Do we still need office buildings?

Four explorative scenarios for Dutch offices in 2050

Master thesis (2024)

Authors

S. Memović Architecture and the Built Environment

Contributors

H.J.M. Vande Putte Real Estate Management - Architecture and the Built Environment (supervisor 1)
J.S.J. Koolwijk Design & Construction Management - Architecture and the Built Environment (supervisor 2)
R.C. Rocco de Campos Pereira Spatial Planning and Strategy - Architecture and the Built Environment (coach)
Faculty
Architecture and the Built Environment
Copyright: © 2024 Samir Memović
More Info
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Published Date

19-01-2024

Language

English

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Faculty

Architecture and the Built Environment

Abstract

This study explores the use and demand for offices in the Netherlands in 2050. Employees and employers have not found a balance in hybrid working, resulting in significant hidden vacancy. This refers to office space that is leased but not utilized, leading to ineffective office management. Real estate managers lack a guide to formulate a future-proof strategy for their real estate portfolio. Therefore, this study examines four exploratory scenarios on how work could be conducted in 2050 and its implications for office demand. This helps map external developments that may influence the demand for offices. The central research question is: "How can societal trends influence the way people work and, therefore, the demand for offices?" In this study, human scale and technology use are identified as the two key uncertainties. Along these uncertainties, four scenarios have been developed: Human Hands, Bionic Man, Manual Machines, and Technological Domination. In each of these scenarios, there is a different balance between human and technology, resulting in distinct characteristics of offices. In the Human Hands scenario, the quantitative demand for offices increases, while in the other three scenarios, this demand decreases. Nonetheless, each scenario indicates that there will still be a demand for offices in the Netherlands in 2050.