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T. Vellinga
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1
Ship behavior during encounters in ports and waterways based on AIS data
From theoretical definitions to empirical findings
Currently, the research on ship behavior during encounters focuses on evasive behavior during specific situations with existing risks of collision. However, the preliminary selection of encounters to refine the presented ship behavior is biased. To obtain a full understanding of all ship behavior during different encounters in ports and waterways, the encounter is defined from the viewpoint of the spatial-temporal co-existence of ships in the same waterway segments during the same period. Based on this definition, this paper investigates ship behavior through the encounter process with other ships. The proposed approach starts from the moment when the distance in between is minimum as the critical moment to recognize ship behavior change (course alteration and speed change) based on the Sliding Window algorithm. Thus, the encounter process is identified by the key behavior feature point into phases, being before decision-making, before the critical moment, after the critical moment, and after being past and clear. The relative movement factors are calculated according to the behavior status of both ships to describe the conditions, timing, and objective of behavior change during the dynamic process of encounters. The empirical findings based on one-year Automatic Identification System data in the port of Rotterdam are presented. In the overtaking encounters, as the give-way ship, about 14% of the overtaking ships do not take any evasive actions. Among the ships with behavior changes, the preference for course alteration and speed change is equal. As the stand-on ship, about 87% of the overtaken ships take cooperative maneuvers to facilitate the encounter, in which deceleration seems the primary choice. The timing of overtaken ship's behavior change is later than overtaking ship. For overtaking ships, the objective of course alteration is a clear passing distance of about 5 times her beam, 100m for overtaken ships irrespective of her own size. Regarding speed, the overtaking ship aims to reach a relative speed of 0.3 times her own SOG, while the objective for the overtaken ship is fixed at around 2–3 m/s. In the encounters of ships sailing in the opposite direction, most of the ships take maneuvers to change their course or speed. However, within the influence distance of 2 km, over 76% of the ships do not take any evasive behavior, which implies a passing-by situation. Based on the recognized key feature points of behavior change, statistical tests show the objective of clear passing distance has been reached beforehand. The behavior change during head-on situations could be due to the precautionary behavior of officers onboard in case of interaction between ships. The findings enrich the knowledge of ship behavior during different types of encounters in real-life navigation, which can be further applied to simulation models for ship behavior in ports and waterways.
...
Currently, the research on ship behavior during encounters focuses on evasive behavior during specific situations with existing risks of collision. However, the preliminary selection of encounters to refine the presented ship behavior is biased. To obtain a full understanding of all ship behavior during different encounters in ports and waterways, the encounter is defined from the viewpoint of the spatial-temporal co-existence of ships in the same waterway segments during the same period. Based on this definition, this paper investigates ship behavior through the encounter process with other ships. The proposed approach starts from the moment when the distance in between is minimum as the critical moment to recognize ship behavior change (course alteration and speed change) based on the Sliding Window algorithm. Thus, the encounter process is identified by the key behavior feature point into phases, being before decision-making, before the critical moment, after the critical moment, and after being past and clear. The relative movement factors are calculated according to the behavior status of both ships to describe the conditions, timing, and objective of behavior change during the dynamic process of encounters. The empirical findings based on one-year Automatic Identification System data in the port of Rotterdam are presented. In the overtaking encounters, as the give-way ship, about 14% of the overtaking ships do not take any evasive actions. Among the ships with behavior changes, the preference for course alteration and speed change is equal. As the stand-on ship, about 87% of the overtaken ships take cooperative maneuvers to facilitate the encounter, in which deceleration seems the primary choice. The timing of overtaken ship's behavior change is later than overtaking ship. For overtaking ships, the objective of course alteration is a clear passing distance of about 5 times her beam, 100m for overtaken ships irrespective of her own size. Regarding speed, the overtaking ship aims to reach a relative speed of 0.3 times her own SOG, while the objective for the overtaken ship is fixed at around 2–3 m/s. In the encounters of ships sailing in the opposite direction, most of the ships take maneuvers to change their course or speed. However, within the influence distance of 2 km, over 76% of the ships do not take any evasive behavior, which implies a passing-by situation. Based on the recognized key feature points of behavior change, statistical tests show the objective of clear passing distance has been reached beforehand. The behavior change during head-on situations could be due to the precautionary behavior of officers onboard in case of interaction between ships. The findings enrich the knowledge of ship behavior during different types of encounters in real-life navigation, which can be further applied to simulation models for ship behavior in ports and waterways.
Journal article
(2022)
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Frederik R.S. Vinke, M. van Koningsveld, Cornelis van Dorsser, F. Baart, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, T. Vellinga
The river Rhine is one of Europe’s busiest waterways and is part of the Rhine-Alpine corridor. In 2018 the river experienced a severe low discharge extreme. This impacted the river’s transport capacity for a period of several months, causing shortages of source materials and fuels in regions far in-land. Historically, prolonged droughts of this magnitude are not uncommon. Concerns have been raised, however, that climate change may further increase their frequency and severity. Additionally the increased proportion of larger vessels in the overall fleet composition has made the supply of cargo via the river Rhine more vulnerable to reduced water depths. A better understanding of the risks and effects of sustained low water levels for Inland Waterway Transport network performance is therefore essential to enable sensible mitigation. An integral model that explicitly links the state of the river to supply chain performance at the scale of corridors, however, appears to be not yet available. This paper suggests a novel method to explicitly include the cascading effects of low discharge events (and mitigating measures) in climate risk assessments of waterborne supply chain performance, at system level. It is shown that its implementation can describe cascading effects and climate risks for fleet management and terminal operation.
