The role of value change in the emergence of Local Renewable Energy Communities

An Agent Based Modelling approach to illustrate the decision-making behavior of citizens regarding their electricity supply

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Abstract

The accessibility and affordability of small scale renewable energy sources cause a shift towards an decentralized energy system with distributed electricity generation. Together with the increased attention to responsible innovation, the polycentric development of multiple governing authorities gives room for social innovation. This empowers citizens to become prosumers via Local Renewable Energy Communities (LREOs). Despite the trend towards more polycentricity, the mismatch between the existing regulations and rules - with focus on system efficiency, reliability and affordability – and the growing attention to new sustainability related concerns of social equality, environmental well-being and energy autarky is seen as the cause for the emergence of LREOs. This manuscript explores how these new sustainability related concerns, evoked by climate events, influences the value systems of citizens and subsequently lead to the emergence of LREOs. By using agent based modelling approach, this research incorporates multiple scales of analysis, diverse agent configuration and focus on the emergence of structures at the societal level from individual actions.

The constructed agent based model uses an illustrative approach to showcase how the impact of disruptive climate events changes the value systems of citizens. Over the course of the simulation the citizens take part in the three core mechanisms of the model. First citizens slowly become responsible citizen by recognizing the sustainability related concerns evoked due to climatic disrupting events. Second, due to social learning and the recognition of the sustainability related concerns, citizens change their value prioritization. Third, citizens decide, based on their responsibility, value prioritization (motives) and leadership capacities, to adjust their energy provision by choosing between i) Fossil fuel market (market entity that supplies fossil fuel generated electricity), ii) Sustainable market (market entity that supplies sustainable generated electricity), iii) individual pv-owner (citizens buy solar pv panels for individual use), and iv) joining/initiating an LREO. In this thesis I will show that in each of these core mechanisms, values and value change play a dominant role. The experiments show that during the process of recognizing the sustainability related concerns, citizens from the value orientation Growth and Personal-Focus mainly struggle to acknowledge their own contribution to the problem of climate change, while citizens from the Social-Focus and Self-Protection-Focus population scenarios tend to stagnate because of disbelieve in the impact of individual actions. For the second mechanism, change in value prioritization, the analysis have shown that within the Mixed population scenario, the social pressure of friends hinder citizens to ascribe more priority to sustainable related values. Interestingly, within populations with a homogeneous value prioritization the combination of social learning and the completion of the responsibility-cycle led to the increased prioritization of the sustainability related values of universalism and benevolence. These so-called divergent patterns of change in value prioritization is more often observed among social networks with citizens who were social competent and receptive to new opinions (Growth and Personal-Focusvalue orientations).For the third mechanism, the emergence of LREOs, the experiments demonstrate that only within the population scenarios with the Growth and Mixed value orientations the emergence of LREOs was visible. This was due to the fact that only within these two scenarios, populations contained a large group of citizens i) who recognized the concerns of sustainability, ii) who were community-oriented, iii) who were willing to act, iv) whom of which a small group was capable to lead, and v) who jointly agreed on the organisational form and technology in-use. The experiments have shown a big diversity in the agency, goals and preferences between different population-scenarios. This research made a methodological contribution by introducing the new concept of perception thermometers to study the impact of value-weighted experiences, events and information on the value prioritization system of citizens. Next to the perception thermometers, the scientific contribution of this research study showcases how to integrate new values (e.g. energy justice) within the existing Value Circumplex of Schwartz by considering it as a change in value specification. Moreover, this research used a holistic approach of analysing the emergence of LREOs as it combines external factors (e.g. consistent energy policies) with social factors (e.g. disagreements during board meetings due to the different motives of individuals) and individual characteristics (e.g. responsibility, motives, leadership capacities). Applying this multiple perspective of studying the emergence of LREOs in practise, creates a better understanding why LREOs emerge and how to stimulate/facilitate their founding process. These insights allow a more in-depth understanding of the emergence LREOs and can equip relevant researchers and practitioners with fruitful knowledge.