How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather
Timo Kelder (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Climate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS))
Dorothy Heinrich (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, University of Reading)
Lisette Klok (Climate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS))
Vikki Thompson (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
Henrique M.D. Goulart (Deltares, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Ed Hawkins (University of Reading)
Louise J. Slater (University of Oxford)
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, ETH Zürich)
Ellen van Bueren (TU Delft - Management in the Built Environment)
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Abstract
We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.
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