...
The river Rhine is one of Europe’s busiest waterways and is part of the Rhine-Alpine corridor. In 2018 the river experienced a severe low discharge extreme. This impacted the river’s transport capacity for a period of several months, causing shortages of source materials and fuels in regions far in-land. Historically, prolonged droughts of this magnitude are not uncommon. Concerns have been raised, however, that climate change may further increase their frequency and severity. Additionally the increased proportion of larger vessels in the overall fleet composition has made the supply of cargo via the river Rhine more vulnerable to reduced water depths. A better understanding of the risks and effects of sustained low water levels for Inland Waterway Transport network performance is therefore essential to enable sensible mitigation. An integral model that explicitly links the state of the river to supply chain performance at the scale of corridors, however, appears to be not yet available. This paper suggests a novel method to explicitly include the cascading effects of low discharge events (and mitigating measures) in climate risk assessments of waterborne supply chain performance, at system level. It is shown that its implementation can describe cascading effects and climate risks for fleet management and terminal operation.
Impacts of wind and current on ship behavior in ports and waterways
A quantitative analysis based on AIS data
In ports and waterways, the impacts of external navigational factors may lead to serious incidents due to limited space for ship maneuvering. Using nautical traffic models, these incidents can be predicted in advance. In current studies of nautical traffic models, the impacts of wind and current on ship behavior are seldom considered when modeling the ship behavior in a port area. The numerical maneuvering models simulate the individual ship behavior under such impacts by calculating the hydrodynamic forces working on the ship's hull. However, the input, maneuvering particulars of individual ships, are not available in ports. In order to fill the knowledge gap of estimating ship behavior under external impacts without detailed ship maneuvering information, the impacts of wind and current on the observed dynamic ship behavior (speed over ground and leeway and drift angle) in ports and waterways have been investigated by analyzing Automatic Identification System data (showing ship paths over time) and the meteorological and hydrological data collected from the port of Rotterdam. The relation between unhindered speed variation and ship size is revealed. The regression analysis results on ships with similar size indicate the differences between wind and current impacts. Especially for small ships, the current impact on speed over ground outweighs the wind, while the wind influences the leeway and drift angle more than the current. Based on the quantified impact variation over ship size, the proposed impact mechanism explains the variance of speed over ground and leeway and drift angle. Some conventional sailing habits based on good seamanship, such as a series of small-angle alterations rather than direct turning at waypoints, are also revealed by the statistical analyses. Considering the variation of wind and current conditions in the study area, the analysis result provides generic quantitative insights into the wind and current impacts on the individual behavior of ships of different sizes. These mathematical formulations can be adopted in a microscopic nautical traffic model to include the impacts of external conditions.
...
In ports and waterways, the impacts of external navigational factors may lead to serious incidents due to limited space for ship maneuvering. Using nautical traffic models, these incidents can be predicted in advance. In current studies of nautical traffic models, the impacts of wind and current on ship behavior are seldom considered when modeling the ship behavior in a port area. The numerical maneuvering models simulate the individual ship behavior under such impacts by calculating the hydrodynamic forces working on the ship's hull. However, the input, maneuvering particulars of individual ships, are not available in ports. In order to fill the knowledge gap of estimating ship behavior under external impacts without detailed ship maneuvering information, the impacts of wind and current on the observed dynamic ship behavior (speed over ground and leeway and drift angle) in ports and waterways have been investigated by analyzing Automatic Identification System data (showing ship paths over time) and the meteorological and hydrological data collected from the port of Rotterdam. The relation between unhindered speed variation and ship size is revealed. The regression analysis results on ships with similar size indicate the differences between wind and current impacts. Especially for small ships, the current impact on speed over ground outweighs the wind, while the wind influences the leeway and drift angle more than the current. Based on the quantified impact variation over ship size, the proposed impact mechanism explains the variance of speed over ground and leeway and drift angle. Some conventional sailing habits based on good seamanship, such as a series of small-angle alterations rather than direct turning at waypoints, are also revealed by the statistical analyses. Considering the variation of wind and current conditions in the study area, the analysis result provides generic quantitative insights into the wind and current impacts on the individual behavior of ships of different sizes. These mathematical formulations can be adopted in a microscopic nautical traffic model to include the impacts of external conditions.
Ports represent a key element in the maritime transportation chain. Larger vessels and higher traffic volumes in ports might result in higher risks at the navigational level. Thus, the dire need for a comprehensive and efficient risk assessment method for ports is felt. Many methodologies have been proposed so far, but their application to aggregated vessel traffic risks for the overall assessment of ports is not developed yet. Hence, the development of an approach for the appraisal of the vessel traffic risks is still a challenging issue. This research aims to develop an assessment methodology to appraise the potential risk of accident occurrence in port areas at an aggregated level by creating a ‘Nautical Port Risk Index’ (NPRI). After identifying the main nautical risks in ports, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used to derive the risk perception (RP) weights for each criterion from data collected through surveys to expert navigators. The consequences related to each nautical risk are identified in consultation with risk experts. By combining the RP values and the consequence of each criterion for a time period, the NPRI is calculated. The risks in the Port of Rotterdam are presented in a case study, and the method has been validated by checking the results with experts in assessing nautical port risks from the Port of Rotterdam Authority. This method can be used to assess any new port design, the performance of different vessel traffic management measures, changes in the fleet composition, or existent ports using the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data.
...
