Shallow bays in the Caribbean, like Baie Orientale and Baie de L'Embouchure in Saint Martin, are often sheltered by coral reefs and covered by seagrass meadows. They provide valuable services as tourism and coastal protection. The ecosystems are linked through biological, chemical and physical processes. But they are under pressure due to sea-level rise. The response of one of the ecosystems to climate change could impact the other ecosystem. In order to predict the impact of sea-level rise on the biogeomorphology in Baie Orientale and Baie de L'Embouchure, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D Flexible Mesh is applied. The effect of seagrass meadows and coral reefs on both flow and waves are captured with this model. In this way, the long term change in average hydrodynamic conditions due to sea-level rise is determined depending on the response of the ecosystems. A wave-driven circulation is found in both bays with flows of 0.5 m/s over the reefs and currents of 0.2 m/s inside the bays. The hydrodynamic conditions are mainly determined by the reef height. Depending on the response of coral reefs to climate change and the amount of sea-level rise, the wave height inside the bays and the wave-induced currents increase. Under the worst-case scenario, where coral reefs degrade and seagrass meadows die, flow velocities increase by more than 100% in Baie de L'Embouchure and by 200% in Baie Orientale under a sea-level rise of 0.87 m. The significant wave height rises to 300% in Baie Orientale and doubles in Baie de L'Embouchure. But this increase of hydrodynamic stresses is not expected to lead to devastating damage to coral reefs and seagrass meadows. Instead, the response of coral reefs will be determined by changing water temperatures and ocean acidification. A shift in seagrass occurrence due to the changed hydrodynamics is expected. The long term impact of sea-level rise on the biogeomorphology of Baie de L'Embouchure and Baie Orientale seems to be limited. The ability to mitigate the impact of sea-level rise is shown and the resilience of the ecosystems proved, which is very promising for other shallow Caribbean bays that are threatened by sea-level rise.

Over the period 1901-2012, the average global sea surface temperature has increased by 0.89 °C due to climate change and it is expected to increase consistent with global warming. As a consequence, marine ecosystems have become more susceptible to change in species and ocean chemistry. Due to the increase in sea surface temperature, the ocean pH has decreased in all regions. The main driver for this development is the uptake of approximately 30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans (IPCC, 2014). In a warming ocean, populations of warm-water species grow and populations of cold-water species decline. Furthermore, declines in coral growth are observed (Poloczanska et al., 2016). Marine cloud brightening is a proposed way to counteract climate change. This geo-engineering technique brightens clouds by spraying aerosols in the air which act as cloud condensation nuclei in order to form cloud droplets. As a result, the albedo of the brightened cloud increases and more sunlight is reflected, reducing the global mean temperature (Latham et al., 2012). Although it is a potential way to counteract climate change, marine cloud brightening has never been applied on a large scale. Also, little is known about its feasibility. We determined how physical properties of sea salt aerosols, specifically the aerosol mean geometric radius, the aerosol number concentration and the modal standard deviation of the initial aerosol spectrum, relate to the albedo of the brightened cloud using a numerical cloud parcel model with input parameters (Glassmeier et al., 2020). For six different values of the initial aerosol mean geometric radius, the initial aerosol number concentration and the modal standard deviation of the initial aerosol spectrum, i.e. the variability in aerosol radius, three output variables were generated in time and height. These output variables were the mean radius of cloud droplets, the cloud droplet number and the relative supersaturation. The differences caused by varying the input parameters were interpreted for the output variables. Also, we generated the albedo for the six different values of each input parameter mentioned. The cloud droplet number depends on the aerosol number concentration. The higher the number, the more cloud droplets are formed. The cloud albedo does not depend on the initial aerosol mean geometric radius. The moment of activation depends on the initial aerosol mean geometric radius and the initial aerosol number concentration. The growth of the cloud droplets is mainly driven by condensation when variability in aerosol radius is small. The higher the initial aerosol number concentration, the higher the albedo of the brightened cloud. When the variability in radius is bigger, collision-coalescence occurs as the spectrum of cloud droplets consists of bigger radii which tend to collide and coalesce. This leads to bigger and heavier droplets which precipitate due to an increased mass, resulting in a decrease in cloud droplet number and a decrease in cloud albedo. To conclude, three relations between physical properties of sea salt aerosol and the cloud albedo were found. First, the aerosol mean geometric radius at start does not affect the cloud albedo. Secondly, we found that the higher the aerosol number concentration, the higher the cloud albedo. Furthermore, a higher modal standard deviation of the initial aerosol spectrum leads to a lower cloud albedo. We recommend further research on other types of aerosols, like organic matter and algae, and the effect of external forcing, like wind, on cloud brightening.

