E. Arango
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17 records found
1
Climate change poses escalating risks to bridge infrastructure, with short-term hazards–such as flash floods, scour, snowfall, wildfires and windstorms–interacting with long-term stressors like corrosion and thermal effects to compromise safety and functionality. The paper synthesises interdisciplinary research on these challenges, and highlights actionable adaptation strategies to enhance resilience at both asset and network levels. Two critical yet often overlooked dimensions in resilience-based bridge management are emphasised: the unique challenges of adapting heritage bridges, and the integration of human-centered approaches. These dimensions, supported by emerging digital technologies such as digital twins, IoT-enabled monitoring and AI-driven predictive tools, contribute to both the resilience and social sustainability of bridge infrastructure. By integrating technical, cultural and social considerations, the paper provides a foundational perspective for rethinking current design, preservation and maintenance practices, and for advancing infrastructure that is not only resilient to physical stressors but also socially sustainable amid accelerating climate challenges.
Wildfire preparedness
Optimal adaptation measures for strengthening road transport resilience
Understanding and enhancing the resilience of transport networks against climate-induced extreme events, such as wildfires, is critical to minimizing disruptions and their societal impacts. In this context, resilience is essential for effectively coping with these hazards, as road disruptions can hinder evacuation efforts, reduce accessibility, and lead to significant economic losses. Despite scientific progress, existing resilience assessment frameworks have limitations, including scenario-specific results and limited consideration of the underlying resilience concepts. To address these limitations, this paper introduces a resilience framework based on dynamic thresholds and characteristic curves to evaluate system recovery capacity. The framework incorporates a temporal dimension, allowing for the analysis of recovery time and recovery rate, which depend on the resources available for recovery activities. The characteristic curves illustrate system resilience by capturing key information on the preparedness, response, and recovery capacities inherent in each network. Consequently, the framework offers a more comprehensive view of system behavior during the recovery stage, as demonstrated through its application to a Portuguese case study. The insights gained can assist stakeholders in determining the feasibility of strengthening system resilience through enhanced response and recovery efforts, as well as in identifying when it is critical to reinforce resilience at earlier stages through adaptation measures.
Human intervention has modified the natural environment, increasing susceptibility to wildfires. For instance, the severity of recent fires in Maui (2023) is linked to the proliferation of invasive grasses covering significant portions of the islands. In Portugal, extensive and highly flammable eucalyptus plantations have reduced the country's resilience to wildfires (Weston, 2023). In addition, Portugal has extensive areas of undermanaged forests and shrublands that facilitate the occurrence of frequent, huge, and uncontrolled wildfires (Fernandes et al. 2016). This evidence the importance of effective landscape management as a key strategy for reducing landscape flammability and fuel continuity. Preparedness and adaptation activities become imperative for promoting wildfire resilience in the medium and long term, potentially mitigating the consequences of the new wildfire regimen (Loepfe, Martinez-Vilalta, and Piñol 2012).
Therefore, one of the main challenges for wildland fire scientists and managers is to promote more resilient landscapes and consequently, there is an eminent need for tools to support decision-making in this domain. Various frameworks exist for modelling fuel connectivity and assessing the spatial influence on fire spread, e.g., (Loehman, Keane, and Holsinger 2020; Sá et al. 2022; Aparício et al. 2022). However, these models are intrinsically attached to propagation models that primarily aim to predict wildfire occurrence, specifically fire ignition points. This connection introduces high uncertainty, especially considering that a significant portion of forest fires, particularly in the European Union, result from arson. In Portugal, for instance, 98% of fires are attributed to arson. Existing models fail to capture this high level of uncertainty adequately. Moreover, current methods are increasingly specialized, focusing on specific scenarios. Nevertheless, their limited ability to extrapolate and apply to diverse situations or conditions raises concerns about the conclusiveness of decision-making based on the analysis of a restricted number of fire events (Arango et al, 2023).
