A study on the environmental state of the Caribbean Sea in relation to the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Matthew

Abstract

Tropical cyclones have the ability to very quickly increase in strength. This process is called rapid intensification and as a result, tropical cyclones can transform into hurricanes. Rapid intensification is related to the availability of heat and the amount of negative feedback of the ocean on the tropical cyclone. Negative feedback results in the weakening of the tropical cyclone. Cyclones passing over a warm ocean anomaly have access to more heat and due to the relatively high temperatures, the amount of negative feedback is reduced considerably. A necessary condition for rapid intensification is therefore the presence of a warm ocean anomaly, often being warm core eddies. This paper relates the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Matthew to the presence of warm core eddies in the track of Matthew. Results show that there is no extensive evidence found for the presence of a warm core eddy before rapid intensification took place. Although maps of the sea surface height and sea surface temperature indicate the possible existence of a warm core eddy, surface velocities do not show the characteristic rotation flow of an eddy. The enthalpy flux is considerably large just before the rapid intensification of Matthew indicating that the negative feedback by the ocean is reduced and heat is available for transport. The rapid intensification of Matthew might be linked to other physical mechanisms that have been overlooked. Possible mechanisms identified are the Amazon-Orinoco river plume and La Ni˜na. Further studies on the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Matthew should therefore take into account these mechanisms and study their influence on rapid intensification.