Cooling for Comfort, Warming the World

Abstract

Despite The Hague's historically mild climate, it is experiencing rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves, resulting in a growing demand for space cooling. However, there is a significant gap in research and sustainable policies to address this demand in an environmentally and socially responsible manner. While studies have examined the environmental impacts of residential heating, cooling remains understudied, and The Hague lacks sustainable cooling policies. This study projects cooling demand, energy consumption, material usage, and greenhouse gas emissions in The Hague for the status quo (2020), 2030, and three 2050 scenarios. It uses geospatial analysis of residential and office buildings and uses a thermodynamic model to calculate cooling demand in a bottom-up approach, before evaluating the aggregate environmental impacts. Despite offices accounting for only 13% of floor space, they contribute to 34% of present-day cooling demand and 65% of associated greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, space cooling accounts for 25% of annual office electricity consumption and 5.5% of residential electricity use. Moreover, 77% of cooling demand remains unmet, particularly affecting economically disadvantaged neighborhoods. The results suggest that adopting stringent climate change adaptation measures may reduce cooling demand and environmental impacts, even in the face of a warming climate. However, a business-as-usual scenario predicts a doubling of cooling demand and a significant rise in associated environmental impacts, challenging the Netherlands' goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Sensitivity analyses highlight key areas for The Hague to focus on, including thermal comfort standards, addressing the urban heat island effect, and improving the energy efficiency of cooling technologies. The study further offers recommendations to mitigate environmental impacts, such as minimum energy label standards for building renovations and promoting circular economy practices for cooling equipment. In conclusion, this study underscores the need to address space cooling in The Hague and the Netherlands. Without action, environmental impacts will worsen the effects of climate change. To tackle this challenge, the study recommends prioritizing energy-efficient cooling technologies, utilizing synergies between sustainable heating and cooling, and incorporating environmental justice into policy measures. This is the path towards securing a sustainable and cooler future for The Hague.