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M. Yang

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165 records found

Journal article (2027) - Hao Sun, Jiaxin Li, Meng Qi, Fuyu Wang, Ming Yang
Chemical process systems are susceptible to disruptions that can affect production efficiency and even turn into accident with casualties. To reduce the impact of disruptions on chemical process systems, this study presents a data-driven methodology for evaluating and forecasting system resilience. Critical process parameters (CPPs) governing system performance are first identified, considering both safety constraints and production efficiency. Subsequently, potential disruptive events are systematically identified and generated. Then, dynamic simulations are performed to generate transient response data. Finally, a resilience assessment method considering the CPPs is proposed, and an attention Bi-LSTM model is developed to learn the temporal dependencies between disruptions characteristics and system resilience, thereby allowing the prediction of the system resilience. The results indicate that the proposed methodology can accurately predict the variation over time of system performance and resilience under disruptive scenarios, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0035 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0032. The error between the predicted value and the actual value of resilience does not exceed 0.005. The proposed methodology demonstrates robust capability in predicting resilience of chemical process systems under diverse disturbance scenarios. It provides a systematic approach for proactive resilience management in chemical process systems, with implications for enhancing operational safety and informing maintenance strategies. ...
Review (2026) - Jiali Tang, Chao Chen, Bo Wang, Changjun Li, Jie Li, Ming Yang, Ernesto Salzano
Rising concerns over carbon emissions from fossil fuels have fueled interest in renewable energies. Hydrogen, as a clean energy source, stands out for its free of pollution and high calorific value. However, challenges in safely storing and transporting hydrogen, such as embrittlement, fire and explosion risks, are critical. This study reviews hydrogen storage and transportation safety research through a bibliometric approach, analyzing 948 relevant publications obtained from the Web of Science Core Collection, SCOPUS, and Science Direct literature databases since 2007. Then, a bibliometric analysis is conducted to obtain the publication's distribution, organization, source, and cooperation networks. Besides, the research hotspots in different periods are identified, and the evolution trend of hot topics is analyzed. Moreover, this paper proposes the possible future research needs in this field. The main hot topics in the field of hydrogen storage and transportation safety research include microstructure, crack, susceptibility, and hydrogen embrittlement and they change over time. In the future, research topics such as hydrogen damage in materials, compatibility of hydrogen in natural gas pipelines, and risk assessment should obtain more attention. ...
Journal article (2026) - Ruixuan Ge, Chao Chen, Tao Zeng, Mengxia Li, Zihan Lu, Ming Yang, Nima Khakzad
The attack on Qatar's LNG facility, which incapacitated 17% of its production capacity for an extended period and triggered a precipitous escalation in European gas prices, highlights the critical importance of the LNG supply chain to global energy security. However, these complex systems are susceptible to severe disruptions that can trigger catastrophic operational degradation. While previous studies have predominantly relied on static risk assessment, quantifying dynamic recovery trajectories under extreme shocks remains imperative. This paper proposes a quantitative, time-varying resilience assessment framework for an integrated maritime LNG carrier system, explicitly addressing the interplay between technical reliability and external disruptions. The methodology integrates a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) with Markov chains to shift the analytical focus from static failure probabilities to dynamic resilience evolution. By tailoring the 4Rs resilience concept (robustness, redundancy, rapidity, and resourcefulness) to the unique operational constraints of LNG, the model accurately captures the rapid hazard escalation that generic shipping models overlook. The evaluation encompasses diverse disruptions, centering on Natech events, while concurrently accounting for human factors, geopolitical risks, and intentional attacks. A case study of the maritime shipping route between Ras Laffan (Qatar) and Yangkou (China) is conducted, demonstrating the model's efficacy in predicting dynamic recovery trajectories. Ultimately, by quantifying the specific impact of individual operational nodes, the proposed model translates sensitivity results into practical operational measures, providing a reliable predictive tool to enhance long-term maritime LNG resilience under complex disruption scenarios. ...
