Global coastal exposure patterns by coastal type from 1950 to 2050
Björn Nyberg (7Analytics, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Albina Gilmullina (University of Bergen)
William Helland-Hansen (University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Jaap Nienhuis (Universiteit Utrecht)
J.E.A. Storms (TU Delft - Applied Geology)
More Info
expand_more
Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.
Abstract
Addressing sea-level rise and coastal flooding requires adaptation strategies tailored to specific coastal environments. However, a lack of detailed geomorphological data on global coasts impedes effective strategy development. This research maps seven coastal environments worldwide, and for each environment analyzes the effect of coastal changes on coastal populations by including sea-level change, extreme sea-level events with varying return periods and population growth from 1950 to 2050. It identifies the historical exposure of low-lying deltaic and estuarine flood areas (>48% of total population) and reveals that flood exposure will significantly increase for barrier islands and strandplains by 2050 (with over a 40% rise in exposure), particularly along African coastlines. Population growth emerges as the primary factor behind the increased exposure. While sea-level rise is projected to contribute between 26% and 65% of the increased inundated area by 2050 compared to a 10-year extreme sea-level event, varying by coastal environment. The findings highlight the critical need for mitigation measures that account for the distinct responses of different coastal types to sea-level rise, posing various risks over varying timescales.
help_outline