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G.L.L.M.E. Reniers

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Process safety and process security share the common goal of protecting people, assets, and the environment, yet they remain largely fragmented in regulation and practice. This separation obscures the coupled nature of accidental and intentional risks in the chemical process industry and creates blind spots in how safety–security interactions are managed. To address this challenge, this study develops the Resilience-oriented Process Safety and Process Security (RoPSS) framework, which integrates both domains through four resilience capabilities (Anticipation, Absorption, Adaptation, and Ascension) embedded within a six-step management cycle. The framework introduces Ascension as an evolutionary capability that consolidates restoration, learning, continuous improvement, and prevention, extending resilience beyond recovery toward longer-term system strengthening. A structured catalogue of 50 performance indicators, organized by disruption type, resilience capability, and indicator category, provides measurable means to assess both operational and governance resilience. These indicators were defined and refined through focused expert elicitation, including an importance-availability assessment used as a formative step for indicator prioritization. An illustrative example in a chlor-alkali plant shows how RoPSS supports integrated disruption mapping, shared objective setting, and resilience-enhancing strategies. Overall, the framework offers an expert-informed conceptual basis for managing coupled safety–security risks and provides a foundation for future empirical evaluation, industrial application, and resilience benchmarking. ...
Journal article (2026) - Zhichao He, Genserik Reniers, Kaixin Shen, Yiping Bai, Meng Lan, Xinyan Huang, Wei Qi, Xiaoli Lyu, Xiaole Zhang, Wenguo Weng
Shelter-in-place (SIP) is an effective emergency response strategy for the public in case of emergencies following natural disasters and technological accidents. However, the application of SIP strategy in chemical industries is limited due to insufficient data on multi-hazard chemical accidents. This paper presents a dynamic risk assessment-based method for the optimization of SIP locations during chemical accidents involving fires, explosions, and toxic releases. By integrating accident consequence, escalation probability, and damage analysis models and synthetic data generation of the scenarios of domino processes of multi-hazard chemical accidents, the method optimizes both shelter locations and evacuation routes according to the cumulative individual risk indicator. A chemical park in Guangzhou, China, is adopted as a case study to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The case study demonstrates that reasonable SIP location and evacuation route planning can significantly reduce evacuation time and decrease evacuation risk by nearly 70%. By considering human, spatial, and exposure factors in the optimization of SIP locations, the proposed method can effectively enhance the life-saving effectiveness in dynamic multi-hazard chemical accidents, especially in areas where evacuation is difficult (e.g. islands and mountainous regions). This study is expected to contribute to the improvement of emergency management capacity of multi-hazard chemical accidents. ...
Review (2026) - Yujie Huang, Fuqiang Yang, Meijuan Lan, Genserik Reniers, Xuping Ni
It is well known that lithium-ion batteries(LIBs) plays an important role in the energy storage space. This bibliometric study presents a visualized analysis of research trends related to lithium-ion batteries thermal runaway(LIBsTR) from 1996 to 2024. The annual publication trend shows exponential growth, transitioning from a niche concern to a mainstream priority in battery science. China leads in research output, followed by the United States, while European nations contribute high-quality but fragmented work. Chinese academic institutions are highly productive in this field. Co-authorship analysis reveals a centralized research ecosystem dominated by Chinese teams, with emerging open-collaboration models. The Journal of Energy Storage and the Journal of Power Sources are among the most productive journals, and the latter has the highest citation influence. Citation analysis indicates that top-cited papers have significantly impacted the field, with Chinese-affiliated authors becoming prominent post-2015. Keyword analysis shows that “thermal runaway,” “lithium-ion battery,” and “safety” are core topics. Four keyword clusters identify different research focuses, including battery components, thermal management, battery state diagnosis, and thermal runaway mechanisms. The research evolution has shifted from basic understanding to practical applications. Future research should focus on data-driven methods, early-warning systems, battery thermal management, and the development of high-power and high-energy-density battery safety technologies. However, this study has limitations, such as relying solely on the WoS database and potential tool-related restrictions. ...
Journal article (2026) - Wei Zhou, Guohua Chen, Yimeng Zhao, Genserik Reniers, Valerio Cozzani, Zixuan Gong
Chemical industrial park cyber physical systems combine process equipment, utility systems, control systems, and information infrastructure. A local disturbance can therefore spread across domains through state dependent relations, propagation delays, and changes in operating load. Existing topology-based models often do not represent these mechanisms or the timing of recovery actions. This study develops an event-driven heterogeneous multilayer network model and an Adaptive Recovery Priority Scheduling strategy for a plant representative system with 251 nodes and 369 directed relations. The model separates engineering load from structural centrality, represents multiple operating states and relation specific consequences, and resolves all events at the same timestamp before the simulation clock advances. Cascade influence is estimated as a source to target conditional probability matrix from stable event-driven realizations. ARPS ranks eligible repairs using projected mission weighted functionality change, cascade exposure, and service-ready recovery time. The framework is evaluated under 12 stress conditions, three disruption scenarios, six recovery strategies, and 30 matched physical worlds for each scenario and stress condition. All 24 checkpoint comparisons satisfied the normalized Frobenius and NCI Spearman convergence criteria. Thirteen nodes remained in the highest 10 % of the NCI ranking under all stress conditions, although membership near the cutoff varied. ARPS achieved the lowest mean recovery loss in all 36 base groups. Among 180 predefined paired comparisons, 179 had 95 % confidence intervals with upper bounds below zero. These results suggest that event-driven modeling combined with safety-oriented recovery criteria can contribute to improved resilience in industrial cyber–physical systems. ...