Ports represent a key element in the maritime transportation chain. Larger vessels and higher traffic volumes in ports might result in higher risks at the navigational level. Thus, the dire need for a comprehensive and efficient risk assessment method for ports is felt. Many methodologies have been proposed so far, but their application to aggregated vessel traffic risks for the overall assessment of ports is not developed yet. Hence, the development of an approach for the appraisal of the vessel traffic risks is still a challenging issue. This research aims to develop an assessment methodology to appraise the potential risk of accident occurrence in port areas at an aggregated level by creating a ‘Nautical Port Risk Index’ (NPRI). After identifying the main nautical risks in ports, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used to derive the risk perception (RP) weights for each criterion from data collected through surveys to expert navigators. The consequences related to each nautical risk are identified in consultation with risk experts. By combining the RP values and the consequence of each criterion for a time period, the NPRI is calculated. The risks in the Port of Rotterdam are presented in a case study, and the method has been validated by checking the results with experts in assessing nautical port risks from the Port of Rotterdam Authority. This method can be used to assess any new port design, the performance of different vessel traffic management measures, changes in the fleet composition, or existent ports using the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data.
Inland Water Transport (IWT) is one of the modalities for freight transport between the ports of Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp and the hinterland in Germany. Transport over water between these areas is possible as a result of the presence of the Rhine, but more important are the navigation conditions on the river. As a result of climate change, these navigable conditions on the river will deteriorate in the future by lower extreme river discharges and sea level rise. The available navigable water depth will decrease on the Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn en IUssel due to lower river discharges in dry periods, while the available head clearance under bridges becomes smaller for transport of containers in the Rhine-Meuse-delta. The worsening navigable conditions are amplified by long term-processes in the river system and trends in the freight transport sector. This will lead to the reduction of load capacity of vessels, an increase of travel time and travel costs. Stakeholders in the IWT-sector (port authorities, waterway authorities, shippers and barge operators) have the urgency to find out where potential bottlenecks may arise in the future and to develop mitigation measures. In the current literature numerical models are applied to assess the impact of climate change on Inland Water Transport for specific relations or processes. Simulations with those models is executed for one climate scenario or one time horizon for a larger part of the IWT -network. Other researchers make use of analytical relations applied on one or two bottlenecks for multiple climate scenarios and time horizons. An integral assessment to setup an overview of potential bottlenecks for multiple climate scenarios and time horizons based on an integrated model is lacking. In this project an integrated assessment meta-model is built to examine navigation conditions as a result of climate change and the impact on IWT. The focus of the first part of the project is to assess the climate change impacts on IWT. In the second part the aim is to develop and assess a number of mitigation measures. In this paper, first, an analysis of potential bottlenecks is executed. As a case study, the integrated assessment meta-model is applied on the river branches Waal and IUssel for one climate scenario and time horizon. The results give insight into the locations where problems will occur for navigation conditions and mitigation measures are needed to improve the conditions in case of low river discharges. The method and model will be applied for the assessment of mitigation measures in the second phase of the research project. The outcomes of the two research phases shall be used to define policies by waterway manager Rijkswaterstaat for efficient IWT in the future over the river Rhine or to develop new logistic concepts by ports, shipping companies or barge operators.
...
Inland Water Transport (IWT) is one of the modalities for freight transport between the ports of Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp and the hinterland in Germany. Transport over water between these areas is possible as a result of the presence of the Rhine, but more important are the navigation conditions on the river. As a result of climate change, these navigable conditions on the river will deteriorate in the future by lower extreme river discharges and sea level rise. The available navigable water depth will decrease on the Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn en IUssel due to lower river discharges in dry periods, while the available head clearance under bridges becomes smaller for transport of containers in the Rhine-Meuse-delta. The worsening navigable conditions are amplified by long term-processes in the river system and trends in the freight transport sector. This will lead to the reduction of load capacity of vessels, an increase of travel time and travel costs. Stakeholders in the IWT-sector (port authorities, waterway authorities, shippers and barge operators) have the urgency to find out where potential bottlenecks may arise in the future and to develop mitigation measures. In the current literature numerical models are applied to assess the impact of climate change on Inland Water Transport for specific relations or processes. Simulations with those models is executed for one climate scenario or one time horizon for a larger part of the IWT -network. Other researchers make use of analytical relations applied on one or two bottlenecks for multiple climate scenarios and time horizons. An integral assessment to setup an overview of potential bottlenecks for multiple climate scenarios and time horizons based on an integrated model is lacking. In this project an integrated assessment meta-model is built to examine navigation conditions as a result of climate change and the impact on IWT. The focus of the first part of the project is to assess the climate change impacts on IWT. In the second part the aim is to develop and assess a number of mitigation measures. In this paper, first, an analysis of potential bottlenecks is executed. As a case study, the integrated assessment meta-model is applied on the river branches Waal and IUssel for one climate scenario and time horizon. The results give insight into the locations where problems will occur for navigation conditions and mitigation measures are needed to improve the conditions in case of low river discharges. The method and model will be applied for the assessment of mitigation measures in the second phase of the research project. The outcomes of the two research phases shall be used to define policies by waterway manager Rijkswaterstaat for efficient IWT in the future over the river Rhine or to develop new logistic concepts by ports, shipping companies or barge operators.
