TheAmazon-Orinoco river plume is a buoyant freshwater lens of 1.2 × 10⁶km², which has been traced over 2000 km from the Amazon river mouthinto the Caribbean Sea and along the Lesser Antilles. The river plume iswarmer than the surrounding open-ocean waters, with temperaturedifferences up to 1.5 ∘C caused by a stratification-induced barrier layerinhibiting vertical mixing and coloured matter increasing solar energyabsorption. Due to its magnitude, the river plume affects thehydrodynamics and the oceanic conditions in the Western Tropical NorthAtlantic (WTNA) substantially, but its variations on interannual time scales andthe corresponding relation to local sea-surface temperature (SST) are notwell understood. The Caribbean Sea is a region of high ecological value as itis home to extensive coral reefs, which are especially sensitive topersistent high SST. Therefore, this study investigates the interannualvariability of the Amazon-Orinoco river plume and its relationship to SSTsin the Caribbean Sea and the WTNA. It is hypothesised that fresh anomaliesof the river plume salinity pattern are indicative of a more extensivetransportation of the heat contained in the river plume. As a result, itis expected that interannual variations of dominant river plume pathwaysaffect the magnitude and location of anomalous SSTs. To test thishypothesis, model reanalysis fields of oceanic conditions from 1993 to 2017are used to conduct statistical analyses. In this context, the river plumevariability is determined using specific regions of freshwater influenceestablished using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis ofanomalous sea-surface salinity (SSS). Cross-correlations analysis relatingthese EOF modes of with atmospheric processes show that the interannualvariability of the river plume is dominated by wind-inducedadvective transport and -mixing. Strong winds along the Brazilian shelfare related locally increased SSS, while a weak southward component makesfor extensive spreading of the low-salinity plume waters. Additionally, weshow that high river discharge affects SSS east of the Lesser Antillesafter a lag of three months. Through its modulation of these atmosphericprocesses, there is a strong indication that the El Niño-SouthernOscillation affects SSS variability in the main along-shelf northwestplume pathway, with low SSS 1–9 months after a La Niña event. DecreasedSSS are found in phases 2 and 3 of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whileincreased SSS was observed in phases 6 and 7. However, the evidence forthis relation is weak and should be investigated in further research.
The results show that, opposed to the hypothesis,a more extensive river plume is not associated with higher SSTs in theCaribbean Sea. However, strong correlations are found between river plumesurface area and SSTs at a lag of 1 year. Based upon results of previousstudies, we argue that the river plume has the ability to pre-heat themixed layer in the WTNA leading to extreme temperatures in the followingyear. It is wise to conduct a Lagrangian parcel back-tracking experimentto verify this mechanism.

Tropical cyclones have the ability to very quickly increase in strength. This process is called rapid intensification and as a result, tropical cyclones can transform into hurricanes. Rapid intensification is related to the availability of heat and the amount of negative feedback of the ocean on the tropical cyclone. Negative feedback results in the weakening of the tropical cyclone. Cyclones passing over a warm ocean anomaly have access to more heat and due to the relatively high temperatures, the amount of negative feedback is reduced considerably. A necessary condition for rapid intensification is therefore the presence of a warm ocean anomaly, often being warm core eddies. This paper relates the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Matthew to the presence of warm core eddies in the track of Matthew. Results show that there is no extensive evidence found for the presence of a warm core eddy before rapid intensification took place. Although maps of the sea surface height and sea surface temperature indicate the possible existence of a warm core eddy, surface velocities do not show the characteristic rotation flow of an eddy. The enthalpy flux is considerably large just before the rapid intensification of Matthew indicating that the negative feedback by the ocean is reduced and heat is available for transport. The rapid intensification of Matthew might be linked to other physical mechanisms that have been overlooked. Possible mechanisms identified are the Amazon-Orinoco river plume and La Ni˜na. Further studies on the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Matthew should therefore take into account these mechanisms and study their influence on rapid intensification.