Journal article (2026) - Hao Sun, Paolo Gardoni, Fuyu Wang, Ming Yang, Meng Qi, Along Huang
In the post-disruption phase, the resilience of LNG terminal system largely depends on maintenance resources—the more maintenance resources there are, the stronger the system's restoration capability and resilience. However, as maintenance resources increase, so do the associated maintenance costs. To enhance system resilience while controlling costs, a well-formulated optimization methodology is crucial. A process parameter-driven resilience optimization method for LNG terminal system considering the resilience enhancement rate (RER), cost and the maximum acceptable restoration time (MART) is proposed. The system resilience and RER are assessed by system performance curve, which is determined by time-dependent process parameters obtained from process simulations. The maintenance resources are represented by the number of maintenance team, including human resources, necessary equipment and materials, etc. A cost function model considering inherent cost, the cost of maintenance resources secondment and operating costs is established to represent the cost factors involved in the entire maintenance activity. According to derived results of the resilience assessment and cost analysis, the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) is employed to solve the multi-objective optimization model developed in this study. The resilience enhancement optimization for the LNG terminal system is utilized to demonstrate the proposed methodology. ...
Journal article (2026) - Guojin Qin, Dan Jin, Ming Yang, Enrico Zio, Yihuan Wang
Global climate change is accelerating environmental shifts and intensifying extreme weather events, creating significant uncertainty for the reliability, safety, and continuity of underground pipeline systems. As climatic conditions evolve, traditional reliability-informed pipeline safety management strategies are limited to pre-failure prevention. This highlights the need for a lifecycle-based evolution of resilience in underground pipeline systems. To mitigate climate-related impacts, reliability assessments should therefore extend to encompass post-failure functionality and recovery. This work proposes a quantitative, lifecycle-based resilience assessment framework for underground pipelines subjected to climate change. The framework is fundamentally governed by climate-coupled probabilistic models that integrate a Kusuda-Achenbach heat-transfer model and an Arrhenius-based degradation mechanism to simulate the dynamic evolution of corrosion. Climate-driven vulnerability and recovery processes are incorporated to capture the evolution of system functionality. A case study involving climate change-induced extreme weather events (Flood) combined with typical failure mechanisms (Corrosion) illustrates the applicability and practical value of the proposed approach. The results show that the proposed approach can quantitatively characterize the degradation–recovery trajectory of pipeline systems under different climate scenarios, providing actionable insights for reliability-informed operation, maintenance prioritization, and resilience enhancement of critical infrastructure systems. This work contributes to the fields of reliability engineering and system safety by extending traditional failure-based assessments toward climate-adaptive, resilience-oriented decision support. ...
Journal article (2026) - Hao Sun, Jin Huang, Meng Qi, Ming Yang, Fuyu Wang
Deviations of process parameters from their normal ranges are the primary causes of accidents in chemical process systems. Traditional risk assessment methods largely rely on static probability analysis based on historical data, which struggles to capture the dynamic influence of real-time parameter variations on risk and lacks the capability to predict risk evolution trends. This paper proposes a dynamic risk prediction method for chemical process systems based on enhanced feature engineering and XGBoost. First, key process parameters (KPPs), including temperature, liquid level and flow rate are identified through process analysis. A comprehensive risk indicator is then constructed using Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory to achieve dynamic quantification of system risk. Second, a dynamic simulation model is established using Aspen Plus, simulating operations under normal, disturbed, and extreme conditions to generate time-series data of KPPs. On this basis, multi-scale sliding window techniques are employed to extract enhanced features, including temporal, statistical, trend, and disturbance features. Finally, an XGBoost-based risk prediction model is developed. A continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR) is employed to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results indicate that the proposed methodology achieves an RMSE of 0.159, MAE of 0.122 and an R2 of 0.7237, outperforming traditional methods by significant margins. The results validate the effectiveness of combining enhanced feature engineering with XGBoost for risk prediction in chemical processes. ...
