Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections
Roderik S.W. van de Wal (Universiteit Utrecht)
X Zhang (Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR))
S. Minobe (Hokkaido University)
S. Jevrejeva (National Oceanography Center, Centre for Climate Research Singapore)
REM Riva (TU Delft - Physical and Space Geodesy)
C. Little (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.)
K. Richter (University of Innsbruck)
Matthew D. Palmer (Met Office)
More Info
expand_more
Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.
Abstract
Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.
help_outline