An integrated view on the uncertainties of sea-level rise, hazards and impacts, and adaptation
Tim Henri Josephus Hermans (Universiteit Utrecht)
Renske De Winter (Deltares)
Joep Storms (TU Delft - Applied Geology)
Frances E. Dunn (Universiteit Utrecht)
Renske Gelderloos (Environmental Fluid Mechanics)
Ferdinand Diermanse (Deltares)
Toon Haer (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Dewi Le Bars (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
Marjolijn Haasnoot (Universiteit Utrecht, Deltares)
Ymkje Huismans (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering, Deltares)
Loes M. Kreemers (Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Eveline C. Van Der Linden (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
Stuart G. Pearson (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
Roelof Rietbroek (University of Twente)
Aimee B.A. Slangen (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Universiteit Utrecht)
Kathelijne M. Wijnberg (University of Twente)
Gundula Winter (Deltares)
Roderik S.W. Van De Wal (Universiteit Utrecht, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
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Abstract
While adapting to future sea-level rise (SLR) and its hazards and impacts is a multidisciplinary challenge, the interaction of scientists across different research fields, and with practitioners, is limited. To stimulate collaboration and develop a common research agenda, a workshop held in June 2024 gathered 22 scientists and policymakers working in the Netherlands. Participants discussed the interacting uncertainties across three different research fields: sea-level projections, hazards and impacts, and adaptation. Here, we present our view on the most important uncertainties within each field and the feasibility of managing and reducing those uncertainties. We find that enhanced collaboration is urgently needed to prioritize uncertainty reductions, manage expectations and increase the relevance of science to adaptation planning. Furthermore, we argue that in the coming decades, significant uncertainties will remain or newly arise in each research field and that rapidly accelerating SLR will remain a possibility. Therefore, we recommend investigating the extent to which early warning systems can help policymakers as a tool to make timely decisions under remaining uncertainties, in both the Netherlands and other coastal areas. Crucially, this will require viewing SLR, its hazards and impacts, and adaptation as a whole.
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