Vessel traffic is a key element determining port safety and capacity. The growth of port calls and cargo can have implications in port operations. Decision makers need to take decisions to anticipate any future capacity drop or increase in nautical risks. In this research, a multi-criteria decision making methodology is developed to evaluate the trade-off between safety and capacity of vessel traffic in ports, as well as other assessment indicators. The methodology first identifies the most relevant risk and capacity assessment criteria and the input required. A simulation model is used to calculate the criteria for a variety of different scenarios. The outcome results for the criteria from the simulations are used into a decision-making method that includes unknown decision makers’ preferences. The use of this methodology provides the best scenario for port vessel traffic, when strategic and operational decisions should be taken, and it can be used as a framework for port assessment by decision makers for future changes in traffic management strategies or changes in the port infrastructure, such as port expansions.
...
Vessel traffic is a key element determining port safety and capacity. The growth of port calls and cargo can have implications in port operations. Decision makers need to take decisions to anticipate any future capacity drop or increase in nautical risks. In this research, a multi-criteria decision making methodology is developed to evaluate the trade-off between safety and capacity of vessel traffic in ports, as well as other assessment indicators. The methodology first identifies the most relevant risk and capacity assessment criteria and the input required. A simulation model is used to calculate the criteria for a variety of different scenarios. The outcome results for the criteria from the simulations are used into a decision-making method that includes unknown decision makers’ preferences. The use of this methodology provides the best scenario for port vessel traffic, when strategic and operational decisions should be taken, and it can be used as a framework for port assessment by decision makers for future changes in traffic management strategies or changes in the port infrastructure, such as port expansions.
Identifying ecosystem-based alternatives for the design of a seaports marine infrastructure
The case of tema port expansion in Ghana
Journal article
(2019)
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Wiebe P. de Boer, Jill H. Slinger, Arno K. wa Kangeri, Heleen S.I. Vreugdenhil, Poonam Taneja, Kwasi Appeaning Addo, Tiedo Vellinga
Long-term sustainable port development requires accounting for the intrinsic values of ecosystems. However, in practice, ecosystem considerations often only enter the planning and design process of ports when required by an Environmental Impact Assessment. At this late stage, most of the design is already fixed and opportunities to minimize and restore ecosystem impacts are limited. In this paper, we adopt a large-scale, ecosystem perspective on port development with the aim to identify ecosystem-based design alternatives earlier and throughout the planning and design of a port's marine infrastructure. We present a framework, termed the 'ecosystem-based port design hierarchy' (EPDH), to identify ecosystem-based alternatives at four hierarchical design levels: 1) alternatives to port developments, 2) port site selection, 3) port layout design, and 4) design of structures and materials. In applying the EPDH framework retrospectively to a case study of port expansion in Tema, Ghana, we establish that ecosystem considerations played only a limited role in identifying and evaluating alternatives at all four design levels in the case study, whereas more eco-friendly alternatives in terms of port layouts, structures, and materials are identified using the EPDH framework. This reveals that opportunities for ecosystem-friendly port designs may have been missed and demonstrates the need for and the potential added value of our framework. The framework can assist practitioners in earlier and wider identification of ecosystem-based alternatives for a port's marine infrastructure in future seaport developments and, hence, represents an important step towards more sustainable port designs.
...
Long-term sustainable port development requires accounting for the intrinsic values of ecosystems. However, in practice, ecosystem considerations often only enter the planning and design process of ports when required by an Environmental Impact Assessment. At this late stage, most of the design is already fixed and opportunities to minimize and restore ecosystem impacts are limited. In this paper, we adopt a large-scale, ecosystem perspective on port development with the aim to identify ecosystem-based design alternatives earlier and throughout the planning and design of a port's marine infrastructure. We present a framework, termed the 'ecosystem-based port design hierarchy' (EPDH), to identify ecosystem-based alternatives at four hierarchical design levels: 1) alternatives to port developments, 2) port site selection, 3) port layout design, and 4) design of structures and materials. In applying the EPDH framework retrospectively to a case study of port expansion in Tema, Ghana, we establish that ecosystem considerations played only a limited role in identifying and evaluating alternatives at all four design levels in the case study, whereas more eco-friendly alternatives in terms of port layouts, structures, and materials are identified using the EPDH framework. This reveals that opportunities for ecosystem-friendly port designs may have been missed and demonstrates the need for and the potential added value of our framework. The framework can assist practitioners in earlier and wider identification of ecosystem-based alternatives for a port's marine infrastructure in future seaport developments and, hence, represents an important step towards more sustainable port designs.
In the present turbulent environment highlighted by energy transition, disruptive technology, and climate change impacts, adaptability and robustness are essential in long-term planning of infrastructures. This also applies to inland ports, which play an important role in the Dutch transport system. Inland ports have three major functions, i.e., transfer of goods, storage of goods, and eventually, facilitating (industrial) production of goods. A well-functioning inland port can contribute to efficient supply chains by offering multi-modal capabilities and value-added services, and importantly, contribute to a modal shift from road to environmentally friendly inland shipping.
...
In the present turbulent environment highlighted by energy transition, disruptive technology, and climate change impacts, adaptability and robustness are essential in long-term planning of infrastructures. This also applies to inland ports, which play an important role in the Dutch transport system. Inland ports have three major functions, i.e., transfer of goods, storage of goods, and eventually, facilitating (industrial) production of goods. A well-functioning inland port can contribute to efficient supply chains by offering multi-modal capabilities and value-added services, and importantly, contribute to a modal shift from road to environmentally friendly inland shipping.
