Probabilistic downtime estimation for sequential marine operations

Journal article (2019)

Authors

Willem E.L. Bruijn Student, Royal Boskalis Westminster
Jolien Rip Student, Royal Boskalis Westminster
Antoon J.H. Hendriks Royal Boskalis Westminster
P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder Safety and Security Science - TPM
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG
Research Group
Safety and Security Science (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2019 Willem E.L. Bruijn, Jolien Rip, Antoon J.H. Hendriks, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2019.02.014
Simulation Probability Time series Workability Offshore Sequences Markov theory Downtime Synthetic Chains Linked Marine project operations
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Published Date

2019

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Values Technology and Innovation

Research Group

Safety and Security Science

Abstract

A marine project consists of series of operations, with each operation subject to a predefined operational limit and duration. If actual weather conditions exceed the operational limit, the operation cannot be executed and hence downtime occurs. An accurate assessment of uncertainties and the expected downtime during a marine project is important in the tender and execution phase. This paper proposes a new probabilistic model for downtime estimation. It utilizes linked Markov chains that use actual metocean conditions to produce binary workability sequences for each operation. Synthetic time-series can be generated based on the statistics of the past observations and more project simulations are realizable, reducing the simulation uncertainty. The capabilities and limitations of the proposed approach are illustrated in a case study for a hypothetical project in the Tasman Sea.