Process safety and process security share the common goal of protecting people, assets, and the environment, yet they remain largely fragmented in regulation and practice. This separation obscures the coupled nature of accidental and intentional risks in the chemical process industry and creates blind spots in how safety–security interactions are managed. To address this challenge, this study develops the Resilience-oriented Process Safety and Process Security (RoPSS) framework, which integrates both domains through four resilience capabilities (Anticipation, Absorption, Adaptation, and Ascension) embedded within a six-step management cycle. The framework introduces Ascension as an evolutionary capability that consolidates restoration, learning, continuous improvement, and prevention, extending resilience beyond recovery toward longer-term system strengthening. A structured catalogue of 50 performance indicators, organized by disruption type, resilience capability, and indicator category, provides measurable means to assess both operational and governance resilience. These indicators were defined and refined through focused expert elicitation, including an importance-availability assessment used as a formative step for indicator prioritization. An illustrative example in a chlor-alkali plant shows how RoPSS supports integrated disruption mapping, shared objective setting, and resilience-enhancing strategies. Overall, the framework offers an expert-informed conceptual basis for managing coupled safety–security risks and provides a foundation for future empirical evaluation, industrial application, and resilience benchmarking. ...
Journal article (2025) - Hao Sun, Meng Qi, Ming Yang, Fuyu Wang, Heping Wang
Chemical Process Systems (CPSs) exhibit complex characteristics and inherent dangers that can lead to serious accidents when disrupted. Accurate quantification and assessment of system resilience are crucial for effectively responding to potential undesired events. To address this, we propose a multiparametric resilience assessment methodology for CPSs that considers system dynamics and Independent Protection Layers (IPLs). This method integrates multiple CPS parameters using the Best Worst Method (BWM) to establish a comprehensive performance indicator. A dynamic simulation model incorporating IPLs is developed to monitor real-time changes in system parameters under disruptive influences. Additionally, a resilience metric is introduced, utilizing time-varying parameters to quantify system resilience under various disruptions. A case study involving a two-column pressure-swing distillation process with top recycling, designed to separate a minimum-boiling azeotrope of tetrahydrofuran and water, demonstrates the applicability of this method to complex CPSs. The results indicate that, compared to traditional resilience assessment methods based on reliability, the proposed approach provides time-dependent process parameters, reducing the uncertainty of reliability data. Furthermore, by considering IPLs, this method offers valuable decision support for the design and optimization of these protective layers. ...

Practitioner Insights for a Resilience-Oriented Framework

Journal article (2025) - M.S. Bin Ab Rahim, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers, M. Yang, Parthiban Siwayanan
Integrating process safety and process security risk management is increasingly essential for enhancing resilience in the chemical process industry. This study addresses how practitioners perceive the integration of these two domains, identifying key benefits, barriers, and strategies for effective implementation. A mixed-methods approach was applied, combining quantitative survey data from 47 industry professionals with qualitative insights from open-ended responses. The findings highlight significant advantages of integration, such as optimized resource use, reduced operational redundancies, and improved risk management. However, barriers such as knowledge gaps, resource constraints, and communication silos were identified. Respondents emphasized the importance of adopting a resilience-oriented approach involving proactive risk management, continuous improvement, and adaptability in both safety and security practices. Critical enablers for integration include strong leadership, alignment of societal values, cross-disciplinary training, and integrated risk assessment methodologies. Emerging technologies and regulatory alignment were also identified as critical factors in facilitating integration. The study contributes to the theoretical understanding of integrated risk management by supporting resilience engineering and systems theory. It offers actionable strategies for overcoming barriers and leveraging enablers, laying the groundwork for developing a resilience-oriented framework for process safety and process security risk management. ...
Journal article (2025) - Weikai Ma, Yanfu Wang, Peijie Xing, Ming Yang
The domino effect in chemical industrial parks represents a complex phenomenon where accidents such as leaks, fires, and explosions can occur either simultaneously or in sequence. The progression of domino accidents is highly uncertain, making it difficult to anticipate the spatial-temporal development of such accidents. This paper presents a model that aims to forecast the evolution of domino effects by considering the critical thermal dose and utilizing the Probit model to assess the escalation of incidents caused by thermal radiation and overpressure. To tackle the complexities associated with multiple installations, high order, and various accident types in modeling domino effect accidents, the model incorporates Monte Carlo simulation methods. The model validation and case studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach in simulating the progression of domino accidents initiated by a range of primary accidents. This approach enables the prediction of potential accident chains and the dynamic failure probability of hazardous installations, including the identification of the initial installation likely to fail. The insights gained from this research offer guidance for the prevention and mitigation of the domino effect in chemical accidents. ...