Journal article
(2019)
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Wiebe de Boer, Yongjing Mao, Gerben Hagenaars, Sierd de Vries, J Slinger, Tiedo Vellinga
In Africa, several new seaport developments are being considered. In sedimentary environments, such port developments can have adverse impacts on the evolution of adjacent coastlines. To learn from past port engineering practice, we created a unique database containing the coastline evolution and characteristics of 130 existing African seaports. Whereas the systematic mapping of coastal impacts was previously hampered by data availability, innovative automated satellite image processing techniques have enabled us to intercompare ports at an unprecedented continental scale. We found large geographical differences with respect to the beach evolution. The total detected changes in the beach area between 1984 and 2018 totaled 44 km2, of which ca. 23 km2 is accretion and ca. 21 km2 is erosion. The top 10% “hotspot” ports account for more than 65% of these changes. These hotspots exhibit common characteristics, namely: they are located on open coastlines, have large alongshore sediment transport potential, and have large cross-shore breakwaters. Although these driving characteristics are well established in coastal engineering theory, our results indicate that the beaches adjacent to the existing seaports have been and remain seriously affected by these drivers. Our results can be used to inform beach maintenance strategies for existing seaports and to support planners and engineers to minimize long-term coastal impacts of port expansions and new port developments in Africa in the future.
...
...
In Africa, several new seaport developments are being considered. In sedimentary environments, such port developments can have adverse impacts on the evolution of adjacent coastlines. To learn from past port engineering practice, we created a unique database containing the coastline evolution and characteristics of 130 existing African seaports. Whereas the systematic mapping of coastal impacts was previously hampered by data availability, innovative automated satellite image processing techniques have enabled us to intercompare ports at an unprecedented continental scale. We found large geographical differences with respect to the beach evolution. The total detected changes in the beach area between 1984 and 2018 totaled 44 km2, of which ca. 23 km2 is accretion and ca. 21 km2 is erosion. The top 10% “hotspot” ports account for more than 65% of these changes. These hotspots exhibit common characteristics, namely: they are located on open coastlines, have large alongshore sediment transport potential, and have large cross-shore breakwaters. Although these driving characteristics are well established in coastal engineering theory, our results indicate that the beaches adjacent to the existing seaports have been and remain seriously affected by these drivers. Our results can be used to inform beach maintenance strategies for existing seaports and to support planners and engineers to minimize long-term coastal impacts of port expansions and new port developments in Africa in the future.
Since the introduction of the Automatic Identification System (AIS), AIS data has proven to be a valuable source of ship behavior analysis using data mining. It records ship position, speed and other behavior attributes at specific time intervals in all voyages at sea and in ports. However, the current studies in ship behavior analyze the behavior patterns either with a subjective choice of classification for behavior differences among the groups of ships or without any classification at all. In order to fill this gap, a new methodology for ship classification in ports based on behavior clustering is developed by analyzing AIS data from the port of Rotterdam. Besides a proper data preparation, the proposed methodology consists of two steps: step I, clustering ship behavior in a port area and identifying the characteristics of the clusters; step II, classifying ships to such behavior clusters based on the ship characteristics. The clustering results present both the behavior patterns and the behavior change patterns for ship path and speed over ground, which are the dominant behavior attributes for ships in ports. Some patterns of integral ship behavior can also be revealed by investigating the correlation between the two behavior attributes. Our research has shown that length and beam can be adopted as explanatory variable to classify ships to the corresponding behavior clusters. The classifiers are developed based on both unsupervised discretization (equal width binning) and supervised discretization (Chi2). The performances of classifiers are compared by three evaluation metrics, including Average Accuracy, F 1 score, and AUC. We found that the classification based on multi-criteria is more accurate than using a single criterion. The classifications based on Chi2 discretization outperform the ones with equal width discretization. The outcome leads to a systematic understanding of ship behavior in a port area and can be used to predict the ship behavior pattern based on their characteristics and simulate the ship behavior.
...
Since the introduction of the Automatic Identification System (AIS), AIS data has proven to be a valuable source of ship behavior analysis using data mining. It records ship position, speed and other behavior attributes at specific time intervals in all voyages at sea and in ports. However, the current studies in ship behavior analyze the behavior patterns either with a subjective choice of classification for behavior differences among the groups of ships or without any classification at all. In order to fill this gap, a new methodology for ship classification in ports based on behavior clustering is developed by analyzing AIS data from the port of Rotterdam. Besides a proper data preparation, the proposed methodology consists of two steps: step I, clustering ship behavior in a port area and identifying the characteristics of the clusters; step II, classifying ships to such behavior clusters based on the ship characteristics. The clustering results present both the behavior patterns and the behavior change patterns for ship path and speed over ground, which are the dominant behavior attributes for ships in ports. Some patterns of integral ship behavior can also be revealed by investigating the correlation between the two behavior attributes. Our research has shown that length and beam can be adopted as explanatory variable to classify ships to the corresponding behavior clusters. The classifiers are developed based on both unsupervised discretization (equal width binning) and supervised discretization (Chi2). The performances of classifiers are compared by three evaluation metrics, including Average Accuracy, F 1 score, and AUC. We found that the classification based on multi-criteria is more accurate than using a single criterion. The classifications based on Chi2 discretization outperform the ones with equal width discretization. The outcome leads to a systematic understanding of ship behavior in a port area and can be used to predict the ship behavior pattern based on their characteristics and simulate the ship behavior.
