EPA: Multi-Modelling for Complex Challenges With the acknowledgement of international grand challenges, the demand for better and ever more complex models is likely to increase a manifold. Where single models may no longer be able to grasp the complexities of a system, multi-modelling (Nikolic, Warnier, et al., 2019; Vangheluwe, 2000) enables the combination of the strengths of different models whilst enabling the development of multi-perspective insights. In this research, I developed a multi-model to provide policymakers in The Netherlands with insights on how to steer the Urban Energy Transition at both national and municipal level. This is done by combining a System Dynamics (Forrester, 1961) model for evaluating market behaviour at the national scale, and an Agent-Based Model (Epstein & Axtell, 1996) for investigating investment behaviour at the neighbourhood level. The results from experiments with this model show that multi-perspective insights can be very helpful in designing policies and strategies for dealing with Sustainable Urban Development. It is found that challenges concerning the conceptualisation phase of the Model Development Cycle, could turn out to be opportunities for model development. As formalism selection and possible overlapping scales between models requires extra effort and attention, this attention results in model concepts that will be better evaluated, resulting in better concepts to be developed altogether. The main challenge that is currently unresolved, is that of the computational performance of multi-models. Although worsened by the choice for Agent-Based Modelling as one of the formalisms used in the multi-model, the computational requirements for the simulation seriously hamper the opportunities for experimentation and analysis. Although solutions can be found to minimise the computational demand or the effects of it, improvements are required in either computational demand or processing supply, for multi-models to become a suitable method for common modelling and simulation practice. CME: Energy Transition in the Built Environment With the EU goals (European Commission, 2018b) to reduce CO2 emissions to zero tons in 2050, The Netherlands has set up a climate agreement (Klimaatakkoord, 2019) in which municipalities get a leading role in reducing the carbon footprint of the Built Environment. To realise these goals, an energy transition is inevitable and strategies need to be developed for remodelling neighbourhoods into sustainable living environments. Before the end of 2021, municipalities have to come up with a plan in which they decide what neighbourhoods will be transformed and when. A problem in this is that currently, municipalities do not have the resources and tools to do so (RTL, 2019; Schuttenhelm, 2020; Straver, 2019). Currently, existing models, such as the Vesta MAIS model (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, 2019c) offered by the national government, are missing two crucial aspects which should help municipalities to set up their strategies: time dynamics and population dynamics. The techno-economic approach does present the ’best’ solution but is missing how to get there. Next to this, uncertainty around national policies makes that it is very difficult to decide on a robust policy. To deal with the aforementioned challenges, I use a multi-modelling approach (Nikolic, Warnier, et al., 2019; Vangheluwe, 2000), using System Dynamics (Forrester, 1961) and Agent-Based modelling (Epstein & Axtell, 1996) in which on the one hand, the time dynamics and population dynamics aspects are incorporated, and on the other hand multi-perspective insights on effects of national policies on national goals as well as insights on the heterogeneous effects at the municipal level are provided. An important finding is the crucial role of a CO2 tax on the realisation of national goals. Without this tax, homeowners and housing corporations will not be motivated sufficiently to significantly invest in insulation measures, making that fewer alternative heating systems will be implemented. Next to this, it is found that major differences can be distinguished between rural and urban areas. Heating grids will be a viable starting point for urban municipalities to start their transition due to the availability of residual heat. For rural municipalities, this will be more difficult due to a dependency on low-temperature systems. There, starting with the neighbourhoods that have the most potential to insulate is advised.