A new framework to manage major event risks in chemical plants

Journal article (2025) - Shuaiqi Yuan, Genserik Reniers, Ming Yang
Chemical process industries are threatened by accidental and intentional major events that may lead to catastrophic consequences due to hazardous materials' production, operation, and storage. Remarkably, the digitalization of industrial facilities brings emerging cyber-physical attack risks, which calls for a holistic and integrated safety and security risk assessment and management. Considering the dynamic aspects of risks, the continuous monitoring and assessment of risk-related variations plays a vital role in making timely adaptions to risk treatment strategies and, therefore, accommodating increasing risks. To this end, this study proposes a comprehensive framework for risk-based safety and security barrier management, handling challenges in assessing integrated safety and security risks and deriving timely and cost-efficient barrier improvement strategies in case undesired risks are increasing to unacceptable levels. The fundamental ideas and applicable procedures are elaborated before a case study is demonstrated to offer insights into its feasibility. The case study shows that implementing this framework holds advantages in managing safety and security risks in a unified way, considering the interplays between safety and security and making continuous risk-treatment adaptions to sustain the safety and security of digitalized chemical process systems. Furthermore, the principles and precautionary considerations pertinent to this new framework are discussed to foster its application in real-world settings. ...
Journal article (2025) - Y. Xu, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers, M. Yang
Decisions in complex systems need support from formal risk management. Traditional risk management, based on a "rational" idea of risk (the actual damage linked with probabilities), often diverges from public perceptions, leading to conflicts between expert-led evaluations and societal acceptance. Two research directions have emerged to bridge this gap: enhancing stakeholder participation in risk management, and incorporating emotional factors into risk assessment. Building on these efforts, we propose a systematic methodology integrating stakeholders' emotional considerations into formal risk management. Our approach combines a refined risk conceptualization with a structured stakeholder engagement process. An illustrative example involving an ammonia plant site-selection risk problem is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. The proposed approach offers a potential way to resolve conflicts and enhance public trust in risk management. ...
Journal article (2025) - Yunfei Huang, Guojin Qin, Ming Yang, Maria Nogal
Corrosion is a deterioration phenomenon of buried long-distance pipelines involving complex dynamic processes. The complexity poses challenges to addressing the safety concerns caused by corrosion. In recent years, the concept of resilience has been introduced into the assessment of engineering systems. However, there is a limited effort in quantitatively assessing the resilience of a pipeline's response to corrosion. This work aims to develop a novel framework to quantify the resilience of pipelines against corrosion while considering the resilience evolution induced by future corrosion growth, dynamic in-line inspection (ILI) plans, and distinct repair strategies (re-coating, composite material reinforcements, and pipe replacement). Pipeline Service Resilience (PSR) is modeled as a function of absorption, adaptability, and restoration capabilities based on the time-dependent burst pressure metric. Dynamic Monte Carlo Simulation technique is employed to model the potential resilience evolution scenarios to predict the PSR. The proposed framework is demonstrated on an in-service pipeline. The case results show that the PSR value ranges from 0.8943 to 1 due to the uncertainty of the resilience evolution process. Noteworthy impacts on PSR include repair time, ILI intervals, anti-corrosion ability, decision-making time, corrosion depth growth rate, and corrosion length growth rate (in decreasing order of sensitivity). The proposed methodology can potentially emerge as a significant tool for evaluating pipeline resilience under corrosion. ...