TheAmazon-Orinoco river plume is a buoyant freshwater lens of 1.2 × 106km2, which has been traced over 2000 km from the Amazon river mouthinto the Caribbean Sea and along the Lesser Antilles. The river plume iswarmer than the surrounding open-ocean waters, with temperaturedifferences up to 1.5 ∘C caused by a stratification-induced barrier layerinhibiting vertical mixing and coloured matter increasing solar energyabsorption. Due to its magnitude, the river plume affects thehydrodynamics and the oceanic conditions in the Western Tropical NorthAtlantic (WTNA) substantially, but its variations on interannual time scales andthe corresponding relation to local sea-surface temperature (SST) are notwell understood. The Caribbean Sea is a region of high ecological value as itis home to extensive coral reefs, which are especially sensitive topersistent high SST. Therefore, this study investigates the interannualvariability of the Amazon-Orinoco river plume and its relationship to SSTsin the Caribbean Sea and the WTNA. It is hypothesised that fresh anomaliesof the river plume salinity pattern are indicative of a more extensivetransportation of the heat contained in the river plume. As a result, itis expected that interannual variations of dominant river plume pathwaysaffect the magnitude and location of anomalous SSTs. To test thishypothesis, model reanalysis fields of oceanic conditions from 1993 to 2017are used to conduct statistical analyses. In this context, the river plumevariability is determined using specific regions of freshwater influenceestablished using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis ofanomalous sea-surface salinity (SSS). Cross-correlations analysis relatingthese EOF modes of with atmospheric processes show that the interannualvariability of the river plume is dominated by wind-inducedadvective transport and -mixing. Strong winds along the Brazilian shelfare related locally increased SSS, while a weak southward component makesfor extensive spreading of the low-salinity plume waters. Additionally, weshow that high river discharge affects SSS east of the Lesser Antillesafter a lag of three months. Through its modulation of these atmosphericprocesses, there is a strong indication that the El Niño-SouthernOscillation affects SSS variability in the main along-shelf northwestplume pathway, with low SSS 1–9 months after a La Niña event. DecreasedSSS are found in phases 2 and 3 of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whileincreased SSS was observed in phases 6 and 7. However, the evidence forthis relation is weak and should be investigated in further research. The results show that, opposed to the hypothesis,a more extensive river plume is not associated with higher SSTs in theCaribbean Sea. However, strong correlations are found between river plumesurface area and SSTs at a lag of 1 year. Based upon results of previousstudies, we argue that the river plume has the ability to pre-heat themixed layer in the WTNA leading to extreme temperatures in the followingyear. It is wise to conduct a Lagrangian parcel back-tracking experimentto verify this mechanism.

Coastal bays in the Caribbean accommodate different marine ecosystems, including seagrass meadows and coral reefs, which provide important ecosystem services. However, these marine ecosystems are endangered. Seagrass ecosystems have a key role in coastal bays, but despite their alarming rates of loss, they receive little attention compared to other marine ecosystems. This study aims to provide a better understanding of the role of seagrass ecosystems in coastal bays by assessing their impact on the morphodynamic behavior. In order to achieve this, an existing hydrodynamic model has been extended to include morphodynamics. Two different bays have been investigated: Baie Orientale and Baie de l’Embouchure (St. Martin). These bays represent a partially exposed and fully sheltered bay, respectively. Both regular wave conditions, as well as extreme storm conditions, have been investigated to understand the consequences of seagrass loss on coastal erosion for different environmental climates. The coastal erosion has been found to be more prominent in the exposed region, whereas the more sheltered areas are more resilient. The erosion takes place in shallow waters but remains limited under regular swell conditions. The increased wave energy, during the extreme storm event, increases the erosion rates considerably. However, the regular swell conditions are normative in shaping the morphological development of these coastal bays when longer timescales are considered. The seagrass counters erosion most effectively in the foreshore and much less in deeper regions. Removal of seagrass in the foreshore (between 1-3m) halves the sediment stabilization. In contrast, the sediment stabilization increases if the meadows are able to spread especially towards the shore. In addition, the wave energy and waveform have a significant impact on the sediment stabilization. The stabilization typically decreases for higher and shorter (storm) waves, whereas it increases for smaller and longer (swell) waves. The long-distance interactions between seagrass meadows and coral reefs have led to their mutual coexistence, which is also found to be beneficial for the erosion control of the coastal bays. The dissipation of wave energy on top of the reefs fosters the sediment stabilization by seagrass. Moreover, the impact of the reefs on sediment stabilization also increases in the presence of seagrass meadows due to the additional drag exerted by the seagrass. The seagrass meadows are typically more effective under swell waves, whereas the reefs are more dominant in the dissipation of storm waves. Seagrass meadows and coral reefs form thus a synergy, in which the stabilization of sediments provided by the individual ecosystems is facilitated, reinforced, and complemented by the proximate presence of the other ecosystem. Finally, the role of seagrass on sediment stabilization has been explored under climate change. The coastal erosion increases for the considered sea-level rise scenarios. The impact of the seagrass on sediment stabilization decreases when the bays, seagrass and reef ecosystems are not able to keep up with sea-level rise. The synergy between seagrass and reefs emphasizes that the responses of both ecosystems are of importance for the future of tropical sheltered bays and should therefore not be managed in isolation.

