On the Uncertainty of Space Debris Trajectory Predictions

Geul, J.

doi:10.4233/1b4b7d8b-56cc-49aa-9b98-615241e08799

On the Uncertainty of Space Debris Trajectory Predictions

Doctoral thesis (2023)

Authors

J. Geul Astrodynamics & Space Missions

Research Group

Astrodynamics & Space Missions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4233/uuid:1b4b7d8b-56cc-49aa-9b98-615241e08799

Uncertainty propagation Astrodynamics Space debris Interval analysis Conjunction analysis Re-entry prediction Regularisation

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Published Date

2023

Language

English

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Research Group

Astrodynamics & Space Missions

Abstract

The goal of the research is to improve space situational awareness (SSA) for space debris objects, and to make space operations more sustainable and remain possible in the future. Vital to this awareness is understanding which objects are present, through space surveillance and tracking (SST), and where these objects will be in the future, through orbit prediction and analysis. Therefore, the research specifically focusses on supporting conjunction analysis, which aims to predict which satellites have a high risk of collisions, and improving re-entry predictions, which indicate possible ranges of impact locations and epochs for satellites returning back to Earth.

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