Because of its pronounced fresh signature, the properties of the northward-flowing Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Hence, understanding modifications of AAIW along its path is important. Here, we analyze AAIW changes along its path in the Caribbean Sea and assess whether vertical fluxes from background turbulence and from double-diffusive mixing in thermohaline staircases can explain these variations. We deduce the occurrence rate of staircases (7%) and estimate the flux ratio (Formula presented.) from Argo float profiles. In combination with vertical fluxes from background turbulence, these values are used in a steady-state advection-diffusion model to estimate the effective diffusivity of salt that arises from double diffusion (Formula presented.). This value for (Formula presented.) is similar to observed values (Schmitt, 2005, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1108678), implying the observed modification of AAIW in the Caribbean Sea may be attributable primarily to vertical mixing in the region itself.

Mesoscale anticyclonic eddies dominate the sea-surface height variability in the Caribbean Sea. Although it is well established that these anticyclones are formed near the eastern boundary of the Caribbean Sea, which is demarcated by the Lesser Antilles, the source of their anticyclonic vorticity remains unclear. To gain insight into this source, we analyze the fluxes of vorticity into the Caribbean at its eastern boundary using a high-resolution numerical model. We find that the anticyclonic vorticity in the eastern Caribbean Sea predominantly originates from regions where intense ocean currents flow close to the Lesser Antilles. More specifically, St. Lucia and Grenada are hotspots for vorticity generation. The local generation rate scales with the amplitude of the volume transport through the passages between these islands. This finding is in contrast with the view that anticyclonic North Brazil Current (NBC) rings in the Atlantic Ocean are the main source of anticyclonic vorticity in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Our analyses reveal that the direct contribution of the vorticity of the NBC rings is of lesser importance than the local generation. However, the collision of upstream NBC rings with the Lesser Antilles increases the volume transport through the passages into the Caribbean Sea, so that their presence indirectly leads to enhanced local production of anticyclonic vorticity. This process is an example of the importance of vorticity generation near topography, which is ubiquitous in the oceans, and expected to be important whenever currents and steep topography meet.

Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

The intensity of major storm events generated within the Atlantic Basin is projected to rise with the warming of the oceans, which is likely to exacerbate coastal erosion. Nature-based flood defence has been proposed as a sustainable and effective solution to protect coastlines. However, the ability of natural ecosystems to withstand major storms like tropical hurricanes has yet to be thoroughly tested. Seagrass meadows both stabilise sediment and attenuate waves, providing effective coastal protection services for sandy beaches. To examine the tolerance of Caribbean seagrass meadows to extreme storm events, and to investigate the extent of protection they deliver to beaches, we employed a combination of field surveys, biomechanical measurements and wave modelling simulations. Field surveys of seagrass meadows before and after a direct hit by the category 5 Hurricane Irma documented that established seagrass meadows of Thalassia testudinum remained unaltered after the extreme storm event. The flexible leaves and thalli of seagrass and calcifying macroalgae inhabiting the meadows were shown to sustain the wave forces that they are likely to experience during hurricanes. In addition, the seagrass canopy and the complex biogeomorphic landscape built by the seagrass meadows combine to significantly dissipate extreme wave forces, ensuring that erosion is minimised within sandy beach foreshores. The persistence of the Caribbean seagrass meadows and their coastal protection services during extreme storm events ensures that a stable coastal ecosystem and beach foreshore is maintained in tropical regions.

Thermohaline staircases are associated with double-diffusive mixing. They are characterized by stepped structures consisting of mixed layers of typically tens of metres thick that are separated by much thinner interfaces. Through these interfaces enhanced diapycnal salt and heat transport take place. In this study, we present a global dataset of thermohaline staircases derived from observations of Argo profiling floats and Ice-Tethered Profilers using a novel detection algorithm. To establish the presence of thermohaline staircases, the algorithm detects subsurface mixed layers and analyses the interfaces in between. Of each detected staircase, the conservative temperature, absolute salinity, depth, and height, as well as some other properties of the mixed layers and interfaces, are computed. The algorithm is applied to 487 493 quality-controlled temperature and salinity profiles to obtain a global dataset. The performance of the algorithm is verified through an analysis of independent regional observations. The algorithm and global dataset are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4286170.

