Maritime sectors have always been dealing with uncertainties and disruptions. The COVID pandemic confronted the cruise industry with severe and wide-ranging challenges on port infrastructure, operation, and services. Understanding the port performance before, during, and aftermath of the disruption helps stakeholders to increase the preparedness and resilience of the port. Therefore, in this study, the impacts of the COVID pandemic on Icelandic ports are explored using secondary and primary data analysis. The results show that small ports are more affected by the pandemic. These ports require more operational and infrastructural preparedness to service cruise ships in the post-COVID era. However, the impact of the pandemic was less evident on the larger ports indicating that large ports face fewer challenges for servicing cruise ships under the pandemic.@en

Maritime sectors have always dealt with uncertainties and disruptions. The COVID pandemic confronted the cruise industry with profound, wide-ranging, and lasting challenges while disrupting normal operations. Although the cruise industry contributes to the implementation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs), resumption and sustainable cruising requires the industry to adapt to the challenges presented. To this end, the paper suggests adaptive actions for the cruise sector to respond to the pandemic and links the actions to the UN SDGs to highlight their sustainable contributions. A system thinking approach is applied and a literature review is conducted to identify suitable adaptive actions. This paper shows the importance of UN SDGs 3, 4 and, in particular, 17 for sustainable cruising. The results of this paper provide support for informed decision-making to increase the cruise industry’s sustainability. This paper recommends that stakeholders: 1- identify drivers and barriers of sustainable cruising, 2- adapt to changes and embrace the UN SDGs, as they provide a platform for realizing sustainability, and 3- use educational programs to improve and transfer knowledge on sustainable cruising between academia and policymakers.@en

There is a global trend of automation of container terminals. However, there is a lack of literature to guide automation projects for brownfield terminals. Therefore, the experiences and lessons learnt from historical brownfield automation of container terminals are a valuable source of information to guide future projects. This paper describes the brownfield container terminal automation projects carried out in recent years. For each project, the drivers, challenges, benefits, and drawbacks of automation were gathered using a questionnaire directed to operators of brownfield converted container terminals. The characteristics as to the terminal sizes and implemented solutions were gathered via a desk study. It was found that the main drivers for automation are operational cost reductions and higher productivity. However, the desired levels are not always reached and depend on the terminal conditions and the solutions adopted. The continuity of operations was also identified as a major challenge. Terminals have dealt with it either by following a phased, greenfield-like, or big bang approach. Most terminals have opted for semi-automated solutions (automation of yard equipment only); this resulted in fewer labor problems, improved vessel productivity, less required space, and better agility in dealing with disruptions. Most terminals have chosen either automated RMG or the automated version of their manned equipment for yard operations, although exceptions were observed. @en

Nowadays, the drive towards green field port development is accompanied by a general trend towards sustainable development. The location of a port is critical for its long-term success. However, port-related literature, until the publication of a recent PIANC report, offered limited guidance over a sustainable site selection process. A method for sustainable site selection of deep-sea ports is urgently required as most countries worldwide expand their port capacity. This paper presents a methodology for site selection of deep-sea ports based on sustainable design principles such as building with nature and ecosystem-based management, while taking into account stakeholder needs and values. It further applies the proposed methodology to a case study. Myanmar is a country in Southeast Asia requiring expansion of maritime infrastructure and six ports are being planned. The lessons learnt from the case study are used to further refine the proposed framework. The paper concludes that integrating perspectives of engineering, ecology, economy and governance in the site selection process can create added value for the port and the surroundings, thereby providing the port the license to grow. This research contributes to the advancement of port development by providing a practical, validated, and tested method for sustainable site selection, thus supporting broader sustainability goals.@en

Ports are complex engineering systems that have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. However, the ever-growing complexity in port sectors in a volatile environment creates a high degree of uncertainty in port planning projects. This study presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties in the port planning process. Stakeholder analysis, different methods of addressing uncertain developments, and SWOT analysis were jointly used to develop the framework. Effective actions were planned in response to opportunities and vulnerabilities derived from uncertainties that manifest in a projected lifetime. Face-to-face interviews with key stakeholders and literature review were conducted to identify uncertainties and planning horizons. The framework was applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results show that demand for aquaculture and cruise activities create the main uncertainties for the port network. Uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-term horizon, while in the middle-term horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success in a dynamic world. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty by facilitating adaptive port planning.

