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Decarbonizing a Polish district heating network using ambient and waste heat

A techno-economic analysis considering uncertainties in future energy prices and availability

Journal Article (2025)
Author(s)

Nyasha Grecu (Austrian Institute of Technology)

Stefan Strömer (Austrian Institute of Technology, TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)

Ralf Roman Schmidt (Austrian Institute of Technology)

Klara Maggauer (Austrian Institute of Technology)

Nicolas Marx (Austrian Institute of Technology)

Bernhard Mayr (Austrian Institute of Technology)

Wen Liu (Universiteit Utrecht)

Research Group
Energy and Industry
DOI related publication
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136641 Final published version
More Info
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Publication Year
2025
Language
English
Research Group
Energy and Industry
Journal title
Energy
Volume number
329
Article number
136641
Downloads counter
113
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Abstract

District heating (DH) systems can contribute substantially to the decarbonization of the heating sector by enabling the implementation of sustainable heating solutions such as ambient heat (AH) and waste heat (WH). However, these sources are subject to economic risks arising from uncertainties in future energy prices and availability. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis for a decarbonized DH network for a city in Poland, using a simulation model that evaluates levelized cost of heat (LCOH) across a wide range of heat supply portfolios including AH and WH sources. It considers uncertainties related to energy price and WH cessation scenarios as well as sensitivities related to WH prices, heat demand, and biomass availability. Results show that the DH system configuration plays a key role in determining the average cost, due to the relatively large share of CAPEX in the LCOH calculations, underscoring the importance of accurate investment cost assumptions. Further important factors are the development of the heat demand and the availability of biomass. The presence of low-cost industrial WH is beneficial. In general, there is a trade-off: minimizing average cost results in a higher economic risk.