Transforming urban heating systems

Abstract

This thesis investigates the social-environmental-technological transformations associated with the transition towards low-carbon and renewable urban heating in Amsterdam. Using urban heating infrastructures as the unit of analysis, the research addresses three themes: water use, committed emissions, and energy justice. The first theme examines water use through a multi-scale energy and water model, showing that water withdrawal for Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) systems could reach levels comparable to current national water use for cooling in electricity production. The study highlights the importance of multi-scale assessment of water use, including virtual water embedded in fuels, to prevent future water stress. The second theme focuses on committed emissions, defined as cumulative carbon emissions over a planning period. By integrating a bottom-up heat demand model with a mixed-integer nonlinear optimisation framework, scenarios are evaluated to minimise emissions between 2030 and 2050. Results indicate that ambitious building insulation and electricity decarbonisation measures increase uptake of low-temperature heating systems, reducing emissions and limiting reliance on high-temperature fossil-based systems. Risks of carbon lock-ins due to insufficient heat density in low-temperature networks are also identified. The third theme addresses energy justice through ethnographic research on collective heating initiatives, revealing that these initiatives both contest and shape the transition, enhancing decision-making liberties, ownership, and responsibilities within communities. Collectively, the studies demonstrate how multi-scale, multidisciplinary approaches combining technical modelling with social science methods provide novel insights into urban sustainability transitions, informing the design and governance of future low-carbon heating systems.