review and peer assessment tool that allows large numbers of students to practice open-ended assignments, while keeping the workload of the teaching staff manageable. PrESTO was originally developed for a quantitative modeling course, but is applicable to any course with open-ended assignments that can be divided into successive steps. The software organizes the peer review and peer assessment workflow, and guides the students through the activities required in each step: review, give feedback on and assess the work of an anonymous predecessor, and then improve and extend it with a next step.
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The PrESTO system is a peer review and peer assessment tool that allows large numbers of students to practice open-ended assignments, while keeping the workload of the teaching staff manageable. PrESTO was originally developed for a quantitative modeling course, but is applicable to any course with open-ended assignments that can be divided into successive steps. The software organizes the peer review and peer assessment workflow, and guides the students through the activities required in each step: review, give feedback on and assess the work of an anonymous predecessor, and then improve and extend it with a next step.
Perspectives on policy analysis
A framework for understanding and design
Policy analysis is a multifaceted field in which a variety of different activities and ambitions have found a place. Some policy analysts conduct quantitative or qualitative research, while others reconstruct and analyze political discourse or set up citizen fora. Some policy analysts are independent researchers, some are process facilitators, while others act as political advisers. The debate on the discipline—for example on its foundations, underlying values and methods—is conducted in a fragmented way. This chapter provides a framework for positioning the different perspectives and for highlighting the implications of choosing a perspective when designing or evaluating a policy analysis project.
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Policy analysis is a multifaceted field in which a variety of different activities and ambitions have found a place. Some policy analysts conduct quantitative or qualitative research, while others reconstruct and analyze political discourse or set up citizen fora. Some policy analysts are independent researchers, some are process facilitators, while others act as political advisers. The debate on the discipline—for example on its foundations, underlying values and methods—is conducted in a fragmented way. This chapter provides a framework for positioning the different perspectives and for highlighting the implications of choosing a perspective when designing or evaluating a policy analysis project.
The increase in variable renewable energy sources requires more flexibility in the power system. This could be provided by small distributed energy sources located at end-users. Aggregators can potentially exploit this flexibility by providing Primary Control Reserve (PCR) services to the Transmission System Operator, and congestion management services to Distribution System Operators. A simulation model based on Linear Programming is used to assess, for a case study in the Netherlands, whether such congestion management services are efficient. The results show that an aggregator can reduce the total system costs with 10-15% relative to traditional grid reinforcements, depending on price and depreciation of batteries, PCR remuneration, and wholesale electricity price.
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The increase in variable renewable energy sources requires more flexibility in the power system. This could be provided by small distributed energy sources located at end-users. Aggregators can potentially exploit this flexibility by providing Primary Control Reserve (PCR) services to the Transmission System Operator, and congestion management services to Distribution System Operators. A simulation model based on Linear Programming is used to assess, for a case study in the Netherlands, whether such congestion management services are efficient. The results show that an aggregator can reduce the total system costs with 10-15% relative to traditional grid reinforcements, depending on price and depreciation of batteries, PCR remuneration, and wholesale electricity price.
Book chapter
(2017)
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Olivier Barreteau, Pieter Bots, Guy Trebuil, Katherine Daniell, Michel Etienne, Pascal Perez, Cécile Barnaud, Didier Bazile, Nicolas Becu, Jean Christophe Castella, William’s Daré
This chapter aims to describe the diversity of participatory approaches in relation to social simulations, with a focus on the interactions between the tools and participants. We consider potential interactions at all stages of the modelling process: conceptual design, implementation, use and simulation outcome analysis. After reviewing and classifying existing approaches and techniques, we describe two case studies with a focus on the integration of various techniques. The first case study deals with fire hazard prevention in Southern France, and the second one with groundwater management on the atoll of Kiribati. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of participatory approaches.
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This chapter aims to describe the diversity of participatory approaches in relation to social simulations, with a focus on the interactions between the tools and participants. We consider potential interactions at all stages of the modelling process: conceptual design, implementation, use and simulation outcome analysis. After reviewing and classifying existing approaches and techniques, we describe two case studies with a focus on the integration of various techniques. The first case study deals with fire hazard prevention in Southern France, and the second one with groundwater management on the atoll of Kiribati. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of participatory approaches.
In the Netherlands, technical innovations for dike strengthening rarely become mainstream. A case study of the redesign process of the dike between Kinderdijk and Schoonhovenseveer suggests that benefitting from the creative capacity of contractors requires organizational learning.
