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1
Regulating ride-sourcing markets
Can minimum wage regulation protect drivers without disrupting the market?
Previous research has shown that residential segregation often aligns with urban fragmentation in contexts where explicit segregation policies were historically implemented. However, it remains unclear whether this alignment also emerges in contemporary urban contexts where segregation is driven by market mechanisms and residential preferences. Here we analyze 520 cities across eight Western European countries using high-resolution demographic data and a Monte Carlo approach to test whether residential segregation of non-EU migrants aligns with urban fragmentation by railways, motorways, and waterways. We find that the relationship between residential segregation and urban fragmentation is highly heterogeneous across Europe. Rather than a uniform trend, our results reveal regional divergence: while the Netherlands and Germany exhibit a significant alignment, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy show less alignment than expected by chance. These findings suggest that urban barriers do not generally function as social frontiers in European contexts, with country-specific urban development potentially influencing the observed regional differences.
Efficient charging planning and scheduling are crucial for electric buses (e-buses) due to their limited range and extended charging times. This paper focuses on the problem of planning the charging infrastructure for a public transport network in a rural area. Due to longer routes and poor road conditions in rural areas, especially in developing countries, conventional diesel intercity bus services account for significant carbon emissions from bus transport. However, there is a gap in planning the electrification of rural bus systems, especially in terms of charging infrastructure planning. Accordingly, the aim of this research is to identify optimal charging schedules using an integrated modelling approach. In particular, an optimisation model is developed to simultaneously determine the optimum location and capacity of charging facilities, along with optimal charging schedules for e-buses. This model aims to minimise the costs associated with charging infrastructure and the electricity consumed by the buses, considering time of use (TOU) electricity tariffs. A real-world case study of Kalyana Karnataka Road Transport Corporation (KKRTC) in Karnataka, India is presented to test the efficacy of the developed model. For the considered scenario in the Kalburgi division (the largest division in KKRTC), with 11 depots and 887 bus routes, the model provides 52 optimal locations with a total of 82 opportunity chargers. According to the model, the feasible electrification level is 67.08% in the case of rural battery electric bus (BEB) systems for this division. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is presented to understand the effect of battery size and charger power on the results. The proposed approach offers operators a valuable tool for making optimal decisions regarding e-bus networks.
Access graph
A novel graph representation of public transport networks for accessibility analysis
Accessibility, defined as travel impedance between spatially dispersed opportunities for activity, is one of the main determinants of public transport use. In-depth understanding of its properties is crucial for optimal public transport systems planning and design. Although the concept has been around for decades and there is a large body of literature on accessibility operationalisation and measurement, a standardised approach is lacking. To this end, we introduce a dedicated graph representation of public transport networks, termed the Access Graph, or A-space, based on the generalised travel times between nodes. We introduce an edge between two nodes in the access graph if the travel time between them is below a certain threshold time budget. In this representation, node degree directly measures the number of nodes reachable within a predetermined time, reproducing the cumulative opportunities measure of access at each specific value of the time budget. We study the threshold-dependent evolution of the degree distribution of the access graph and define a set of accessibility indicators. The indicators are observed at network-specific and passenger-based characteristic times. We apply the methodology to a dataset of 51 metro networks worldwide. For the Washington DC metro, we validate the approach by comparing supply to demand at the origin–destination level. The new representation addresses accessibility at the network structure level, offering a network science-grounded and flexible conceptual framework for accessibility studies.
