Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years
D. Paprotny (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk, Joint Research Centre (JRC))
Toni Sebastian (Rice University, TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
O Morales Napoles (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Bas Jonkman (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
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Abstract
Adverse consequences of floods change in time and are influenced by both natural and socio-economic trends and interactions. In Europe, previous studies of historical flood losses corrected for demographic and economic growth (‘normalized’) have been limited in temporal and spatial extent, leading to an incomplete representation of trends in losses over time. Here we utilize a gridded reconstruction of flood exposure in 37 European countries and a new database of damaging floods since 1870. Our results indicate that, after correcting for changes in flood exposure, there has been an increase in annually inundated area and number of persons affected since 1870, contrasted by a substantial decrease in flood fatalities. For more recent decades we also found a considerable decline in financial losses per year. We estimate, however, that there is large underreporting of smaller floods beyond most recent years, and show that underreporting has a substantial impact on observed trends.
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