Risk identification, limitations analysis, and future perspectives

Journal article (2026) - Yimeng Zhao, Guohua Chen, Genserik Reniers, Valerio Cozzani
With the advent of the artificial intelligence (AI) era, the chemical industrial park cyber-physical system (CIPCPS) has been widely regarded as an effective strategy for promoting the intelligent upgrading of traditional chemical industrial parks. However, it is accompanied by both opportunities and challenges. Traditional chemical industry risk assessment methods mainly focus on physical space, thereby overlooking the risks arising from the cyber space. To ensure the safety and security of CIPCPS, this study explores the following questions: (i) What emerging risks is CIPCPS currently facing? (ii) Regarding these risks, what are the current research advancements in assessment methods, and what limitations do they have? (iii) How to conduct an integrated risk assessment for CIPCPS? The results show that current research on CIPCPSs has not yet provided a systematic classification of various risk types and specific risk factors. Gaps are identified in the traditional risk assessment methods, including insufficient multi-source data fusion capabilities, limited algorithmic interpretability, and the failure to consider the unique consequence amplification effect of domino accidents in CIPCPSs. To address these issues, this study classifies the specific risk types and factors through historical accident case analysis. On this basis, an integrated risk evolution framework for CIPCPSs is developed, dividing the process into three phases: Disturbance-System induction, System-Accident evolution, and Accident-System feedback. Finally, four recommendations are proposed to guide the conduct of integrated risk assessment, providing a theoretical basis for future risk management of CIPCPSs. ...
Journal article (2026) - Shile He, Jianfeng Zhou, Genserik Reniers
This study proposes a dynamic decision-making framework for fire emergency management in hazardous chemical storage tank areas, based on Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. The framework comprises two core components: the generation of initial response strategies and the evaluation of them. By analyzing the thermal radiation coupling effect between tanks, this study introduces the closeness centrality metric to identify key tank nodes, for which multiple emergency response strategies are further formulated. To evaluate these emergency response strategies, this study employs influence diagrams to evaluate the utility of each strategy and proposes a simplified utility function. The study further evaluates the impact of domino effects by dynamically updating the influence diagram, recalculating the closeness centrality, and adjusting the key nodes based on the assumption that a fire spreads to adjacent tanks. A case study illustrates that, across a range of firefighting and cooling efficiency assumptions, the framework successfully adapts to changing scenarios, optimizing strategies to improve the timeliness and accuracy of emergency responses. This provides a viable optimization method for complex tank fire emergency decision-making. ...