To address these issues, this study proposes the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based methodology for fire analysis, serving as a more effective tool for landscape fuel management. This tool evaluates exposure by considering various fuels, encompassing both built and natural environments. Unlike other models, this tool does not require the definition of the wildfire conditions and the location of the fire ignition, thereby eliminating associated uncertainties. Instead, the tool focuses on the system's ability to cope with such events, incorporates different intensities of wildfires including EWE, and conducts analyses at the system level. It has previously demonstrated its effectiveness in assessing various adaptation measures, capturing the influence of different fuels (sources or barriers) in exposure assessment. This study shows the tool's efficacy in landscape management by applying different fuel treatment strategies to reduce exposure to wildfires. For this, the exposure level of a case study in the Leiria region of Portugal is compared to the conditions that led to the devastating fire in 2017 and future conditions. Future scenarios involve two cases: one without implementing fuel treatment strategies and another using treatment strategies. This approach provides stakeholders with pertinent information to support necessary changes in forest management and the development of fire-resilient landscapes. The results suggest that the tool can significantly contribute to achieving certain goals outlined in the European Green Deal.
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Human intervention has modified the natural environment, increasing susceptibility to wildfires. For instance, the severity of recent fires in Maui (2023) is linked to the proliferation of invasive grasses covering significant portions of the islands. In Portugal, extensive and highly flammable eucalyptus plantations have reduced the country's resilience to wildfires (Weston, 2023). In addition, Portugal has extensive areas of undermanaged forests and shrublands that facilitate the occurrence of frequent, huge, and uncontrolled wildfires (Fernandes et al. 2016). This evidence the importance of effective landscape management as a key strategy for reducing landscape flammability and fuel continuity. Preparedness and adaptation activities become imperative for promoting wildfire resilience in the medium and long term, potentially mitigating the consequences of the new wildfire regimen (Loepfe, Martinez-Vilalta, and Piñol 2012).
Therefore, one of the main challenges for wildland fire scientists and managers is to promote more resilient landscapes and consequently, there is an eminent need for tools to support decision-making in this domain. Various frameworks exist for modelling fuel connectivity and assessing the spatial influence on fire spread, e.g., (Loehman, Keane, and Holsinger 2020; Sá et al. 2022; Aparício et al. 2022). However, these models are intrinsically attached to propagation models that primarily aim to predict wildfire occurrence, specifically fire ignition points. This connection introduces high uncertainty, especially considering that a significant portion of forest fires, particularly in the European Union, result from arson. In Portugal, for instance, 98% of fires are attributed to arson. Existing models fail to capture this high level of uncertainty adequately. Moreover, current methods are increasingly specialized, focusing on specific scenarios. Nevertheless, their limited ability to extrapolate and apply to diverse situations or conditions raises concerns about the conclusiveness of decision-making based on the analysis of a restricted number of fire events (Arango et al, 2023).
To address these issues, this study proposes the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based methodology for fire analysis, serving as a more effective tool for landscape fuel management. This tool evaluates exposure by considering various fuels, encompassing both built and natural environments. Unlike other models, this tool does not require the definition of the wildfire conditions and the location of the fire ignition, thereby eliminating associated uncertainties. Instead, the tool focuses on the system's ability to cope with such events, incorporates different intensities of wildfires including EWE, and conducts analyses at the system level. It has previously demonstrated its effectiveness in assessing various adaptation measures, capturing the influence of different fuels (sources or barriers) in exposure assessment. This study shows the tool's efficacy in landscape management by applying different fuel treatment strategies to reduce exposure to wildfires. For this, the exposure level of a case study in the Leiria region of Portugal is compared to the conditions that led to the devastating fire in 2017 and future conditions. Future scenarios involve two cases: one without implementing fuel treatment strategies and another using treatment strategies. This approach provides stakeholders with pertinent information to support necessary changes in forest management and the development of fire-resilient landscapes. The results suggest that the tool can significantly contribute to achieving certain goals outlined in the European Green Deal.