Following the footprints of visitors
Spatiotemporal public transportation profiles using smart card data
Visitors’ induced seasonal demand spikes make supply dimensioning a challenging task. Smart card data have been widely used for exploring segmented passenger travel behavior; however, their potential in the tourism context remains underexplored. In this study, we portray distinct temporal and spatial visitor profiles in the Stockholm region by means of smart card data analytics. Empirical understanding of visitors’ travel patterns can inform public transportation planning in relation to tourist destinations and contribute to the strategic assessment and refinement of policies such as fare structures. In our analysis, visitors are defined using a combination of criteria, including: i) one-time users with a travel span of less than a week (activity criterion), and ii) users utilizing dedicated visitor fare products (fare product criterion). We apply k-means clustering and identify four activity clusters, namely Multi-travel short-stay visitors, Long-stay and frequent travellers, Day trippers, and Evening visitors, as well as three spatial visitor clusters denominated as City center visitors, Outside the city center visitors, and Mixed visitors. The clustering reveals that Day trippers dominate the activity segmentation, accounting for 38.5% of visitors, while the spatial segmentation results in three more evenly distributed clusters. Notably, 37.3% of visitors primarily utilize the public transportation system outside the city center, highlighting the need for policy attention beyond central areas – for example, accessibility improvements for less accessible visitor destinations. Last, our framework is fully reproducible, demonstrating the potential of smart card data in exploring visitors’ travel behavior.
High-speed rail (HSR) is often considered a promising and sustainable alternative for long-distance travel in the European context, aligned with Europe’s ambitious mobility and climate goals for 2050. However, a cohesive European HSR network is yet to be realised. Critically, the planning of a European HSR network requires considering how the network is to gradually evolve from its current fragmented state. We introduce an Evolutionary Network Growth model with Infrastructure and Network Effects considerations for European Rail (ENGINEER). This novel iterative network growth model selects the HSR infrastructure with the highest economic potential, continuously updating network configurations and demand patterns, subject to budget feasibility constraints. ENGINEER integrates cost estimates based on a microscopic representation and benefits estimated based on a macroscopic travel demand representation and is applied across 28 European countries. Our findings highlight the importance of path dependency and the benefits of an integrated decision-making in infrastructure planning. Model results demonstrate that ENGINEER can effectively identify promising HSR investments, yielding a cohesive and well-integrated European HSR network which leads to an increase in rail mode share per trip from 13% in 2023 to 27% by 2065.
The rise of autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) presents new challenges and opportunities for an efficient and flexible charging infrastructure. This study proposes a reinforcement learning (RL) based framework for optimizing the control and operation of mobile autonomous charging pods (MAPs) for maintaining the operation of AEVs through dynamic charging. We formulate a time and energy aware Markov Decision Process (MDP) to maximize the energy delivered, and the number of AEVs serviced, while also minimizing energy consumed and increasing efficiency. We integrate this framework with SUMO to enable realistic MAP-AEV interactions. A Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm was used to train this MDP and identify the optimal control strategies for initiating, terminating, and balancing the network. The results show that the PPO agent can service around 175 AEVs, with an efficiency of 91.5%, representing a 25% improvement over baseline greedy heuristics. Moreover, the battery capacities of AEVs can also be reduced by up to 26%, without compromising the performance. The simulation results show the potential of the proposed method in providing a flexible, and scalable charging for future transport.
Recent advances in battery technology and the global shift toward sustainable transport have accelerated the adoption of electrified public transit systems. However, the implementation of such systems is often constrained by the need for large battery capacities and the high costs associated with stationary charging infrastructure. This study investigates the potential of Mobile Autonomous Charging Pods (MAPs) which are autonomous mobile charging vehicles as an innovative and cost-effective strategy to support the electrification of high-frequency urban bus lines. Using microscopic simulation for inner-city trunk lines in Stockholm, three charging configurations are evaluated: (i) depot-only charging, (ii) depot charging combined with end-station charging, and (iii) depot charging supported by MAPs. Results show that the MAP-based approach enables a reduction in total battery capacity by up to 67% compared to the depot-only strategy and yields total cost savings of over 7 million USD in total cost of ownership across an 11-year horizon. In addition to reducing capital and grid connection costs, MAPs offer greater operational flexibility and resilience by decentralizing energy delivery and enabling dynamic in-motion or stationary charging. The findings highlight MAPs as a scalable and economically viable solution that complements traditional depot infrastructure, offering a path toward more adaptable and efficient electric public transport networks.
