Modelling the evolution of the European high-speed rail infrastructure network
Filippo Borgogno (Student TU Delft, LINKS Foundation)
Renzo Massobrio (Universiteit Antwerpen)
Jorik Grolle (Haskoning)
Oded Cats (TU Delft - Transport and Planning)
More Info
expand_more
Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.
Abstract
High-speed rail (HSR) is often considered a promising and sustainable alternative for long-distance travel in the European context, aligned with Europe’s ambitious mobility and climate goals for 2050. However, a cohesive European HSR network is yet to be realised. Critically, the planning of a European HSR network requires considering how the network is to gradually evolve from its current fragmented state. We introduce an Evolutionary Network Growth model with Infrastructure and Network Effects considerations for European Rail (ENGINEER). This novel iterative network growth model selects the HSR infrastructure with the highest economic potential, continuously updating network configurations and demand patterns, subject to budget feasibility constraints. ENGINEER integrates cost estimates based on a microscopic representation and benefits estimated based on a macroscopic travel demand representation and is applied across 28 European countries. Our findings highlight the importance of path dependency and the benefits of an integrated decision-making in infrastructure planning. Model results demonstrate that ENGINEER can effectively identify promising HSR investments, yielding a cohesive and well-integrated European HSR network which leads to an increase in rail mode share per trip from 13% in 2023 to 27% by 2065.
help_outline