In this study an analysis of the efficacy of using satellite data, in the form of InSAR measurements, as an extension of the volcanic monitoring network on Saba and St. Eustatius is performed. For this research, data from three different satellites that operate at three different wavelengths are available: ALOS-2 (L-band SAR), Sentinel-1 (C-band SAR) and PAZ (X-band SAR). The data are analysed through the formation of interferograms that are obtained using the Delft Object-oriented Radar Interferometric Software (DORIS) and Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) performed following the Delft Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (DePSI) algorithm. The interferograms and PSI results differ strongly per satellite and are affected by the combined impact of several factors. In this study the impact of the misalignment of the master image used in the generation of the interferograms with respect to the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is discussed, as well as the impact of the incidence angle, the spatial resolution, the temporal resolution, the perpendicular baseline, the number of available images and the wavelength. The interferograms of ALOS-2 are of a good quality, however the low temporal resolution makes studying fast surface deformation difficult. However, they could be used to study surface changes in retrospect or to study slower processes, such as the pressurisation of a magma chamber, causing gradual surface deformation. The low spatial resolution makes the interferograms of Sentinel-1 difficult to interpret and the interferograms for the PAZ data currently show too large amounts of decorrelation to study surface deformations. The PSI analysis produces reliable results for Sentinel-1. The estimated linear deformation for the Persistent Scatterers (PS) shows constant values over both islands, which are centred around 0 mm/y and have low standard deviations. Therefore it is assumed, based on the data and prior knowledge about the area, that there is currently no deformation on either of the islands. The PSI analyses for the other two satellites do not provide reliable results, because the number of available images in the stacks is too low (only 10-12 images compared to the 116-123 available images for Sentinel-1). The PAZ data might be used in the future, when more images are available, however the low temporal resolution of the ALOS-2 data means that an appropriate stack cannot be acquired within the design lifetime of the satellite. The ALOS-2 interferograms and the PSI analysis for Sentinel-1 could thus at present be a useful addition to the ground-based monitoring network. When a larger stack of data for PAZ is available, the PSI analysis could potentially be conducted again in order to determine its use as a volcanic monitoring tool.

Ice, a pervasive element across the Solar System, holds immense importance in understanding the response of the Earth to ongoing climate change as well as the dynamics of planetary bodies. This dissertation investigates ice fractures on terrestrial and planetary ice bodies, focusing on their impact on the melting of ice shelves in Antarctica and their dynamics on Europa, one of Jupiter’s moons. The urgency to understand the behavior of terrestrial ice shelves under environmental forcing is driven by the ongoing climate crisis. Antarctica is experiencing a rapid loss of mass, primarily due to increasing ocean-induced melting at the base of its ice shelves in response to global warming. The release of glacier meltwater into the world’s oceans contributes to arising the global sea level. However, the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise are highly uncertain and the potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica could significantly accelerate sea-level rise throughout this century due to the instability of its ice shelves. Thus, accurately projecting Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level necessitates a better understanding of the processes behind the loss of its ice shelves. In this dissertation, I examine the thinning of Antarctic ice shelves caused by enhanced melting at their base due to warming oceans. Intrusion of ocean heat beneath the ice shelves indeed plays a crucial role in projecting their future. Through idealized ocean modeling using the Massachussetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), I simulate ocean dynamics under the ice, investigating the impact of fractures and ice front retreat on the sub-shelf ocean circulation. Results indicate that fractures may act as barriers, inhibiting the intrusion of warm water towards the inland sections of the ice shelves, and thereby reducing basal melt. Furthermore, I examine the impact of the separation of iceberg A-68 from the Larsen C ice shelf in July 2017 on the sub-shelf ocean dynamics. This specific retreat event leads to the redistribution of heat under the ice, resulting in enhanced melting in specific sections of the ice shelf, suggesting future destabilisation of Larsen C. These findings highlight the importance of considering updated ice-shelf coastlines to accurately project ocean circulation and its implications for ice shelf stability. Furthermore, this dissertation explores the dynamics of specific lineament features observed on the surface of Europa, which are identified as ice fractures. Although limited observations restrict our understanding of ice fracturing events on this moon, insights from studying terrestrial ice sheets provide valuable knowledge. By extend ing an existing terrestrial-based numerical model of fracture propagation on ice shelves, I show that some lineaments on the surface of Europa exhibit a behavior that is similar to ice fractures on Antarctic ice shelves. The model depicts the evolution of these lineament features as bursts of fracture propagation events interspersed with periods of inactivity, which is a typical behavior of fractures on terrestrial ice shelves. Overall, this dissertation shows the potential for synergy between Earth and planetary science. By leveraging advances in our understanding of physical processes on Earth, terrestrial-based models and theories contribute to expanding our knowledge of physics on other celestial bodies. This interdisciplinary approach, supported and validated by remote sensing and in-situ missions, is fundamental in order to advance our understanding of ice fractures, their interaction with the surrounding environment and their dynamics throughout the Solar System. On Earth, a better understanding of the dynamics of Antarctic ice shelves is imperative to correctly project Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level.@en

