M. Nogal Macho
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1
The status of the scientific consensus on resilience
Convergence, divergence and diversification
This paper critically examines the state of scientific consensus in the multidisciplinary field of resilience, a topic that has attracted increasing attention across different domains due to increasing societal and environmental challenges. The diversity of definitions, perspectives, and approaches within the field has resulted in a complex landscape, challenging the achievement of a comprehensive consensus. The main question addressed in this work is whether the scientific community is converging towards or diverging from a resilience consensus. The study also seeks to understand the specific circumstances under which convergence or divergence may be considered beneficial or counterproductive. The findings of this analysis bear significant implications for the future of research and education within the domain of resilience. The authors’ primary observation suggests that achieving a well-thought-out balance between convergence and divergence can facilitate progress towards a wider consensus on resilience, ultimately fostering robust interdisciplinary collaborations and enhancing the practical utility of the concept. Furthermore, we propose pragmatic steps for promoting a shared understanding and a common framework in resilience research and practice.
Climate change poses escalating risks to bridge infrastructure, with short-term hazards–such as flash floods, scour, snowfall, wildfires and windstorms–interacting with long-term stressors like corrosion and thermal effects to compromise safety and functionality. The paper synthesises interdisciplinary research on these challenges, and highlights actionable adaptation strategies to enhance resilience at both asset and network levels. Two critical yet often overlooked dimensions in resilience-based bridge management are emphasised: the unique challenges of adapting heritage bridges, and the integration of human-centered approaches. These dimensions, supported by emerging digital technologies such as digital twins, IoT-enabled monitoring and AI-driven predictive tools, contribute to both the resilience and social sustainability of bridge infrastructure. By integrating technical, cultural and social considerations, the paper provides a foundational perspective for rethinking current design, preservation and maintenance practices, and for advancing infrastructure that is not only resilient to physical stressors but also socially sustainable amid accelerating climate challenges.
Flood Emergency Mobility
Archetype-Based Modeling of Human Behavior
Evacuation remains a critical challenge for emergency management, particularly in densely populated urban environments where human behavior strongly influences evacuation outcomes. Although substantial progress has been made in hazard modeling, early warning systems, and evacuation logistics, many models still rely on simplified assumptions of homogeneous compliance. Empirical evidence from past disasters shows that awareness of evacuation orders does not necessarily lead to timely or complete evacuation. This paper presents an archetype-based modeling framework to represent heterogeneous human behavior during flood emergencies, capturing coordinated, passive, and chaotic action patterns within an agent-based evacuation model. The framework is applied to a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, considering three dike failure scenarios that generate flash flooding. By integrating behavioral archetypes with high-resolution geospatial data, flood dynamics, and urban infrastructure networks, the model can enable more realistic simulation of evacuation processes and emergent mobility patterns. The results highlight the significant influence of behavioral diversity and infrastructure exposure on evacuation efficiency, advancing human-centered approaches for crisis decision-making and urban governance.
Here, we analyse the concept of plasticity and its application in diverse research fields such as physics, neuroscience, and biology. Historically, plasticity broadly refers to a system's capacity to undergo lasting changes in response to external inputs. This concept has been separated from the concept of elasticity, where changes are considered temporary and reversible. Both concepts were originally developed within physics and engineering, where plastic change happens when a material crosses a yield point. We propose a ‘minimal model’ to unify the concepts of elasticity, resilience, and plasticity across disciplines by mathematically formalising the transition between elastic and plastic changes. The model defines plasticity as the system's ability to reconfigure its internal parameters when it crosses a yield point, changing how it responds to new inputs. The framework we propose provides a common conceptual tool to facilitate communication across disciplines ranging from engineering to history and art. It can be applied to explain crucial differences between generally applied but still vague concepts, such as resilience and adaptation in different disciplines. Therefore, the model provides a basis for interdisciplinary applications and further exploration of plasticity across disciplines.
Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are critical infrastructure systems essential for maintaining urban functionality. Ensuring their continued operation, particularly in the aftermath of disasters, remains a significant challenge. Despite the growing attention to resilience, existing assessment methodologies do not sufficiently incorporate the post-disaster recovery process. This paper introduces an optimization-based framework aimed at enhancing the seismic resilience of WDNs by determining optimal pipeline repair sequences. The proposed approach employs a Genetic Algorithm to prioritize pipeline repairs, maximizing the efficiency of the recovery process. Based on the optimized repair sequence, characteristic resilience curves are developed, providing a comprehensive assessment of network performance under various seismic intensities and resource constraints. The model's scalability and applicability are validated through case studies on networks of differing scales. Results from this integrated methodology yield critical insights into network recovery dynamics, serving as valuable guidance for asset managers, engineers, and policymakers in planning, resource allocation, and decision-making for seismic risk mitigation and efficient infrastructure recovery.