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Capacity plays a crucial role in a port’s competitive position and the growth of its market share. An investment decision to provide new port capacity should be supported by a growing demand for port services. However, port demand is volatile and uncertain in an increasingly competitive market environment. Also, forecasting models themselves are associated with epistemic uncertainty due to model and parameter uncertainties. This paper applies a Bayesian statistical method to forecast the annual throughput of the multipurpose Port of Isafjordur in Iceland. Model uncertainties are thus taken into account, while parameter uncertainties are handled by selecting influencing macroeconomic variables based on mutual information analysis. The presented model has an adaptive capability as new information becomes available. Our method results in a range of port throughput forecasts, in addition to a point estimate, and it also accounts for epistemic uncertainty, thus increasing the reliability of forecasts. Our results provide support for informed decision-making in capacity planning and management. Our forecasts show a constant linear growth of containerized throughput the period 2020–2025. Noncontainerized throughput declines rapidly over the same period.

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Ports form a vital link in the global maritime supply chain, and adherence to the UN sustainable goals in each port development and operation is all-important. Improving the sustainability performance of port infrastructure requires identifying all relevant aspects of sustainability, defining suitable performance measures, applying tools for quantification, and proposing intervention measures if needed. We present a framework for assessing and managing the sustainability performance of port infrastructure incorporating these elements. We apply the framework to quay walls in the Port of Rotterdam (PoR); however, the information to assess only four out of fourteen sustainability themes was available. This fact underlines the need for sustainability monitoring and reporting. We also present a case study of a quay wall in PoR. Based on the vision of PoR and literature, the sustainability theme ‘air pollutants’ was given priority, the selected performance measure being the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Dubocalc was chosen as a quantification tool and estimated a total emission of 1.9 kt of CO2eq for a 100-m length of quay wall over a 100-year lifecycle. The measures proposed to achieve climate neutrality in 2050 include using renewable energy for the Impressed Current Cathodic Protection and the temporary drainage systems, electrified transport and machinery, hydrogen as dredging fuel, and steel with hydrogen as a reduction-agent in the future. These could result in a total GHG reduction of 86% by the year 2050@en

The Building with Nature (BwN) approach developed by Ecoshape suggests that nature-based solutions can be sustainable and cost-effective alternatives for traditional engineering solutions. Widening the solution space by studying and understanding the physical and ecological system in the early stages of port planning and design is more likely to result in sustainable ports with opportunities for multi-functionality and respect for nature. This paper applies the BwN philosophy to a case study, i.e., the ongoing port development in Kuala Tanjung in Indonesia and examines the technical and financial feasibility of a nature-based concept, i.e., a mangrove breakwater instead of a traditional 'hard' breakwater. Mangroves can realize significant wave attenuation, and at the same time, they are productive eco-systems that can result in long-term benefits through multifunctional land use. A berm built of dredged material with a mild slope which 'grows' naturally by accretion behind permeable dams can create the right conditions for mangrove trees to grow. This mangrove protection can develop into a sustainable barrier which grows with the (relative) sea level rise by trapping sediments. A preliminary design was made on the basis of information available in literature. A rough cost comparison considering only the supply and placing of fill material showed that mangrove breakwater is about 25percent more expensive than a hard breakwater for the case under study. In view of the numerous port projects being planned in Indonesia, the technical and financial feasibility of mangrove breakwaters that can also enhance nature create added value for the surroundings is a promising finding.@en

Purpose
Port throughput analysis is a challenging task, as it consists of intertwined interactions between a variety of cargos and numerous influencing factors. This study aims to propose a quantitative method to facilitate port throughput analysis by identification of important cargos and key macroeconomic variables.

