Climate change induced carbonation and corrosion of EU building stock

Abstract

This paper presents the main findings of the JRC report “Impact of climate change on the corrosion of the European reinforced concrete building stock” [1]. It evaluates the climate change-induced carbonation in reinforced concrete buildings in the EU Member States up to year 2100 and the time for corrosion onset and the repair costs under moderate and extreme CO2 emissions scenarios. The results indicate that, without climate change, natural aging of buildings would not lead to corrosion by 2100, as the carbonation depth would remain smaller than the concrete cover depth. However, if more severe climate change scenarios are considered, corresponding to the case when the emissions targets are not met, specifically the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, the potential economic costs and welfare losses in some EU countries could be substantial. Climate change-induced carbonation is expected to affect the 20th-century building stock, but not the recently constructed buildings meeting modern European standards for concrete cover durability. Adaptation measures for the building stock are proposed.