As a result of climate change, sea level is changing all over the world at unprecedented rates. Sea-level change can have significant impacts on coastal communities, infrastructure and global economy, as most of the major cities are located near to or at the coast. Rising sea levels can lead to, for instance, more severe and more frequent flooding, increasing coastal erosion and salt water intrusion. In addition, sea-level change can also influence coastal ecosystems, by altering the habitats of many plant and animals species. Therefore, it is crucial that we understand what is causing sea-level change and at what rate sea levels are changing. Global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of about 3.4 millimetres per year over the last 30 years. Regionally, however, sea level can be changing at a much higher or lower rate. That is because local processes, such as ocean dynamics and gravitational effects associated with continental ice mass changes, cause regional deviations from the global average. But what is causing sea level to change at a specific location? Is sea level changing because the oceans are warming, and thus expanding? Or because the ice from glaciers and ice sheets are melting? The attribution of sea-level change to these and other drivers can be done using a sea-level budget approach. Sea-level budget studies can be used to constrain missing or poorly known contributions and to validate climate models. While the global mean sea-level budget is considered closed within uncertainties, closing the budget on a regional to local scale is still challenging. In this thesis, I focused on the question: Can we close the regional sea-level budget in the satellite altimetry era on a sub-basin scale consistently for the entire world? For this, we need not only high quality observations of sea-level change and each component, but also of the uncertainties within each process. Therefore, in Chapter 2 and 3, I explored the main drivers of regional sea-level change, focusing on the uncertainty characterization of each component. I then looked at which spatial scale is optimal for analysing the regional sea-level budget, and compared the sum of the drivers with the total observed change in these regions in Chapter 4.@en

Machine learning is becoming an increasingly important tool for climate scientists, but hampered by lacking uncertainty quantification. Here, a machine learning approach for detecting patterns indicating a changing climate is combined with probabilistic modelling to retrieve uncertainty values. We train neural networks on climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation under historical and future scenarios. We find that the resulting so-called Bayesian neural network (BNN) has similar predictive strength to an Artificial neural network (ANN), with a post-year 2000 mean absolute error of 9.00 years for temperature, but over-fits less. The BNN is able to recognise temperature change starting in 1994, which is 14 years later than the ANN. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in found climate patterns are much higher than the patterns themselves, reducing their value for further use. This work demonstrates that BNNs are a suitable tool for quantifying uncertainties of patterns indicating a changing climate.

In this report a first assessment is made of the impact of hurricanes on Saint Martin. Two bays at the east coast of Saint Martin, Baie Orientale and Baie de L'Embouchure, are studied under the conditions of hurricane Irma and Maria, which both have passed over in September 2017. During these hurricanes the bays were exposed to large wind speeds up to 40 [m/s]. Also the bays were subject to runoff due to large rainfall. The runoff has been flowing into the bays as fresh water, but also as high saline waters. This due to the salt ponds which are located in the region. The model has been run in Delft3D and as result large wind-setup driven circulations were obtained. These circulations caused a drop of waterlevel during Irma and an increase under Maria. The saline and fresh waters discharged during the hurricanes were mostly kept onshore and is distributed over the two basins.