Influence of Ethical Fading in (Petro)Chemical Industry

Journal article (2025) - Benjamin Elias Ziskoven, Martin de Bree, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers, K.L.L. van Nunen
A lack of safety awareness in industrial companies can cause substantial harm to people and the environment. This study explores how fading of safety awareness influences safety-related decisions in (petro)chemical companies. Drawing on ethical fading theory, the research aims to better understand the mechanism that causes safety to decline and to identify ways to prevent this process and reduce safety incidents. Semi-structured interviews were conducted within the (petro)chemical industry to explore this phenomenon. The findings suggest that self-interest plays a more significant role in safety incidents than previously assumed and manifests in multiple forms that contribute to the fading of safety awareness. Moreover, self-interest was seldom identified as a formal root cause of incidents, likely because the fading process occurs largely at a subconscious level, as described in ethical fading theory. Finally, the study found that neutralization techniques were frequently used to justify unsafe behavior, both ex ante and ex post. These insights extend existing theory by linking ethical fading to safety management and highlight the need for interventions that address subconscious drivers of unsafe decision-making. ...
Book chapter (2025) - Shuaiqi Yuan, Genserik Reniers
With the increasing automation and digitization of industrial facilities, cyber-physical systems (CPSs) have become integral to production and operational processes in the chemical process industries. However, this integration also brings new challenges, particularly due to emerging risks associated with cyber-physical attacks. These risks underscore the urgent need for effective assessment and management of CPSs, especially in addressing the synergistic effects of safety hazards and security threats—a topic that has received growing attention from researchers in recent years. This chapter begins by examining the necessity and advantages of integrated safety and security (S&S) risk assessment, emphasizing the overlapping scope of safety and security and the importance of identifying multiple types of risk sources. It then provides a brief review on existing methodologies that support the analysis of integrated S&S risks for CPSs in chemical plants. Next, the chapter demonstrates the implementation of a systematic approach utilizing Bayesian networks for integrated safety and security risk assessments tailored specifically to industrial CPSs in the chemical process industries. Finally, the chapter discusses existing limitations and offers suggestions for future research before concluding. ...

