Creeping Towards the Red Light
An Exploratory Study to Detect the Tippping Points of a Creeping Crisis
M.A. Treurniet (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
H.G. van der Voort – Mentor (TU Delft - Organisation & Governance)
Nazli Yonca Aydin – Mentor (TU Delft - System Engineering)
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Abstract
A creeping crisis adds a new phase to the hot and cold phases of a ‘regular’ crisis: the creeping phase. Detection of the tipping point at the end of this creeping phase is important for a timely response from the Dutch safety regions. Such a detection approach cannot be found in literature. This research tries to answer the question ‘What detection approach could help the Dutch safety regions in detecting the tipping point of a creeping crisis when the creeping phase becomes the hot phase?’ It is found that the creeping crisis is surrounded by uncertainty as this uncertainty can be found around the nature of the threat, the build-up of the threat and the tipping point itself. The research tries to find an approach that is able to deal with this uncertainty. It is found that an approach that makes use of thresholds might be suitable for the detection of a tipping point. However, further research is needed to make this method applicable in practice.