Dynamic Planning for Flexible Port Infrastructure after Panama Canal Expansion

A Real Case Study

Conference paper (2019)

Authors

O. Soto Reyes Panama Canal Authority
P. Taneja Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering - CEG
B. A. Pielage Witteveen+Bos
M van Schuylenburg IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
Research Group
Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2019 O. Soto Reyes, P. Taneja, B. A. Pielage, M. Van Schuylenburg
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784482629.028
Monte Carlo Simulation Adaptive Uncertainty Flexibility Opportunities Real Options Dynamic Forecasting Dynamic planning
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Published Date

2019

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering

Abstract

This paper presents a study carried out to first assess the impact of the Panama Canal expansion (PCE) on selected Caribbean ports, and thereafter, to examine how the ports can adapt in order to seize new opportunities created by the expansion. An applied case of long-term dynamic planning and flexibility in engineering design is presented for a new port terminal in Barranquilla, Colombia. Furthermore, this paper presents the results of a stochastic method for quantifying opportunities from containerized traffic using dynamic forecasting, real options analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation, within the framework and spirit of adaptive port planning under uncertainty.