A machine learning approach to improve probit models

Journal article (2025) - Min Jiang, Yu Yang, Jiexiang Bian, Mengru Fang, Valerio Cozzani, Genserik Reniers, Chao Chen
Explosion-induced domino accidents in the chemical industry, such as the 2005 Buncefield and 2019 Xiangshui accidents, can lead to catastrophic losses. Recent studies commonly use probit models (simplified linear regression models) to predict the probability of accident escalation caused by equipment failure due to overpressure conditions but necessitate distinct equations for different equipment types. In order to simplify the number of models and improve their accuracy, this study introduced three machine learning models (random forest model, convolutional neural network model, and deep neural network model), addressing complex nonlinear relationships that conventional regression models may not fully capture. By model training, the DNN model has the highest accuracy (99 %), followed by CNN (94 %) and random RF (95 %). The DNN model was selected as the optimal data-driven model for equipment vulnerability assessment due to their feedforward mechanism's capability to dynamically align parameters with evolving data distributions. The approach developed can not only predict the probability of equipment damage by integrating values related to peak overpressure and equipment type but also effectively address the accuracy validation issues associated with traditional regression models. Besides, this approach can be considered open source model and more explosion data may be used in the future to further improve the model. ...
Review (2025) - Chao Chen, Jiali Tang, Jie Li, Genserik Reniers, Changjun Li
The rapid industrialization and urbanization in China require a high level of safety management and thus urge the development of safety risk assessment in China. In the past two decades, many safety risk assessment research findings have been published in international journals by Chinese scholars, while it is not clear the development progress and China's contributions to the world in this research field. Therefore, a systematic and thorough literature review is conducted to investigate risk assessment research in China. Firstly, the research publications authored by Chinese scholars are searched from the well-known literature database Web of Science to support the analysis of risk assessment research in China. Secondly, a bibliometric analysis is conducted for the obtained literature related to risk assessment research in China to find out publication trends, research organizations, research authors, research topics, and research methods. Then, a thorough analysis of research topics and research methods is carried out to present the research progress. Finally, possible future research issues in the risk assessment research domain are discussed based on this literature review. According to the discussion, more attention in China should be paid to the risk of digital or autonomous systems, the risk related to extreme events, and the risk in large cities. ...
Review (2025) - Paul Lindhout, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers
Battery-powered applications are rapidly spreading in handheld, domestic, business and power storage appliances and in propelling a range of electric vehicles. Fast developments of new battery technology sparked an equally fast development of a new and wide range of applications, showing new safety problems at the same time. The acceptability of these new safety risks across the range has so far not been thoroughly assessed due to lack of statistical incident data. This study explores the wide range of new technology-based battery applications where people are exposed to these hazards, gathers credible incident scenarios and assesses currently available means for incident prevention and mitigation. Battery fire, explosion and toxic fume incidents are emerging as key safety issues in aerospace, shipping, transport and storage, waste handling, the high-risk chemical industry, domestic appliances, industrial power storage, road traffic and carparks. Incidents are causing severe injuries, death and considerable environmental impacts and financial losses. Implementation of both preventive and repressive safety measures is ongoing, yet complicated due to re-ignition and chemicals involved in battery fires. New firefighting strategies and techniques are needed. The authors present an indicative risk assessment based on the presence of risk factors, as derived from a triangulation of experiences reported from practice, scientific literature findings and expert interviews, thereby initiating a risk-based perspective. Several ways to move forward are recommended. ...
Journal article (2025) - Y. Xu, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers, M. Yang
Decisions in complex systems need support from formal risk management. Traditional risk management, based on a "rational" idea of risk (the actual damage linked with probabilities), often diverges from public perceptions, leading to conflicts between expert-led evaluations and societal acceptance. Two research directions have emerged to bridge this gap: enhancing stakeholder participation in risk management, and incorporating emotional factors into risk assessment. Building on these efforts, we propose a systematic methodology integrating stakeholders' emotional considerations into formal risk management. Our approach combines a refined risk conceptualization with a structured stakeholder engagement process. An illustrative example involving an ammonia plant site-selection risk problem is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. The proposed approach offers a potential way to resolve conflicts and enhance public trust in risk management. ...
Journal article (2025) - Matteo Valente, Genserik Reniers, Valerio Cozzani
Domino effects triggered by fire are responsible for most of the cascading accidents which occurred in the chemical and process industry. Their occurrence is highly dependent on the performance of fire protection barriers, as well as on the primary fire scenario. Active and passive safety barriers are largely used to prevent or mitigate domino effects. However, a blinkered allocation approach of safety measures based on a subjective strategy, which does not consider cascading effects possibly triggered by an accident, can lead to a deployment of a safety plan that is not effective in effectively mitigating the consequences of a domino accident. In the present study, an innovative methodology supporting and optimizing the decision-making process for fire prevention in a chemical site has been developed. The methodology provides an optimal allocation of safety measures, aimed at preventing and mitigating fire escalation under budget constraints. A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis with an optimization algorithm is used to allocate a limited budget in terms of fire safety barriers. A novel tool, named Cost Variable Decision Tree, has been developed to support fire prevention investment decisions. The methodology is able to assess the economics of safety plan implementation, considering both the costs of safety measures and the hypothetical benefits deriving from avoided accidents. An illustrative case-study was carried out, confirming that the proposed methodology can effectively support the decision-making process addressing safety barriers allocation. ...
Journal article (2025) - Yaodong Ou, Jianfeng Zhou, Genserik Reniers
In the fire related domino effect analysis of storage tanks, time to failure is a very important issue, which helps to analyze the time characteristics of accident propagation in a certain area, and is also an important parameter for some methods to determine the failure probability of target tanks. This study carries out a numerical simulation to analyze the time to failure of tanks under fire with respect to domino effects, taking the time at which the tank wall stress exceeds the yield strength as the failure time of the corresponding tank. Two scenarios of fire escalation in domino effects are studied, and the time to failure under the synergistic effect of thermal radiations is analyzed. More importantly, this study performs the analysis of time to failure of the target tank considering heat radiation accumulation, that is, under the circumstance of successive multiple tank fires, the fire thermal radiations from multiple fires do not simultaneously influence the target storage tank, but they have an accumulation effect in the target tank, and this way influence the time to failure of the tank. ...
Journal article (2025) - Paul Lindhout, Genserik Reniers
Introduction: Recent developments in a wide variety of cyber-physical system (CPS) designs have resulted in many safety and security concerns. These are caused by increasing complexity, connectivity to the outside world, and a variety of component types, all contributing to increased system vulnerability. Simultaneously, the use of digital models, big data analytics, remote computing, online services, and machine learning extends manufacturing systems far beyond their physical and visible boundaries. Focusing on industry and healthcare settings, this study explores the challenges faced by safety and security management originating from these developments.