Journal article (2025) - Leonardo Giannini, Genserik Reniers, Ming Yang, Maria Nogal, Nicola Paltrinieri
The evolving energy landscape in Europe is showing concrete signals that hydrogen will play a central role in the energy transition scenario. In this light, a report of the European Hydrogen Backbone pinpoints no less than forty existing projects focused on the commissioning of several kilometers of hydrogen pipelines in the following years. Hence, ensuring a safe operability of these systems represents a topic worthy of investigation and marked by significant challenges, especially given the unique properties that make hydrogen a potentially hazardous substance. Established techniques may prove helpful in supporting the development of dedicated prevention and mitigation strategies for hydrogen systems. Among these, Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) could represent an effective tool to design inspection programs aimed at the detection of hydrogen-induced damages, especially for components working in pressurized environments, including pipeline materials. However, the lack of operational experience associated with emerging technologies may lead to the adoption of over-conservative safety measures, which could impact the economic attractiveness of these systems. Therefore, this study proposes an evolution of conventional RBI planning by implementing concepts of safety economics and optimization modelling, thus building a novel approach named “Cost-Informed Risk-Based Inspection” (CIRBI). The proposed methodology is therefore applied to a case study of inspection techniques potentially suitable for pipeline materials (i.e., API X-series pipeline steels), showcasing its potential as a self-standing approach for inspection planning while also demonstrating the insight that it may provide to ensure a safe operability of hydrogen pipelines. ...

A reliability-centric approach

Journal article (2025) - Federica Antonelli, Ming Yang, Valerio Cozzani
Pipelines are the most widely used system for transporting liquid and gaseous energy materials, but throughout their lifespan, they are exposed to various detrimental factors, such as corrosion and deviations in process variables. In recent years, the concept of resilience has gained significant attention as a means to analyze infrastructure behavior during failure states. This study introduces a novel metric for assessing pipeline resilience based on reliability. The proposed method involves an aging study of pipelines, considering the interaction of potential failures—such as corrosion, pressure variations, temperature fluctuations, and changes in fluid velocity—and subsequently analyzes ways to restore the system to its original conditions. The method offers an assessment approach for the three phases that constitute a resilience curve: absorption, adaptation, and restoration. This approach not only identifies the system's time to failure, but also through analysis of the resilience curve, facilitates the comparison of the effects of potential preventive, mitigative, and repair actions. A case study is presented to validate the method's efficacy. The results suggest that the proposed approach could be a valuable tool in the decision-making process within the asset integrity management (AIM) framework, aiming to optimize pipeline resilience by implementing the most effective safety solutions. ...
Journal article (2025) - Erica Arango, Maria Nogal, Ming Yang, Hélder S. Sousa, José C. Matos, Mark G. Stewart
Understanding and enhancing the resilience of transport networks against climate-induced extreme events, such as wildfires, is critical to minimizing disruptions and their societal impacts. In this context, resilience is essential for effectively coping with these hazards, as road disruptions can hinder evacuation efforts, reduce accessibility, and lead to significant economic losses. Despite scientific progress, existing resilience assessment frameworks have limitations, including scenario-specific results and limited consideration of the underlying resilience concepts. To address these limitations, this paper introduces a resilience framework based on dynamic thresholds and characteristic curves to evaluate system recovery capacity. The framework incorporates a temporal dimension, allowing for the analysis of recovery time and recovery rate, which depend on the resources available for recovery activities. The characteristic curves illustrate system resilience by capturing key information on the preparedness, response, and recovery capacities inherent in each network. Consequently, the framework offers a more comprehensive view of system behavior during the recovery stage, as demonstrated through its application to a Portuguese case study. The insights gained can assist stakeholders in determining the feasibility of strengthening system resilience through enhanced response and recovery efforts, as well as in identifying when it is critical to reinforce resilience at earlier stages through adaptation measures. ...
In recent years, the relationship between academia and the fossil fuel industry has become a focal point of intense debate. This concern arises from the fear that corporate funding might skew research activities. A significant development in this area is the adoption of policies by a Dutch university, and discussions in several others, prohibiting research funded by the fossil fuel industry. These policies aim to safeguard academic freedom and integrity. Despite this, there has been little discussion on the myriad challenges, implications, and possible unintended consequences, particularly in the realm of safety-and-security research. As such, this manuscript delves into the complex transition towards a fossil-fuel-free society, examining it through the lenses of safety science and sociotechnical systems. It emphasizes the vital importance of collective responsibility in ensuring systemic safety and security as we navigate towards achieving the sustainable development goals. This journey requires a delicate balance between the objectives of safety and sustainability, along with a deep understanding of the security implications of decreasing our dependence on the fossil fuel industry. The strategy of distancing academic research from fossil fuel industries, commonly seen as a positive step, also demands a nuanced consideration of its broader impacts, including the setting of precedents for addressing other existential and systemic risks. Instead, we argue for the establishment of robust governance structures rooted in restorative justice principles. Such frameworks can facilitate productive dialogue with underrepresented groups, motivate the fossil fuel industry towards sustainable practices, and safeguard the integrity of scholarly research. This approach not only addresses immediate concerns related to fossil fuels but also lays the groundwork for a more inclusive and equitable model of climate risk research, essential for tackling the multifaceted challenges of our era. ...