Design/methodology/approach
Mutual information is applied to measure the linear and nonlinear correlation among variables. The method gives a unique measure of dependence between two variables by quantifying the amount of information held in one variable through another variable.

Findings
This study uses the mutual information to the Port of Isafjordur in Iceland to underpin the port throughput analysis. The results show that marine products are the main export cargo, whereas most imports are fuel oil, industrial materials and marine product. The aggregation of these cargos, handled in the port, meaningfully determines the non-containerized port throughput. The relation between non-containerized export and the national gross domestic product (GDP) is relatively high. However, non-containerized import is mostly related to the world GDP. The non-containerized throughput shows a strong relation to the national GDP. Furthermore, the results reveal that the volume of national export trade is the key influencing macroeconomic variable to the containerized throughput.

Originality/value
Application of the mutual information in port throughput analysis effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty in the identification of important cargos and key influencing macroeconomic variables. Thus, it increases the reliability of the port throughput forecast.@en

Purpose: The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context. Design/methodology/approach: The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights. Findings: The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends. Research limitations/implications: The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework. Practical implications: The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments. Social implications: The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers. Originality/value: The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

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Policymakers need to make policies for an uncertain future, and policy analysts assist policymakers in choosing preferred courses of action. Despite a longstanding recognition that the futures field can contribute a great deal to policy analysis, futures work is not used to its full potential as an element of policy analysis. This is partly due to an absence of well-defined links between the fields and a common unambiguous typology. This paper proposes a framework for linking policy analysis, policymaking, and the futures field so that they can benefit mutually from a shared approach and tools. This integrated framework is intended to guide policy analysts on the appropriate use of futures approaches so that they can improve their analyses and contribute to better policies. At the same time, futures practitioners will be encouraged to align their approaches with the needs of policy analysts, thereby leading to increased uptake of futures work in policy analysis.@en

Long-term sustainable port development requires accounting for the intrinsic values of ecosystems. However, in practice, ecosystem considerations often only enter the planning and design process of ports when required by an Environmental Impact Assessment. At this late stage, most of the design is already fixed and opportunities to minimize and restore ecosystem impacts are limited. In this paper, we adopt a large-scale, ecosystem perspective on port development with the aim to identify ecosystem-based design alternatives earlier and throughout the planning and design of a port's marine infrastructure. We present a framework, termed the 'ecosystem-based port design hierarchy' (EPDH), to identify ecosystem-based alternatives at four hierarchical design levels: 1) alternatives to port developments, 2) port site selection, 3) port layout design, and 4) design of structures and materials. In applying the EPDH framework retrospectively to a case study of port expansion in Tema, Ghana, we establish that ecosystem considerations played only a limited role in identifying and evaluating alternatives at all four design levels in the case study, whereas more eco-friendly alternatives in terms of port layouts, structures, and materials are identified using the EPDH framework. This reveals that opportunities for ecosystem-friendly port designs may have been missed and demonstrates the need for and the potential added value of our framework. The framework can assist practitioners in earlier and wider identification of ecosystem-based alternatives for a port's marine infrastructure in future seaport developments and, hence, represents an important step towards more sustainable port designs.

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Multiple stakeholders with a wide range of objectives are engaged in a port system. Ports themselves are faced with many uncertainties in this volatile world. To meet stakeholder objectives and deal with uncertainties, adaptive port planning is increasingly being acknowledged. This method offers robust planning, and thereby, a sustainable and flexible port may be developed. The planning process starts with defining success in terms of the specific objectives of stakeholders during the projected lifetime of the port. In the present work, an integrated framework to reach a consensus on the definition of success, involving stakeholders with different influences, stakes and objectives, is presented. The framework synthesises the problem structuring method with stakeholder analysis and combines these with fuzzy logic to support decision-makers in formulating a definition of success in the planning process. Our framework is applied to the Port of Isafjordur, the third busiest port of call for cruise ships in Iceland. Values of stakeholders about port planning were structured around the value-focussed thinking method to identify stakeholder objectives. The highest level of agreement on the objectives, which is viewed here as success in port planning, was revealed by the fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making method. Success was defined, prioritising an increase in competitiveness among other planning objectives, such as effective and efficient use of land, increasing safety and security, increasing hinterland connectivity, increasing financial performance, better environmental implications, flexibility creation and increasing positive economic and social impacts.

