Crime and Inflation in U. S. Cities
Richard Rosenfeld (University of Missouri–St. Louis)
Matt Vogel (TU Delft - OLD Urban Renewal and Housing, University of Missouri–St. Louis)
Timothy McCuddy (University of Missouri–St. Louis)
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Abstract
Objectives
The current study replicates prior national-level research on the relationship between crimes committed for monetary gain and inflation in a sample of 17 U. S. cities between 1960 and 2013. Methods A random coefficients model is used to estimate the effects of inflation on the change in acquisitive crime over time, controlling for other influences. Results The estimates yield significant effects of inflation on acquisitive crime rates in the 17 cities. City-specific coefficients reveal nontrivial variation across the cities in the significance, size, and impact of inflation on acquisitive crime.Conclusions Continued low inflation rates should restrain future crime increases in many US cities. U. S. monetary policy should be evaluated with respect to its effect on crime.