The importance of maritime transport keeps increasing with the trade globalization. With the growing demand for waterborne transport, vessel traffic flows are also expected to increase. This paper reviews maritime traffic models from the vessel behavior modeling perspective. The maritime traffic models include the models for vessel traffic both at sea and in confined water area. The aim of this paper is to analyze the underlying modeling paradigms and to assess the extent in which maritime traffic models can represent vessel behavior. Focusing on vessel behavior modeling, this paper provides a broad overview of the current literature on maritime traffic models of the last decades. The commercial models are not included due to the limit of information. To compare the capabilities of models in capturing the vessel behavior characteristics, the considered models are assessed from different aspects of vessel behavior representation, external impact modeling, and model applicability. The assessment shows that none of the existing models describe all dynamic kinetic information in detail for different vessels and consider the impacts from a full range of external factors, which is possibly due to the specific purpose when the models were developed. The models developed for specific vessels in specific situations ignore the irrespective behavioral details in other possible scenarios. Models without proper calibration and validation limit the applicability in other cases. It also indicates that few models can accurately simulate the different vessel behavior at a microscopic level. To investigate the possible potential and limitations, the models have been assessed and discussed to indicate the underlying modeling paradigms based on the modeling characteristics. Future developments can focus on the behavior of different vessels in different types of water areas and the corresponding impacts from external conditions (e.g. visibility, wind, current), vessel encounters and traffic rules. Through calibration and validation, future models should be able to fit the vessel behavior in real-life situations.
...
The importance of maritime transport keeps increasing with the trade globalization. With the growing demand for waterborne transport, vessel traffic flows are also expected to increase. This paper reviews maritime traffic models from the vessel behavior modeling perspective. The maritime traffic models include the models for vessel traffic both at sea and in confined water area. The aim of this paper is to analyze the underlying modeling paradigms and to assess the extent in which maritime traffic models can represent vessel behavior. Focusing on vessel behavior modeling, this paper provides a broad overview of the current literature on maritime traffic models of the last decades. The commercial models are not included due to the limit of information. To compare the capabilities of models in capturing the vessel behavior characteristics, the considered models are assessed from different aspects of vessel behavior representation, external impact modeling, and model applicability. The assessment shows that none of the existing models describe all dynamic kinetic information in detail for different vessels and consider the impacts from a full range of external factors, which is possibly due to the specific purpose when the models were developed. The models developed for specific vessels in specific situations ignore the irrespective behavioral details in other possible scenarios. Models without proper calibration and validation limit the applicability in other cases. It also indicates that few models can accurately simulate the different vessel behavior at a microscopic level. To investigate the possible potential and limitations, the models have been assessed and discussed to indicate the underlying modeling paradigms based on the modeling characteristics. Future developments can focus on the behavior of different vessels in different types of water areas and the corresponding impacts from external conditions (e.g. visibility, wind, current), vessel encounters and traffic rules. Through calibration and validation, future models should be able to fit the vessel behavior in real-life situations.
The maritime transportation growth leads to more intensively used waterways, especially in ports. Since the capacity of an intersection of waterways becomes more important, this research presents a new method to estimate this capacity. Based on an analogy between roads and waterways, the conflict technique is applied to an intersection of waterways. The vessel flows in each direction and their conflicting movements are input for the capacity calculation. The generic method can be applied to any intersection, considering the conflicts between the different streams in the intersection and the flows inferred from empirical data or from predictions. The applicability of the method is shown with two case studies, based on data from the Port of Rotterdam. After using the proposed method, we compare the real flows with the estimated ones to assess the capacity estimates. This method can improve traffic management strategies, traffic rules in waterway intersections or port designs.
...
The maritime transportation growth leads to more intensively used waterways, especially in ports. Since the capacity of an intersection of waterways becomes more important, this research presents a new method to estimate this capacity. Based on an analogy between roads and waterways, the conflict technique is applied to an intersection of waterways. The vessel flows in each direction and their conflicting movements are input for the capacity calculation. The generic method can be applied to any intersection, considering the conflicts between the different streams in the intersection and the flows inferred from empirical data or from predictions. The applicability of the method is shown with two case studies, based on data from the Port of Rotterdam. After using the proposed method, we compare the real flows with the estimated ones to assess the capacity estimates. This method can improve traffic management strategies, traffic rules in waterway intersections or port designs.
PORT METATRENDS
Impact of long term trends on business activities, spatial use and maritime infrastructure requirements in the Port of Rotterdam
This report presents a new three step approach for developing a shared vision on the future development of the port of Rotterdam. The first step concerns a novel three layered framework for analysing future developments. In this step relevant trends are identified and placed in a broader 'meta'-perspective of a three layered framework, whereby different layers relate to trends of varying inertia (or duration). This multi-layered approach results in a sharper view of the future, which narrows down the ‘plausible’ future space. The second step concerns a new approach in which trend based narratives are used to identify threats and opportunities for the port. The insights from the three layered trend analysis are translated into sixteen well-structured storylines or ‘narratives’, that take the strengths and weaknesses of the port of Rotterdam as a starting point and thus address threats and opportunities specific to the port. The narratives indicate which activities are likely to claim scarce space in the port over the next two decades. They help to form ideas about a future-proof clustering of activities, the required space in the port, as well as the required infrastructure and utilities. The third step concerns creating a spatial development strategy based on the insights provided by the narratives.
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This report presents a new three step approach for developing a shared vision on the future development of the port of Rotterdam. The first step concerns a novel three layered framework for analysing future developments. In this step relevant trends are identified and placed in a broader 'meta'-perspective of a three layered framework, whereby different layers relate to trends of varying inertia (or duration). This multi-layered approach results in a sharper view of the future, which narrows down the ‘plausible’ future space. The second step concerns a new approach in which trend based narratives are used to identify threats and opportunities for the port. The insights from the three layered trend analysis are translated into sixteen well-structured storylines or ‘narratives’, that take the strengths and weaknesses of the port of Rotterdam as a starting point and thus address threats and opportunities specific to the port. The narratives indicate which activities are likely to claim scarce space in the port over the next two decades. They help to form ideas about a future-proof clustering of activities, the required space in the port, as well as the required infrastructure and utilities. The third step concerns creating a spatial development strategy based on the insights provided by the narratives.