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Large scale infrastructure, of which ports and related industrial complexes are a major part, can help to unlock the economic, social and ecological potential of delta regions. Large scale infrastructure planning traditionally follows a “building in nature” approach, focussing on impact minimization, mitigation and compensation. “Building with Nature” constitutes a radical shift from “building in nature”, by focussing on opportunities for ecosystem services development and the utilization of natural processes in realizing (part of) the functionality of the design. This paper investigates the potential of the Building with Nature approach for the development of sustainable ports by comparing an ‘in’ and ‘with’ nature master plan for the Kuala Tanjung port-industrial complex@en

The Maldives is a Small Island Developing State which depends on sea-borne transport connectivity for trade and inclusive nationwide growth. The high international freight costs to its small domestic market are aggravated by deficiencies in services and capacity in the Port of Male', the sole maritime gateway to the country. Male' City is the main hub for the distribution of goods for the whole country. It is densely populated, hence the movement and storage of goods within the city has exacerbated congestion. The gateway and distribution function of Male' port introduces bottlenecks and constraints to efficient transport and logistics in the Maldives. Moreover, due to the prevailing institutional arrangements, Maldivian ports have developed in an ad-hoc manner over the years. It is anticipated that the ports will not be able to accommodate future demand if current conditions are left to continue. This paper aims to develop an adaptive port master plan over the time horizon of 20 years, to address the above-mentioned issues. The tools for adaptive port planning were used to address uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the development of the masterplan. The basic plans encompass the development of Male' Commercial Harbour as an efficient gateway and distributor. A distribution network was designed to connect Male' with the regional ports. The actions to increase robustness and flexibility were translated into projects with no flexibility (ad-hoc), just-in-time flexibility and just-in-case flexibility. In summary, the 20-year vision for Maldivian ports is to become an international gateway port with an efficient ship to shore operation with fast and efficient domestic distribution via a roll-on/roll-off network connecting the far reaches of the country.@en

The dynamic and ever-increasing complex nature of a port system involves a variety of stakeholders with a broad spectrum of involvement and objectives. In the port master planning, to fulfill the objectives of the various stakeholders and manage conflicts and controversies, a stakeholder analysis is carried out. However, effective and timely engagement of the key stakeholders in the planning process is not an easy task. This paper presents a framework of stakeholder analysis for the case study of the Multi-Purpose Port of Isafjordur in Iceland to underpin the master planning process. The framework deals with a systematic procedure of identification, grouping and then static mapping of stakeholders by means of the power-interest matrix. Further, the fuzzy logic 3-dimensional decision surface was adopted for dynamic salience mapping of the stakeholders. A survey and face-to-face interviews were conducted as tools to collect input for the stakeholder analysis based on the elements of the port master planning. The elements include competitiveness, land use, environmental implication, safety and security, hinterland connection, economic and social impact, financial performance, and flexibility. This paper reveals that dynamic mapping provides a more accurate stakeholder analysis in the field of port master planning than do other methods. The result of the decision surface shows different saliences of key stakeholders, including legislation and public policy, and internal and external stakeholders in the master planning. Thus, in order to have effective and timely stakeholder inclusion throughout the port planning process, a different strategy of engagement with them should be applied.
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This paper presents a study carried out to first assess the impact of the Panama Canal expansion (PCE) on selected Caribbean ports, and thereafter, to examine how the ports can adapt in order to seize new opportunities created by the expansion. An applied case of long-term dynamic planning and flexibility in engineering design is presented for a new port terminal in Barranquilla, Colombia. Furthermore, this paper presents the results of a stochastic method for quantifying opportunities from containerized traffic using dynamic forecasting, real options analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation, within the framework and spirit of adaptive port planning under uncertainty.@en