The construction, operation and maintenance of buildings consume more than 40% of primary energy in most countries. Out of this 40%, a large portion is related to the operational phase involving heat losses through a buildings envelope. To reduce this loss, several materials have been developed to reduce the thermal transmittance through a façade, even though they carry a heavy environmental burden. Furthermore, the unregulated and rapid expansion of urban environments led to a considerable amount of problems. Among them, the urban heat island effect demands special attention as it has been responsible for an increase of the energy consumption to higher mortality rates. In part, the use of materials with high thermal admittance is responsible for these effects. Vertical green systems have shown to be a potential solution to improve, among others, the thermal demands of buildings and to mitigate the urban heat island effect. However, due to the uncertainty associated with their design process and operation, the implementation of vegetation as a construction material in an urban setting is often overlooked. Therefore, an in-depth study of their performance under different configurations and climate conditions is needed. The optimization study was based on the parametrization of a green façade and a living wall system which aimed to identify their response under variable initial conditions. A analysis of the essential parameters in the vegetation model was performed. Consequently, the leaf area index showed the highest effect, followed by the substrate thickness, leaf angle distribution, leaf surface albedo and finally by the moisture content of the substrate layer. Furthermore, a state-of-the-art computational work flow was developed through the integration of ENVI_met, Rhino/Grasshopper and modeFRONTIER, in combination with Python 3 scripting, to evaluate the performance of vertical greenery systems. The evaluation focused on the heat transmission through the façade of a single building, in comparison to a reference model. The work flow allowed the study of the impact of each parameter in the behavior of the system and led to the development of several design guidelines. The optimized result was tested in an urban setting to evaluate its potential as a mitigation strategy for the urban heat island effect. The largest reduction in thermal transmission took place in equatorial, fully humid climate due to the low vapor pressure deficit; while the lowest in a temperate climate during winter conditions, suggesting the lower efficiency of the systems under cold weather. Furthermore, living wall systems have a significantly higher performance in comparison to green façades. On the other hand, the latent heat release associated with the evapotranspiration process has a strong correlation with the leaf area index, given the simultaneous action of the aerodynamic and bulk surface resistance. The optimized configuration of the vegetation was then derived based partly on this correlation. Moreover, the leaf angle distribution displayed a high correlation with the solar zenith angle and the leaf surface albedo with the intensity of the solar radiation and the ambient temperature. Additionally, among the substrate properties, the substrate thickness indicated a large potential in reducing heat transmission. The effects of vertical green systems in an urban setting suggested an improvement of the environmental conditions. While the leaf area index is directly related to the decrease of wind speed and evaporative cooling, the leaf surface albedo influenced the amount of reflected shortwave radiation in a façade. Furthermore, the highest cooling potential was observed in desert climates as a result of the high vapor pressure deficit with temperature drops of up to 0.25 C. The outcome of this research indicates that an optimized vertical greenery system is a suitable replacement for artificial insulating materials as a passive alternative to reduce energy demands in buildings. Indicating a decrease in heat transmission from 8% to 50% of the original heat flux. Furthermore, the findings of the urban study suggests that a decrease in the ambient temperature and an overall reduction of the negative impacts related to the urban heat island effect is possible.

During the Paris climate conference in December 2015, 195 different countries recognized the dangers of climate change. One of the key points on which the participants of this conference agreed on was that cities should built resilience against the effects of climate change. The changing climate has amongst others major consequences for water systems. In a country such as the Netherlands – which is extremely vulnerable to the consequences of flooding – water should be treated and used differently according to J.M. de Vries, former Secretary of State for Transport, Public Works and Water Management, in order to keep the Netherlands safe and livable. The climate will change considerably in the coming decades. Cities and their buildings will be affected. My graduation focuses on how water can be treated differently within the built environment related to climate change resilience. As project location, I have chosen 'Het Marineterrein' in Amsterdam. This area belongs to the Royal Navy until 2018. In this year, the Navy will leave and the area will be open for redevelopment from then on. My research on how water and its natural cycles can be integrated into a hotel building leads to a design of a bio hotel for 'Het Marineterrein', in Amsterdam. Within the hotel building and its surroundings water is purified, recycled and harvested. The hotel is an inspirational place for hotel guests, visitors and locals, where people can learn about water treatment related to climate change and where they can share their ideas and thoughts about the subject.

Current issues such as climate change or scarcity of resources, among others, make general business market and in this case, Lidl supermarket Netherlands continue searching and improving its commercial operations and services around circular economy principles (CE). However, CE carries several social limitations that this thesis is planned to solve through exploring social circular economy solutions (SCE) and synergistic potential of urban metabolism. Moreover, the influence of United Nations (through Sustainable Development Goals) and its objective to focus on the improvement of social conditions is important for the sustainable progress and social living conditions of degraded areas such as Spangen, the selected case study.

The Dutch government has issued a legislation that follows the Paris Agreement of 2016. This legislation means that all office buildings in 2023 must have minimum energy label C while the ambition in 2030 is to have energy label A and in 2050 zero energy buildings. It is estimated that currently more than half of the office buildings in the Netherlands must take measures to meet this upcoming obligation before 2023. This research helps the building owner with the decision making in which measures they should invest. Office building owners want to know whether investments can be made from a broader sustainability perspective within the value areas People, Planet and Profit that are also financially justified. Therefore a model is designed which will help the building owners in the decision making process. The objective of the model is to enable mathematical operations on different elements. By using the model, office building owners consider their own organizational interests and objectives within the dimensions People, Planet & Profit. This is done in a so-called weighting process of the different dimensions and their criteria. This will lead that informed decisions can be made on the sustainable development of the building which fits the best between the value areas People, Planet and Profit given the objectives of the organization or client.

Our excessive need for new building materials is causing our natural material stock to be depleted at an alarming rate. What happens if our most common building materials can no longer be acquired? This thesis shows the potential in reusing buildings and the components they comprise of by setting an example. An existing office building is transformed and expanded, where almost all building components the building currently is comprised of are reused, provided that they add to the building’s aesthetic, functional and environmental value. Additionally, surrounding buildings that are up for demolition serve as material resources from which additionally needed building components are harvested. The process of urban mining shall serve as a tool to make this possible.