Shallow tropical bays in the Caribbean, like Orient Bay and Galion Bay in Saint Martin, are often sheltered by coral reefs. In the relatively calm environment behind the reefs, seagrass meadows grow. Together, these ecosystems provide valuable ecosystem services like coastal protection, biodiversity hotspots, nursery grounds for animals and enhancing tourism and fisheries. However, sea-level rise imperils these ecosystems and the services they provide because of changing hydrodynamic conditions, with potential effects on the interdependencies between these ecosystems. By means of a hydrodynamic model that accounts for the interaction with vegetation (Delft3D Flexible Mesh), the impact of sea-level rise (0.87 m in 2100) is investigated for three scenarios of future reef development (i.e. keep-up, give-up and catch-up). If coral reefs cannot keep up with sea-level rise, the wave height and flow velocity increase significantly within associated bays, with the wave height doubling locally in case of eroding reefs in our model simulations. Since the presence of seagrass strongly depends on the hydrodynamic conditions, the response of seagrass to the future hydrodynamic conditions is projected using a habitat suitability model that is based on a logistic regression. The spatial character of the bays determines the response of seagrass. In Orient Bay, which is deeper and partly exposed to higher waves, the seagrass will likely migrate from the deeper parts to shallow areas that become suitable for seagrass because of the surf zone moving landward. In contrast, the conditions for seagrass worsen in Galion Bay for the catch-up and give-up scenario; due to the shallowness of this bay, the seagrass cannot escape to more suitable areas, resulting in significant seagrass loss. It is shown that healthy coastal ecosystems are able to limit the change in hydrodynamic conditions due to sea-level rise. Therefore, preserving these ecosystems is key for ensuring the resilience of shallow tropical bays to sea-level rise and maintaining their ecosystem services.

The mesoscale variability in the Caribbean Sea is dominated by anticyclonic eddies that are formed in the eastern part of the basin. These anticyclones intensify on their path westward while they pass the coastal upwelling region along the Venezuelan and Colombian coast. In this study, we used a regional model to show that this westward intensification of Caribbean anticyclones is steered by the advection of cold upwelling filaments. Following the thermal wind balance, the increased horizontal density gradients result in an increase in the vertical shear of the anticyclones and in their westward intensification. To assess the impact of variations in upwelling on the anticyclones, several simulations were performed in which the northward Ekman transport (and thus the upwelling strength) is altered. As expected, stronger (weaker) upwelling is associated with stronger (weaker) offshore cooling and a stronger (weaker) westward intensification of the anticyclones. Moreover, the simulations with weaker upwelling show farther advection of the Amazon and Orinoco River plumes into the basin. As a result, in these simulations the horizontal density gradients were predominantly set by horizontal salinity gradients. The importance of the horizontal density gradients driven by temperature, which are associated with the upwelling, increased with increasing upwelling strength. The results of this study highlight that both upwelling and the advection of the river plumes affect the life cycle of mesoscale eddies in the Caribbean Sea.

In the Caribbean Sea, mesoscale anticyclonic ocean eddies impact the local ecosystem by mixing of low salinity river outflow with the nutrient-rich waters upwelling along the Venezuelan and Colombian coast. To gain insight into the physics and the ecological impact of these anticyclones, we performed a combined hydrographic and biological survey of one Caribbean anticyclone in February 2018. We found that the anticyclone had a radius of 90 km and was surface intensified with the strongest velocities (0.72 m/s) in the upper 150 m of the water column. Below, isopycnal displacements were found down to 700 dbar. The core of the anticyclone entrained waters from the Orinoco River plume and contained slightly elevated chlorophyll concentrations compared to the surroundings. At the edge of the anticyclone we observed higher densities of flying fish but not higher densities of predators like seabirds and cetaceans. Below the surface, a strong temperature inversion (0.98 °C) was present within a barrier layer. In addition, we found thermohaline staircases that originated from double diffusion processes within Tropical Atlantic Central Water.

The Yucatan Channel connects the Caribbean Sea with the Gulf of Mexico and is the main outflow region of the Caribbean Sea. Moorings in the Yucatan Channel show high-frequent variability in kinetic energy (50–100 days) and transport (20–40 days), but the physical mechanisms controlling this variability are poorly understood. In this study, we show that the short-term variability in the Yucatan Channel transport has an upstream origin and arises from processes in the North Brazil Current. To establish this connection, we use data from altimetry and model output from several high resolution global models. A significant 40–70 day variability is found in the sea surface height in the North Brazil Current retroflection region with a propagation toward the Lesser Antilles. The frequency of variability is generated by intrinsic processes associated with the shedding of eddies, rather than by atmospheric forcing. This sea surface height variability is able to pass the Lesser Antilles, it propagates westward with the background ocean flow in the Caribbean Sea and finally affects the variability in the Yucatan Channel volume transport.