T-STAR
A context-aware transformer framework for short-term probabilistic demand forecasting in dock-based shared micro-mobility
Reliable short-term demand forecasting is essential for managing shared micro-mobility services and ensuring responsive, user-centered operations. This study introduces T-STAR (Two-stage Spatial and Temporal Adaptive contextual Representation), a novel transformer-based probabilistic framework designed to forecast station-level bike-sharing demand at a 15-minute resolution. T-STAR addresses key challenges in high-resolution forecasting by disentangling consistent demand patterns from short-term fluctuations through a hierarchical two-stage structure. The first stage captures coarse-grained hourly demand patterns, while the second stage improves prediction accuracy by incorporating high-frequency, localized inputs, including recent fluctuations and real-time demand variations in connected metro services, to account for temporal shifts in short-term demand. Time series transformer models are employed in both stages to generate probabilistic predictions. Extensive experiments using Washington D.C.’s Capital Bikeshare data demonstrate that T-STAR outperforms existing methods in both deterministic and probabilistic accuracy. The model exhibits strong spatial and temporal robustness across stations and time periods. A zero-shot forecasting experiment further highlights T-STAR’s ability to transfer to previously unseen service areas without retraining. These results underscore the framework’s potential to deliver granular, reliable, and uncertainty-aware short-term demand forecasts, which enable seamless integration to support multimodal trip planning for travelers and enhance real-time operations in shared micro-mobility services.
Tradeable Mobility Credits (TMC) are a novel demand management policy. Travel can be priced based on externalities and travellers are allocated TMC, which are consumed when travelling, with the price depending on trip characteristics. Travellers can buy/sell TMC in exchange for money. In this study, we analyse (1) how travel behaviour would be affected by a TMC-scheme, (2) TMC trading behaviour and (3) their interaction. We carry out an online stated preference survey, and apply a latent class choice model (LCCM) to analyse travel behaviour, whereas credit trading is analysed by means of a multiple linear regression. A key finding throughout the research is that TMC tend to be perceived non-linearly, with a logarithmic transformation often outperforming linear specifications. This means each additional credit carries less value. The LCCM reveals three out of four groups (88 % of respondents) consider their current balance when making travel choices. Two groups (∼50 %) are predominantly unimodal, travelling almost exclusively by bicycle or public transport. Others base their decision primarily on travel time and cost. In trading, the exchange rate and balance have a substantial influence, offering evidence for loss aversion. The number of travel instances remaining, and the experience of having performed a trade in the past also affect trading behaviour, whereas socio-demographic characteristics are found to have a limited impact. Our result show a TMC policy can achieve substantial behavioural adaptations, reaching the desired outcomes. The limited awareness of such policies, concerns about equitable TMC allocation and additional hassle associated with trading remain challenges to be addressed.
Year-on-year analysis of multi-modal digital travel diaries
Temporal, spatial and modal traveler profiles
Understanding multi-modal urban mobility patterns is essential for effective planning and policy-making. Traditional data sources, such as infrequent surveys or smart card records, often lack the temporal, spatial, and modal comprehensiveness required to fully capture the complexity of multi-modal travel behavior. Emerging mobility data sources are instrumental in capturing these patterns and in enabling additional insights. This study leverages a digitally collected trajectory-level dataset (i.e., TravelSense) obtained from a smartphone application operated by the public transport authority of Helsinki, Finland. Unlike conventional public transport data, TravelSense provides insights into modal choices alongside temporal and spatial travel characteristics. In order to analyze mobility patterns and explore the capabilities of this novel dateset, a Latent Profile Analysis is employed to classify travelers based on these attributes over a week-long period, with profiles compared across three consecutive years (2022, 2023, and 2024). Findings reveal that while spatial travel patterns remain relatively stable, temporal and modal patterns exhibit greater variability. A distinct shift is observed between 2022 and subsequent years, likely reflecting post-pandemic behavioral changes. Key traveler groups identified include exclusive active mode users (13 % annually) and non-private car users, whose share declined from 38 % in 2022 to approximately 20 % in 2023 and 2024. Study findings offer valuable input for shaping evidence-based mobility policies, particularly those aiming to support sustainable travel behavior and adapt to evolving urban mobility needs through enhanced multi-modality. TravelSense enables detailed analysis of temporal, spatial, and modal travel patterns, underscoring the value of novel data for multi-modal transport research.