Book chapter (2025) - Tanjin Amin, Sankhadeep Sarkar, Guozheng Song, Ming Yang, Hans Pasman
Energy systems, defined here as chemical energy systems based on combustion or electrochemical processes, are essential for producing the materials for all our needs in daily life. Malicious physical attacks by terrorist groups or others on those systems have been known for quite a while. Since the start of the Industry 4.0 era, automation of operational technology (OT) by a cyber-physical information technology system (CPS - IT) has increased. Due to the openness of the Internet, adversary cyberattacks on the CPS can have a damaging impact on the OT with process safety consequences, which may lead to process upset and possibly disaster. To counter, measures must be introduced. These are focused on warding off attacks by installing measures to prevent damaging events and protect the OT. So far, the common protective safety measures of a process installation tend to have been treated traditionally first, while cyber-physical measures come in addition. Experts may even be distinguished in many cases into three specialist groups: existing process safety experts, physical attack experts, and cyberattack experts. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the types/characteristics of the various measures and which measures can have a multi-functional effect. Requirements for an integrated safety and security system are formulated, and characteristics of the possible threats and threat-specific measures are inventoried and described. As the integration of countermeasures to threats of a different nature is no simple matter, investment and maintenance costs, hence economic requirements, will play an important role, and planning should be based on risk assessment. No risk assessment will cover all that may happen; hence, the paper is finished by considering the ins and outs of measures to boost system resilience against unexpected and unknown threats. ...
Journal article (2024) - Rafi Ullah Khan, Jingbo Yin, Elshan Ahani, R. Nawaz, Ming Yang
Seaport infrastructure requires considerable resources and time for a full recovery from accidents caused by hazardous cargo. Despite their severity, the risk to seaport infrastructure from hazardous cargo operations has been insufficiently explored. This study aims to fill that gap by examining the risks to seaport infrastructure from the complex effects of hazardous cargo operations. It draws on literature, incident reports, and expert consultations to identify comprehensive risk factors and their interconnections. The study employs expert judgments alongside logistic regression to develop Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) and conducts a risk analysis using Bayesian networks (BN). Our findings indicate that, under typical operating conditions, fire and explosion, corrosion, and improper handling are the most significant contributors to seaport infrastructure risk with probabilities of 8.73 %, 5.88 %, and 5.61 % respectively. Inverse propagation indicates that the contribution of improper handling and corrosion is enhanced by 153 % and 96 % respectively towards the increased risk. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to pinpoint critical risk factors. Based on these insights, the study suggests practical measures like the use of tracking and monitoring systems along with third-party audits for effective handling, augmented and virtual reality for advanced training, and automation technology for reduced human roles to subside risks to seaport infrastructure and promote uninterrupted operations. ...
In the built environment, often too much focus is put on compliance instead of seeking the optimal fire-safety solution for the building. Because of a lack of tangible incentives for building owners, the benefits of implementing fire safety measures and their societal contribution are often not recognized and therefore, not considered. By means of a literature review and a survey, we have indicated necessary fire-safety related attributes and tool features and analyzed the currently available fire risk assessment tools. This study shows that a limited number of these tools can provide a partial fire risk analysis of a building. A total of 26 tools were found. No tools were found that included all the identified fire consequence-related attributes to ensure fire-safe buildings. However, we did identify 11 tools that have the potential to assess between 32 % and 52 % of the found attributes of building fire safety. To stimulate the development of such tools, this paper provides 12 factors by which to assess fire risk assessment tools – quantifying the overall ‘quality’ of the assessment tool – which can incentivize industry to refine the existing ones with enhanced predictability of the potential consequences of fire incidents. ...