Advancing Built Cultural Heritage Conservation
Integration of Industry 5.0 Principles and Enabling Technologies
The emergence of Industry 5.0, following the widespread adoption of Industry 4.0, marks a pivotal shift in digitalization and industrial operations. This article explores the implications of Industry 5.0 principles and enabling technologies within the Architecture, Engineering, Construction, Management, Operation, and Conservation (AECMO&C) industry, with a particular focus on the conservation of built cultural heritage environments. The results obtained from a systematic literature review and an online survey are summarized and discussed. Results reveal that artificial intelligence and digital twins are the most frequently studied enabling technologies in this context, while sustainability emerges as the dominant principle in the discourse surrounding this novel paradigm. Conversely, the principles of resilience and human-centrism remain underexplored, highlighting the need for further research to achieve a holistic implementation of Industry 5.0 in conservation practices. Furthermore, although awareness of Industry 5.0’s potential is growing, its adoption in heritage conservation remains limited due to knowledge gaps, inadequate training, and resource constraints. This underscores the need for comprehensive strategies to integrate Industry 5.0 principles and technologies into the conservation of built cultural heritage. Insights presented are intended to guide conservation practitioners seeking best practices, inform policymakers promoting technological adoption, and inspire researchers to address existing gaps and drive further innovation.
Automated Adaptive Traffic Network
Adapting the M50 in Real-Time by Optimizing Speed Limits Using a Proposed Intelligent Agent
Traffic congestion has been one of the most important issues in urban areas, which results in pollution, fuel cost, loss of time (work hours), stress and anxiety. It is possible to increase the traffic network efficiency through solutions such as Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) by adapting the existing network to ongoing operational conditions, especially in bottle neck conditions. In this study to minimize travel time losses, speed limits are optimized to adapt the traffic network to its operational conditions in real-time. To do so, an intelligent agent is developed to estimate the traffic in part of the M50 motorway in Dublin and is given the capability to learn and change the operational scenarios of the motorway that allow it to perform online management of its speeds. Results, tested in SUMO, indicate that the intelligent agent can reduce the travel time at peak congestion by a maximum of 60% in average travel times for a period of 10 min, and it has an overall significant benefit to alleviate congestion in the M50 section of interest during peak morning and afternoon times.
Towards Industry 5.0
A stakeholder analysis to understand the human role in the adoption of a heritage bridge human-centric digital twin framework
The adoption of a novel industry paradigm is an untamed problem that requires strong social consensus and involves a high degree of technological uncertainty. To solve this problem a multi-actor engagement and agreement are needed. In this article, the methodology and the findings obtained after conducting a stakeholder analysis to understand how different actors could work together towards the adoption of Industry 5.0 principles and enabling technologies are presented. The analysis has been framed within a case study dealing with the conservation of historical bridges in the city of Oslo, Norway. The education institutions of the city were assumed as the problem owners. This research indicates that the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Climate and Environment, along with their subordinate agencies (Statens Vegvesen and Riksantikvaren, respectively) together with Oslo Kommune and its Cultural Heritage Office, possess the critical financial and regulatory resources necessary for adopting this paradigm. Their leadership and capacity to mobilise resources are pivotal in incentivising other stakeholders. Such resources should be driven towards a suitable business model, the adoption of human-centric digital twins as enabling technology, the establishment of interdisciplinary collaborations between the identified stakeholders, and the up-skilling/re-skilling of the industry workforce.
Recent advancements in intelligent transportation systems and data analytics within transportation systems present a significant opportunity to enhance operational efficiency. In this context, the pivotal role of intelligent agents in achieving real-time optimisation for traffic management is highlighted. Such agents can predict and decide autonomously and can be trained to understand the underlying complexities of the traffic in real-time. In this paper, an innovative framework to perform real-time traffic optimal management decisions is proposed. Its rationale uses a fusion of data observations and simulation to enable an autonomous agent capable of accurate adaptive traffic management. A Case Study of application is developed using the M50 motorway in Dublin, where the speed limits are applied as adaptive parameters for optimal traffic management. Results show that the intelligent agent can autonomously predict travel times and decide in real-time the optimal speed limits to impose on a motorway when signs of congestion are found. The agent can reduce the mean travel time of a time interval by up to 55 % and the mean waiting time by up to 69 % in a situation of congestion. The average travel times of the studied M50 junction have significantly improved, showing the potential of autonomous agents in enhancing real-time optimal traffic management.