Enhancing infrastructure resilience in wildfire management to face extreme events
Insights from the Iberian Peninsula
Factors such as human activity and climate change are contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires. This problem has challenged society's knowledge, response capacity, and resilience, revealing its inadequacy to cope with the new wildfire regime characterized by extreme wildfire events (EWE). Policies on wildfire management mainly focus on suppression and managing emergencies, which may be insufficient to reduce EWE's incidence and cope with its impact. Consequently, there is a lack of tools to support decision-making in wildfire management in other important aspects, such as prevention and protection. This study examines global wildfire policies specifically in the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain), including cross-border policies. A GIS-based tool to evaluate different normal and extreme wildfire management policies is applied to a cross-border case study, paying attention to the impact on critical land-based transport systems. A relevant outcome of the tool application is that suppression must be complemented with other wildfire management strategies in the analyzed area. The gained insights can help stakeholders to improve decision-making in wildfire management to successfully address EWE.
Wildfires have become a source of concern for society due to the increase in frequency, intensity, and unpredictability. This has caused serious impacts all over the world, even in areas where this type of problem did not occur before. Studies on the adaptation of critical infrastructure have been conducted to reduce the impacts of this type of hazard influenced by climate change. However, there are currently no tools to evaluate adaptation measures and their influence on the resilience of transport infrastructure to wildfires. Therefore, this paper proposes the application of a simplified methodology to assess the priority level in interventions on bridge networks and the effectiveness of different adaptation measures. The methodology is applied to a case study in Portugal. In that sense, the results show that adaptation measures such as changing vegetation management policy and implementing wildfire spread barriers effectively reduce the exposure of bridges. Therefore, this tool can be very useful for stakeholders and practitioners supporting wildfire management in terms of adaptation measures. ...
Wildfires have become a source of concern for society due to the increase in frequency, intensity, and unpredictability. This has caused serious impacts all over the world, even in areas where this type of problem did not occur before. Studies on the adaptation of critical infrastructure have been conducted to reduce the impacts of this type of hazard influenced by climate change. However, there are currently no tools to evaluate adaptation measures and their influence on the resilience of transport infrastructure to wildfires. Therefore, this paper proposes the application of a simplified methodology to assess the priority level in interventions on bridge networks and the effectiveness of different adaptation measures. The methodology is applied to a case study in Portugal. In that sense, the results show that adaptation measures such as changing vegetation management policy and implementing wildfire spread barriers effectively reduce the exposure of bridges. Therefore, this tool can be very useful for stakeholders and practitioners supporting wildfire management in terms of adaptation measures.
The severe effects of extreme wildfire events in recent years have shown that the fire suppression approach is not enough to solve the problem. An alternative to dealing with this issue is to accept the impossibility of eliminating wildfire hazards and focus on preparing systems to be more resilient. However, existing decision-making tools based on resilience present important drawbacks that make them inadequate for this task. This paper proposes a new approach and methodology for the resilience assessment of road traffic networks to wildfires that overcomes the main drawbacks, paying attention to the different functions of the system and the acceptance of a specific loss of performance. The latter is done through the introduction of dynamic thresholds that reflect the different requirements of the system under different wildfire conditions, including normal and extreme fires. The methodology is exemplified for five traffic networks. The results support the relevance of appropriate wildfire management through the adaptation of the natural and built environment to increase the capacity of the traffic networks to cope with wildfires.
Flood risk assessment for road infrastructures using bayesian networks
Case study of santarem - portugal
Assessing flood risks on road infrastructures is critical for the definition of mitigation strategies and adaptation processes. Some efforts have been made to conduct a regional flood risk assessment to support the decision-making process of exposed areas. However, these approaches focus on the physical damage of civil infrastructures without considering indirect impacts resulting from social aspects or traffic delays due to the functionality loss of transportation infrastructures. Moreover, existing methodologies do not include a proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the risk quantification. This work aims to provide a consistent quantitative flood risk estimation and influence factor modelling for road infrastructures. To this end, a Flood Risk Factor (FRF) is computed as a function of hazard, vulnerability, and infrastructure importance factors. A Bayesian Network (BN) is constructed for considering the interdependencies among the selected input factors, as well as accounting for the uncertainties involved in the modelling process. The proposed approach allows weighting the relevant factors differently to compute the FRF and improves the understanding of the causal relations between them. The suggested method is applied to a case study located in the region of Santarem Portugal, allowing the identification of the sub-basins where the road network has the highest risks and illustrating the potential of Bayesian inference techniques for updating the model when new information becomes available.