A Neural Network Approach for ETA Prediction in Inland Waterway Transport
Peter Wenzel (TU Delft - Transport Engineering and Logistics)
Raka Jovanovic (Khalifa University)
F. Schulte (TU Delft - Transport Engineering and Logistics)
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Abstract
Ensuring the accuracy of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) information for ships approaching ports and inland terminals is increasingly critical today. Waterway transportation plays a vital role in freight transportation and has a significant ecological impact. Improving the accuracy of ETA predictions can enhance the reliability of inland waterway shipping, increasing the acceptance of this eco-friendly mode of transportation. This study compares the industry-standard approach for predicting the ETA based on average travel times with a neural network (NN) trained using real-world historical data. This study generates and trains two NN models using historical ship position data. These models are then assessed and contrasted with the conventional method of calculating average travel times for two specific areas in the Netherlands and Germany. The results indicate by using specific input features, the quality of ETA predictions can improve by an average of 20.6% for short trips, 4.8% for medium-length trips, and 13.4% for long-haul journeys when compared to the average calculation.