As a national strategic project, the Port of Kuala Tanjung draws significant attention at national and international level. Considering the semi-greenfield nature of the port, the diverse set of stakeholders, and the prevailing disruptive trends in the world port business, a robust first-phase port layout is required to kick-start the project and guarantee the overall sustainability of the port development. The objective of this research is to identify any uncertain or disruptive trends, both present and future, and access their implications towards the Port of Kuala Tanjung. Adaptive Port Planning (APP) frameworka will be used as the main methodology in this research. A combination of a literature review and interviews with experts are used to both identify the sources of the uncertain and disruptive trends mentioned above and also to propose adaptation strategies. Based on our qualitative study and interviews with experts, we have concluded that the consolidation of major shipping lines, multi-nationality partnerships, Indonesian regulation, and ship breaking regulations are currently the four most relevant contributions to uncertain and disruptive trends towards the port. To mitigate potential risk and seize opportunity provided by these trends, an industrial port complex concept might become the most promising alternative.
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As a national strategic project, the Port of Kuala Tanjung draws significant attention at national and international level. Considering the semi-greenfield nature of the port, the diverse set of stakeholders, and the prevailing disruptive trends in the world port business, a robust first-phase port layout is required to kick-start the project and guarantee the overall sustainability of the port development. The objective of this research is to identify any uncertain or disruptive trends, both present and future, and access their implications towards the Port of Kuala Tanjung. Adaptive Port Planning (APP) frameworka will be used as the main methodology in this research. A combination of a literature review and interviews with experts are used to both identify the sources of the uncertain and disruptive trends mentioned above and also to propose adaptation strategies. Based on our qualitative study and interviews with experts, we have concluded that the consolidation of major shipping lines, multi-nationality partnerships, Indonesian regulation, and ship breaking regulations are currently the four most relevant contributions to uncertain and disruptive trends towards the port. To mitigate potential risk and seize opportunity provided by these trends, an industrial port complex concept might become the most promising alternative.
Conference paper
(2018)
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Alex Kirichek, C. Chassagne, J.C. Winterwerp, Arie Noordijk, Ronald Rutgers, Chris Schot, Karoune Nipius, T. Vellinga
This paper gives an overview of the research that has been conducted to get a better understanding of the navigation in ports and waterways with fluid mud layers. In particular, the up-to-date review of reported full scale experiments that involve real vessels is provided. To study physical processes, the
full scale experiments are accompanied by scaled experiments and numerical modelling. This combination provides a valuable insight into ship behavior with respect to different navigation conditions and physical properties of fluid mud. Another aspect of this paper are the surveying methods that can localize the fluid mud layers and potentially provide information about the strength
of these layers. Some of these methods were tested on fluid mud produced by water injection dredging in the Port of Rotterdam. It was concluded that the new rheology-based method show a potential for understanding of strength development in fluid mud layers. Finally, some open research questions with respect to the applicability of the navigation through fluid mud are discussed. ...
full scale experiments are accompanied by scaled experiments and numerical modelling. This combination provides a valuable insight into ship behavior with respect to different navigation conditions and physical properties of fluid mud. Another aspect of this paper are the surveying methods that can localize the fluid mud layers and potentially provide information about the strength
of these layers. Some of these methods were tested on fluid mud produced by water injection dredging in the Port of Rotterdam. It was concluded that the new rheology-based method show a potential for understanding of strength development in fluid mud layers. Finally, some open research questions with respect to the applicability of the navigation through fluid mud are discussed. ...
This paper gives an overview of the research that has been conducted to get a better understanding of the navigation in ports and waterways with fluid mud layers. In particular, the up-to-date review of reported full scale experiments that involve real vessels is provided. To study physical processes, the
full scale experiments are accompanied by scaled experiments and numerical modelling. This combination provides a valuable insight into ship behavior with respect to different navigation conditions and physical properties of fluid mud. Another aspect of this paper are the surveying methods that can localize the fluid mud layers and potentially provide information about the strength
of these layers. Some of these methods were tested on fluid mud produced by water injection dredging in the Port of Rotterdam. It was concluded that the new rheology-based method show a potential for understanding of strength development in fluid mud layers. Finally, some open research questions with respect to the applicability of the navigation through fluid mud are discussed.
full scale experiments are accompanied by scaled experiments and numerical modelling. This combination provides a valuable insight into ship behavior with respect to different navigation conditions and physical properties of fluid mud. Another aspect of this paper are the surveying methods that can localize the fluid mud layers and potentially provide information about the strength
of these layers. Some of these methods were tested on fluid mud produced by water injection dredging in the Port of Rotterdam. It was concluded that the new rheology-based method show a potential for understanding of strength development in fluid mud layers. Finally, some open research questions with respect to the applicability of the navigation through fluid mud are discussed.
