Dynamics and Heterogeneity in Working from Home Behaviour
A Latent Transition Analysis of Weekly Commuting Profiles
E.L. Schepers (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
M. Kroesen – Mentor (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
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Abstract
Working from home (WFH) has changed commuting behaviour in the Netherlands, with office attendance increasingly concentrated on Tuesdays and Thursdays. This concentration poses a key challenge for Dutch peak-spreading policy, yet existing research consistently measures working from home as a frequency rather than a weekly structure, leaving the day-specific organisation of commuting behaviour largely unexplored. This study addresses this gap by conceptualising working from home as a weekly structure, applying latent class analysis (LCA) and latent transition analysis (LTA) to longitudinal survey data from the Landelijk Reizigersonderzoek (LRO). The data cover three annual waves (2023-2025) with a balanced panel of 1,026 respondents. Three distinct commuting profiles were identified: the Moderate Commuter (MC, 57%), the Intensive Full-Week Commuter (IFW, 30%), and the Tuesday and Thursday Commuter (TT, 13%). These profiles remained highly stable over time, with the vast majority of individuals staying in the same profile across consecutive measurement waves. None of the nine contextual policy factors examined reached statistical significance. However, directional patterns suggest that perceived improvements in working from home possibilities and public transport frequency are most strongly associated with transitions away from peak-day commuting among TT commuters. At the same time, perceived improvements in these factors reinforce peak-day concentration among IFW commuters. These findings suggest that generic improvements to working conditions or infrastructure are insufficient to redistribute peak commuting demand. Effective peak spreading may require targeted, day-specific interventions directed at the groups that contribute most to Tuesday and Thursday concentration.