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In the Netherlands, technical innovations for dike strengthening rarely become mainstream. A case study of the redesign process of the dike between Kinderdijk and Schoonhovenseveer suggests that benefitting from the creative capacity of contractors requires organizational learning.
Social-ecological systems (SES) are dynamic systems that continuously change in response to internal or external pressures. A better understanding of the interactions of the social and ecological systems that drive those dynamics is crucial for the development of sustainable management strategies. Dynamic models can serve as tools to explore social-ecological interactions; however, the complexity of the studied systems and the need to integrate knowledge, theories, and approaches from different disciplines pose considerable challenges for their development. We assess the potential of Ostrom’s general SES framework (SESF) to guide a systematic and transparent process of model development in light of these difficulties. We develop a stepwise procedure for applying SESF to identify variables and their relationships relevant for an analysis of the SES. In doing so we demonstrate how the hierarchy of concepts in SESF and the identification of social-ecological processes using the newly introduced process relationships can help to unpack the system in a systematic and transparent way. We test the procedure by applying it to develop a dynamic model of decision making in the management of recreational fisheries. The added value of the common framework lies in the guidance it provides for (1) a structured approach to identifying major variables and the level of detail needed, and (2) a procedure that enhances model transparency by making explicit underlying assumptions and choices made when selecting variables and their interactions as well as the theories or empirical evidence on which they are based. Both aspects are of great relevance when dealing with the complexity of SES and integrating conceptual backgrounds from different disciplines. We discuss the advantages and difficulties of the application of SESF for model development, and contribute to its further refinement.
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Social-ecological systems (SES) are dynamic systems that continuously change in response to internal or external pressures. A better understanding of the interactions of the social and ecological systems that drive those dynamics is crucial for the development of sustainable management strategies. Dynamic models can serve as tools to explore social-ecological interactions; however, the complexity of the studied systems and the need to integrate knowledge, theories, and approaches from different disciplines pose considerable challenges for their development. We assess the potential of Ostrom’s general SES framework (SESF) to guide a systematic and transparent process of model development in light of these difficulties. We develop a stepwise procedure for applying SESF to identify variables and their relationships relevant for an analysis of the SES. In doing so we demonstrate how the hierarchy of concepts in SESF and the identification of social-ecological processes using the newly introduced process relationships can help to unpack the system in a systematic and transparent way. We test the procedure by applying it to develop a dynamic model of decision making in the management of recreational fisheries. The added value of the common framework lies in the guidance it provides for (1) a structured approach to identifying major variables and the level of detail needed, and (2) a procedure that enhances model transparency by making explicit underlying assumptions and choices made when selecting variables and their interactions as well as the theories or empirical evidence on which they are based. Both aspects are of great relevance when dealing with the complexity of SES and integrating conceptual backgrounds from different disciplines. We discuss the advantages and difficulties of the application of SESF for model development, and contribute to its further refinement.
In this paper we compare 10 established frameworks for analyzing social-ecological systems. We limited ourselves to frameworks that were explicitly designed to be used by a wider community of researchers and practitioners. Although all these frameworks seem to have emerged from the need for concepts that permit structured, interdisciplinary reasoning about complex problems in social-ecological systems, they differ significantly with respect to contextual and structural criteria, such as conceptualization of the ecological and social systems and their interrelation. It appears that three main criteria suffice to produce a classification of frameworks that may be used as a decision tree when choosing a framework for analysis. These criteria are (i) whether a framework conceptualizes the relationship between the social and ecological systems as being uni- or bidirectional; (ii) whether it takes an anthropocentric or an ecocentric perspective on the ecological system; and (iii) whether it is an action-oriented or an analysis-oriented framework.
...
In this paper we compare 10 established frameworks for analyzing social-ecological systems. We limited ourselves to frameworks that were explicitly designed to be used by a wider community of researchers and practitioners. Although all these frameworks seem to have emerged from the need for concepts that permit structured, interdisciplinary reasoning about complex problems in social-ecological systems, they differ significantly with respect to contextual and structural criteria, such as conceptualization of the ecological and social systems and their interrelation. It appears that three main criteria suffice to produce a classification of frameworks that may be used as a decision tree when choosing a framework for analysis. These criteria are (i) whether a framework conceptualizes the relationship between the social and ecological systems as being uni- or bidirectional; (ii) whether it takes an anthropocentric or an ecocentric perspective on the ecological system; and (iii) whether it is an action-oriented or an analysis-oriented framework.
Book chapter
(2013)
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O Barreteau, PWG Bots, G Trebuil, K Daniell, M Etienne, P Perez, C Barnaud, D Bazile, N Becu, JC Castella, W Dare