In the first part of this Architectural master thesis the Circular Economy is studied and results are Applied to the Amstel III district in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. In this study the Circular Strategies of Europe, the Netherlands and Amsterdam are distilled into 5 main drivers. The main driver this thesis focusses on is “Design for Disassembly” by creating new modular components with reversible connections. A new design system that allows change in program, volume and façade elements is designed. The second part of the thesis is the adaptation of this new design system into an architectural composition that fits the current needs of the neighborhood and allows for adaptation to a future scenario in which the urban composition of the area has changed. This architectural design shows the potential for the re-use of materials by transforming from an office building to a mixed use, mid-rise building that houses residential units and a modern interpretation of a library including a restaurant, an exhibition space and flexible workspaces. The adaptation of this new system leads to a significant decrease in building waste, CO2 emissions and Energy consumption.

As material stocks are depleting and the building sector plays a big role in using these materials a circular economy can bring a solution to this depleting problem. Within the thoughts of applying the circular economy to the built environment, upscaling would not be possible without the community to engage to the topic. This project of a circular community lab lets people experience the reused materials of the area of Amstel III in a way they can learn from it about circular usage of materials and be inspired by it. The project seeks to explore the different experiences of reused materials into a new architectural language. Where the applied reused materials are coming from the area itself, from the buildings which will in the nearby future be demolished to provide space for a more densified city district and new inhabitants. This project of the circular community lab will therefore also provide a space for the neighbours to go to, create their own identity and express their hobbies or connect with each other with circular initiatives.

Despite The Hague's historically mild climate, it is experiencing rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves, resulting in a growing demand for space cooling. However, there is a significant gap in research and sustainable policies to address this demand in an environmentally and socially responsible manner. While studies have examined the environmental impacts of residential heating, cooling remains understudied, and The Hague lacks sustainable cooling policies. This study projects cooling demand, energy consumption, material usage, and greenhouse gas emissions in The Hague for the status quo (2020), 2030, and three 2050 scenarios. It uses geospatial analysis of residential and office buildings and uses a thermodynamic model to calculate cooling demand in a bottom-up approach, before evaluating the aggregate environmental impacts. Despite offices accounting for only 13% of floor space, they contribute to 34% of present-day cooling demand and 65% of associated greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, space cooling accounts for 25% of annual office electricity consumption and 5.5% of residential electricity use. Moreover, 77% of cooling demand remains unmet, particularly affecting economically disadvantaged neighborhoods. The results suggest that adopting stringent climate change adaptation measures may reduce cooling demand and environmental impacts, even in the face of a warming climate. However, a business-as-usual scenario predicts a doubling of cooling demand and a significant rise in associated environmental impacts, challenging the Netherlands' goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Sensitivity analyses highlight key areas for The Hague to focus on, including thermal comfort standards, addressing the urban heat island effect, and improving the energy efficiency of cooling technologies. The study further offers recommendations to mitigate environmental impacts, such as minimum energy label standards for building renovations and promoting circular economy practices for cooling equipment. In conclusion, this study underscores the need to address space cooling in The Hague and the Netherlands. Without action, environmental impacts will worsen the effects of climate change. To tackle this challenge, the study recommends prioritizing energy-efficient cooling technologies, utilizing synergies between sustainable heating and cooling, and incorporating environmental justice into policy measures. This is the path towards securing a sustainable and cooler future for The Hague.

Dit boek is geschreven naar aanleiding van de ministeriële publicatie ‘Rijksbreed programma Circulaire Economie ’ uit september 2016, waarin de ambitieuze doelstelling wordt uitgesproken dat Nederland zich voor 2050 moet ontwikkelen naar een volledig circulaire economie.@en

Dit boek is geschreven naar aanleiding van de ministeriële publicatie ‘Rijksbreed programma Circulaire Economie ’ uit september 2016, waarin de ambitieuze doelstelling wordt uitgesproken dat Nederland zich voor 2050 moet ontwikkelen naar een volledig circulaire economie.@en

The problem of linear resource flow is addressed, in this thesis, parallel to the problem of human behaviour with respect to resource use. There is sufficient research being done with the aim of reducing the environmental impact of urban water systems, but not enough to reduce resistance towards such ideas. This resistance is a result of growing comfort and convenience in the developed world which most societies are motivated towards. The objective of this thesis is to define technical and behavioural strategies for water circularity in urban residential neighbourhoods. It addresses both parts of the problem statement, that is, the system of linear resource use and the role of users in the system. Results of research are incorporated into a digital tool that takes context-related inputs and provides options for circular water and pro-environmental behaviour strategies to incorporate in the design of a residential neighbourhood.