Cost-Informed Risk-based Inspection (CIRBI) for Hydrogen Systems Components
A Novel Approach to Prevention Strategies
Understanding and enhancing the resilience of transport networks against climate-induced extreme events, such as wildfires, is critical to minimizing disruptions and their societal impacts. In this context, resilience is essential for effectively coping with these hazards, as road disruptions can hinder evacuation efforts, reduce accessibility, and lead to significant economic losses. Despite scientific progress, existing resilience assessment frameworks have limitations, including scenario-specific results and limited consideration of the underlying resilience concepts. To address these limitations, this paper introduces a resilience framework based on dynamic thresholds and characteristic curves to evaluate system recovery capacity. The framework incorporates a temporal dimension, allowing for the analysis of recovery time and recovery rate, which depend on the resources available for recovery activities. The characteristic curves illustrate system resilience by capturing key information on the preparedness, response, and recovery capacities inherent in each network. Consequently, the framework offers a more comprehensive view of system behavior during the recovery stage, as demonstrated through its application to a Portuguese case study. The insights gained can assist stakeholders in determining the feasibility of strengthening system resilience through enhanced response and recovery efforts, as well as in identifying when it is critical to reinforce resilience at earlier stages through adaptation measures.
This paper presents the main findings of the JRC report “Impact of climate change on the corrosion of the European reinforced concrete building stock” [1]. It evaluates the climate change-induced carbonation in reinforced concrete buildings in the EU Member States up to year 2100 and the time for corrosion onset and the repair costs under moderate and extreme CO2 emissions scenarios. The results indicate that, without climate change, natural aging of buildings would not lead to corrosion by 2100, as the carbonation depth would remain smaller than the concrete cover depth. However, if more severe climate change scenarios are considered, corresponding to the case when the emissions targets are not met, specifically the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, the potential economic costs and welfare losses in some EU countries could be substantial. Climate change-induced carbonation is expected to affect the 20th-century building stock, but not the recently constructed buildings meeting modern European standards for concrete cover durability. Adaptation measures for the building stock are proposed.
Corrosion is a deterioration phenomenon of buried long-distance pipelines involving complex dynamic processes. The complexity poses challenges to addressing the safety concerns caused by corrosion. In recent years, the concept of resilience has been introduced into the assessment of engineering systems. However, there is a limited effort in quantitatively assessing the resilience of a pipeline's response to corrosion. This work aims to develop a novel framework to quantify the resilience of pipelines against corrosion while considering the resilience evolution induced by future corrosion growth, dynamic in-line inspection (ILI) plans, and distinct repair strategies (re-coating, composite material reinforcements, and pipe replacement). Pipeline Service Resilience (PSR) is modeled as a function of absorption, adaptability, and restoration capabilities based on the time-dependent burst pressure metric. Dynamic Monte Carlo Simulation technique is employed to model the potential resilience evolution scenarios to predict the PSR. The proposed framework is demonstrated on an in-service pipeline. The case results show that the PSR value ranges from 0.8943 to 1 due to the uncertainty of the resilience evolution process. Noteworthy impacts on PSR include repair time, ILI intervals, anti-corrosion ability, decision-making time, corrosion depth growth rate, and corrosion length growth rate (in decreasing order of sensitivity). The proposed methodology can potentially emerge as a significant tool for evaluating pipeline resilience under corrosion.
Wildfire preparedness
Optimal adaptation measures for strengthening road transport resilience
Prioritizing simulation-based stress tests to assess the resilience of transport systems
A computation-free methodology
Scholarship of Teaching and Learning in Civil and Structural Engineering
A Systematic Literature Review
Human intervention has modified the natural environment, increasing susceptibility to wildfires. For instance, the severity of recent fires in Maui (2023) is linked to the proliferation of invasive grasses covering significant portions of the islands. In Portugal, extensive and highly flammable eucalyptus plantations have reduced the country's resilience to wildfires (Weston, 2023). In addition, Portugal has extensive areas of undermanaged forests and shrublands that facilitate the occurrence of frequent, huge, and uncontrolled wildfires (Fernandes et al. 2016). This evidence the importance of effective landscape management as a key strategy for reducing landscape flammability and fuel continuity. Preparedness and adaptation activities become imperative for promoting wildfire resilience in the medium and long term, potentially mitigating the consequences of the new wildfire regimen (Loepfe, Martinez-Vilalta, and Piñol 2012).