‘Mind the Gap’
Evaluation Tool for the Implementation of Personalization in Passenger Information Systems
We propose a topological formulation of accessibility based on the notion of Access Graph, in which two nodes are connected if they are reachable within a given travel time. We trace the emergence and evolution of its subgraphs with imposed levels of connectedness, specifically maximal clique and k-cores. We propose two complementary sets of accessibility indicators, cumulative and threshold, based on integral measures of subgraph growth and times at emergence of k-cores, respectively. For a meaningful comparison of networks across different dimensions, we contrast the realised accessibility with that of an idealised network on the same set of nodes. The proposed measures offer a view of accessibility that extends beyond the commonly used node-averaged indicators. Empirical analysis of 42 metro networks worldwide demonstrates universal patterns of accessibility behaviour. We illustrate the practical application of this approach on a case study where we examine the accessibility impacts yielded by alternative infrastructure and service developments. Our results amount to the reconceptualisation of accessibility within the complex network framework.
Metro networks face operational challenges due to increasing ridership and system growth, particularly in managing delay propagation. Epidemiology models have recently been an interesting method in transportation research for studying delays. This study, therefore, aims to investigate if the Susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model is suitable to help model delay propagation in a metro network through its ability to reproduce the vulnerability of metro stations for specific instances. Using data from the Washington Metro Network, two groups of delay propagation instances were selected and used for model training and testing using a differential evolution algorithm. The results indicate that the vulnerability values as calculated from the reallife data do not follow the expected trend. Still, our model can capture this variation with good vulnerability estimation accuracy for both groups. Also, the predicted vulnerability values for the first group are more accurate than for the second group. However, limitations such as underestimation and overestimation of station vulnerabilities, and sensitivity to training data were observed. These challenges stemmed from the dynamics between specific parameters and the lack of additional factors.
We investigate the correspondence between network-based public transport network (PTN) supply indicators and passenger demand at the node level, by systematically assessing correlations between node centrality measures and passenger boarding counts across different graph representations of PTNs. At the stop-level, undirected L- and P-space representations with three different edge weightings: unweighted, service-frequency-weighted, and in-vehicle-time-weighted are analysed. In each case, we calculate degree, closeness, betweenness and eigenvector centralities and examine the relation shapes. At the route level, we examine degree and eigenvector centrality for unweighted and weighted C-space representations. We introduce a modified C-space representation with self-loops, with service frequencies as self-loop weights, and propose eigenvector centrality as a route-level supply indicator. Stop- and route-level properties are integrated using the B-space representation. This methodology was applied to a case study for a bus PTN in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Results show strong correspondence between passenger demand and degree and eigenvector centrality scores in the frequency-weighted P-space (correlation ≈0.7−0.8). Notably, the relationship between eigenvector centrality and passenger counts in the new C-space representation with self-loops exhibits logarithmic behaviour. Furthermore, the results suggest a minimum eigenvector centrality threshold (≈10−3) for a route to start facilitating passenger use. The route-level results from the B-space analysis show exponential convergence of passenger counts to route eigenvector centrality. Results of the stop-level analysis are in line with previous research and deepen the understanding of centrality measures as supply indicators. Most significantly, the route-level analysis is novel, and the results open promising venues for further research.