Ports play an increasingly important role in the freight transportation chain due to containerization. High vessel flows and higher densities increase the relevance of the non-terminal related processes. Several simulation models have been developed in the recent decades with different goals, but their abilities to represent realistic vessel traffic in ports differ. In this paper, we identify the main navigational processes and operations related to the port nautical infrastructure, and review and assess the current port simulation models. This survey represents an exhaustive review of the state-of-the-art of simulation models for port assessment purposes focussing on safety and capacity. The model assessment focuses on the identification of the relevant criteria to represent vessel navigation, based on which processes are covered by each model and how they have been considered in each model. The assessment covers the nautical infrastructure representation and the navigational behaviour. The outcome of this review will be used for the development of a simulation based port assessment methodology. Future port simulation models should include the suitable criteria for a more realistic traffic representation that allows a proper safety and capacity port analysis and assessment.
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Ports play an increasingly important role in the freight transportation chain due to containerization. High vessel flows and higher densities increase the relevance of the non-terminal related processes. Several simulation models have been developed in the recent decades with different goals, but their abilities to represent realistic vessel traffic in ports differ. In this paper, we identify the main navigational processes and operations related to the port nautical infrastructure, and review and assess the current port simulation models. This survey represents an exhaustive review of the state-of-the-art of simulation models for port assessment purposes focussing on safety and capacity. The model assessment focuses on the identification of the relevant criteria to represent vessel navigation, based on which processes are covered by each model and how they have been considered in each model. The assessment covers the nautical infrastructure representation and the navigational behaviour. The outcome of this review will be used for the development of a simulation based port assessment methodology. Future port simulation models should include the suitable criteria for a more realistic traffic representation that allows a proper safety and capacity port analysis and assessment.
In the present turbulent environment, adaptability and robustness belong under the overarching definition of sustainability. Sustainable infrastructures should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and adaptable under uncertainty. This paper examines the current guidelines for port development and concludes that a comprehensive planning approach that systematically accounts for uncertainty during planning, to result in a sustainable plan, is missing. It proposes an approach for port planning based on planned adaptation. Case studies illustrating how planned adaptation can effectively help to deal with short- and long term vulnerabilities, and seize opportunities to come up with sustainable plans that are able to achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives for a long-term uncertain future, are presented.
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In the present turbulent environment, adaptability and robustness belong under the overarching definition of sustainability. Sustainable infrastructures should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and adaptable under uncertainty. This paper examines the current guidelines for port development and concludes that a comprehensive planning approach that systematically accounts for uncertainty during planning, to result in a sustainable plan, is missing. It proposes an approach for port planning based on planned adaptation. Case studies illustrating how planned adaptation can effectively help to deal with short- and long term vulnerabilities, and seize opportunities to come up with sustainable plans that are able to achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives for a long-term uncertain future, are presented.
Safe navigation in ports and waterways should be insured by the port authorities and a good safety record is of utmost importance for the competitive position of the harbours. An important factor for safe navigation is the space that is available under a ship’s keel, known as the under keel clearance (UKC).
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Safe navigation in ports and waterways should be insured by the port authorities and a good safety record is of utmost importance for the competitive position of the harbours. An important factor for safe navigation is the space that is available under a ship’s keel, known as the under keel clearance (UKC).
Conference paper
(2018)
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Wiebe de Boer, Jill Slinger, arno kangeri, Poonam Taneja, Heleen Vreugdenhil, Tiedo Vellinga
Connecting to the trend of harmonization of port developments with nature, this paper presents a framework for the explicit inclusion of ecosystem based alternatives in the early planning and design stages of seaport developments. The framework aims to shift the focus from offsetting environmental impacts afterwards to avoidance and reduction of environmental impacts as integral part of seaport planning and design. Our framework, labeled the ecosystem based port design hierarchy, helps to identify ecosystem based alternatives at 4 hierarchical levels of port planning and design: (1) consideration of alternatives to port developments to meet a perceived transport capacity problem (i.e. “no-port” alternatives), (2) port site selection, (3) port layout selection and (4) selection of port structures and materials. Application of the framework to the planning and design process of Tema port expansion in Ghana in hindsight shows that ecosystem based considerations barely played a role in alternative generation and evaluation. Therefore, opportunities for environmental impact avoidance and reduction may have been missed in the decision making process. It is recognized that decision making is a multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder process which is not based on environmental considerations only, but requires tradeoffs with functional, operational and socio-economic requirements. Nevertheless, we believe that explicit identification and inclusion of ecosystem based alternatives as part of this decision making process, as supported by our framework, is a requirement to arrive at port developments that are (better) harmonized with nature.
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Connecting to the trend of harmonization of port developments with nature, this paper presents a framework for the explicit inclusion of ecosystem based alternatives in the early planning and design stages of seaport developments. The framework aims to shift the focus from offsetting environmental impacts afterwards to avoidance and reduction of environmental impacts as integral part of seaport planning and design. Our framework, labeled the ecosystem based port design hierarchy, helps to identify ecosystem based alternatives at 4 hierarchical levels of port planning and design: (1) consideration of alternatives to port developments to meet a perceived transport capacity problem (i.e. “no-port” alternatives), (2) port site selection, (3) port layout selection and (4) selection of port structures and materials. Application of the framework to the planning and design process of Tema port expansion in Ghana in hindsight shows that ecosystem based considerations barely played a role in alternative generation and evaluation. Therefore, opportunities for environmental impact avoidance and reduction may have been missed in the decision making process. It is recognized that decision making is a multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder process which is not based on environmental considerations only, but requires tradeoffs with functional, operational and socio-economic requirements. Nevertheless, we believe that explicit identification and inclusion of ecosystem based alternatives as part of this decision making process, as supported by our framework, is a requirement to arrive at port developments that are (better) harmonized with nature.