Therefore, one of the main challenges for wildland fire scientists and managers is to promote more resilient landscapes and consequently, there is an eminent need for tools to support decision-making in this domain. Various frameworks exist for modelling fuel connectivity and assessing the spatial influence on fire spread, e.g., (Loehman, Keane, and Holsinger 2020; Sá et al. 2022; Aparício et al. 2022). However, these models are intrinsically attached to propagation models that primarily aim to predict wildfire occurrence, specifically fire ignition points. This connection introduces high uncertainty, especially considering that a significant portion of forest fires, particularly in the European Union, result from arson. In Portugal, for instance, 98% of fires are attributed to arson. Existing models fail to capture this high level of uncertainty adequately. Moreover, current methods are increasingly specialized, focusing on specific scenarios. Nevertheless, their limited ability to extrapolate and apply to diverse situations or conditions raises concerns about the conclusiveness of decision-making based on the analysis of a restricted number of fire events (Arango et al, 2023).
To address these issues, this study proposes the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based methodology for fire analysis, serving as a more effective tool for landscape fuel management. This tool evaluates exposure by considering various fuels, encompassing both built and natural environments. Unlike other models, this tool does not require the definition of the wildfire conditions and the location of the fire ignition, thereby eliminating associated uncertainties. Instead, the tool focuses on the system's ability to cope with such events, incorporates different intensities of wildfires including EWE, and conducts analyses at the system level. It has previously demonstrated its effectiveness in assessing various adaptation measures, capturing the influence of different fuels (sources or barriers) in exposure assessment. This study shows the tool's efficacy in landscape management by applying different fuel treatment strategies to reduce exposure to wildfires. For this, the exposure level of a case study in the Leiria region of Portugal is compared to the conditions that led to the devastating fire in 2017 and future conditions. Future scenarios involve two cases: one without implementing fuel treatment strategies and another using treatment strategies. This approach provides stakeholders with pertinent information to support necessary changes in forest management and the development of fire-resilient landscapes. The results suggest that the tool can significantly contribute to achieving certain goals outlined in the European Green Deal.
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Human intervention has modified the natural environment, increasing susceptibility to wildfires. For instance, the severity of recent fires in Maui (2023) is linked to the proliferation of invasive grasses covering significant portions of the islands. In Portugal, extensive and highly flammable eucalyptus plantations have reduced the country's resilience to wildfires (Weston, 2023). In addition, Portugal has extensive areas of undermanaged forests and shrublands that facilitate the occurrence of frequent, huge, and uncontrolled wildfires (Fernandes et al. 2016). This evidence the importance of effective landscape management as a key strategy for reducing landscape flammability and fuel continuity. Preparedness and adaptation activities become imperative for promoting wildfire resilience in the medium and long term, potentially mitigating the consequences of the new wildfire regimen (Loepfe, Martinez-Vilalta, and Piñol 2012).
Therefore, one of the main challenges for wildland fire scientists and managers is to promote more resilient landscapes and consequently, there is an eminent need for tools to support decision-making in this domain. Various frameworks exist for modelling fuel connectivity and assessing the spatial influence on fire spread, e.g., (Loehman, Keane, and Holsinger 2020; Sá et al. 2022; Aparício et al. 2022). However, these models are intrinsically attached to propagation models that primarily aim to predict wildfire occurrence, specifically fire ignition points. This connection introduces high uncertainty, especially considering that a significant portion of forest fires, particularly in the European Union, result from arson. In Portugal, for instance, 98% of fires are attributed to arson. Existing models fail to capture this high level of uncertainty adequately. Moreover, current methods are increasingly specialized, focusing on specific scenarios. Nevertheless, their limited ability to extrapolate and apply to diverse situations or conditions raises concerns about the conclusiveness of decision-making based on the analysis of a restricted number of fire events (Arango et al, 2023).
To address these issues, this study proposes the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based methodology for fire analysis, serving as a more effective tool for landscape fuel management. This tool evaluates exposure by considering various fuels, encompassing both built and natural environments. Unlike other models, this tool does not require the definition of the wildfire conditions and the location of the fire ignition, thereby eliminating associated uncertainties. Instead, the tool focuses on the system's ability to cope with such events, incorporates different intensities of wildfires including EWE, and conducts analyses at the system level. It has previously demonstrated its effectiveness in assessing various adaptation measures, capturing the influence of different fuels (sources or barriers) in exposure assessment. This study shows the tool's efficacy in landscape management by applying different fuel treatment strategies to reduce exposure to wildfires. For this, the exposure level of a case study in the Leiria region of Portugal is compared to the conditions that led to the devastating fire in 2017 and future conditions. Future scenarios involve two cases: one without implementing fuel treatment strategies and another using treatment strategies. This approach provides stakeholders with pertinent information to support necessary changes in forest management and the development of fire-resilient landscapes. The results suggest that the tool can significantly contribute to achieving certain goals outlined in the European Green Deal.