Method: The scoping review method was used to gather literature on safety and security concerns. These are grouped and linked to the CPS components. Subsequently, their impact is reviewed from the perspective of safety and security management systems.

Results: The findings indicate that safety and security management become entangled, many new risks need to be considered, and the availability of online digital real-time system components and employee skills are critical factors. Some of the sensors and safety metrics software must now be classified as safety-critical because robots and people have started to share the same workspace. The rapid developments and many unresolved issues on design, ethics, data and software quality, external supervision, standards and guidance, legal frameworks, and online system components abroad urgently require attention. In the discussion, several recommendations are made regarding how safety and security management can address these challenges.

Conclusions: While robots and people increasingly mingle on shop floors and in care situations, safety management is lagging behind current CPS developments. New critical safety aspects require the attention of safety and security management. Practical applications: These findings in safety and security management systems will contribute to avoiding harm to people and the environment in companies operating CPS. One sentence summary: This study presents a structured way to deal with safety management of Cyber-Physical-Systems.
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Journal article (2025) - Leonardo Giannini, Genserik Reniers, Ming Yang, Maria Nogal, Nicola Paltrinieri
The evolving energy landscape in Europe is showing concrete signals that hydrogen will play a central role in the energy transition scenario. In this light, a report of the European Hydrogen Backbone pinpoints no less than forty existing projects focused on the commissioning of several kilometers of hydrogen pipelines in the following years. Hence, ensuring a safe operability of these systems represents a topic worthy of investigation and marked by significant challenges, especially given the unique properties that make hydrogen a potentially hazardous substance. Established techniques may prove helpful in supporting the development of dedicated prevention and mitigation strategies for hydrogen systems. Among these, Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) could represent an effective tool to design inspection programs aimed at the detection of hydrogen-induced damages, especially for components working in pressurized environments, including pipeline materials. However, the lack of operational experience associated with emerging technologies may lead to the adoption of over-conservative safety measures, which could impact the economic attractiveness of these systems. Therefore, this study proposes an evolution of conventional RBI planning by implementing concepts of safety economics and optimization modelling, thus building a novel approach named “Cost-Informed Risk-Based Inspection” (CIRBI). The proposed methodology is therefore applied to a case study of inspection techniques potentially suitable for pipeline materials (i.e., API X-series pipeline steels), showcasing its potential as a self-standing approach for inspection planning while also demonstrating the insight that it may provide to ensure a safe operability of hydrogen pipelines. ...

A new framework to manage major event risks in chemical plants

Journal article (2025) - Shuaiqi Yuan, Genserik Reniers, Ming Yang
Chemical process industries are threatened by accidental and intentional major events that may lead to catastrophic consequences due to hazardous materials' production, operation, and storage. Remarkably, the digitalization of industrial facilities brings emerging cyber-physical attack risks, which calls for a holistic and integrated safety and security risk assessment and management. Considering the dynamic aspects of risks, the continuous monitoring and assessment of risk-related variations plays a vital role in making timely adaptions to risk treatment strategies and, therefore, accommodating increasing risks. To this end, this study proposes a comprehensive framework for risk-based safety and security barrier management, handling challenges in assessing integrated safety and security risks and deriving timely and cost-efficient barrier improvement strategies in case undesired risks are increasing to unacceptable levels. The fundamental ideas and applicable procedures are elaborated before a case study is demonstrated to offer insights into its feasibility. The case study shows that implementing this framework holds advantages in managing safety and security risks in a unified way, considering the interplays between safety and security and making continuous risk-treatment adaptions to sustain the safety and security of digitalized chemical process systems. Furthermore, the principles and precautionary considerations pertinent to this new framework are discussed to foster its application in real-world settings. ...
Journal article (2025) - Jianfeng Zhou, Genserik Reniers
In the process industry, hazardous chemical accidents can easily cause heavy loss, and emergency response is an important approach to reduce it. In the process of emergency response, many emergency tasks have different characteristics in their execution. This study analyzes the impact of the dynamic changes of emergency response personnel on the emergency tasks, and deduces the relationship between the execution time of an emergency task and the number of people with the time they join the task. Aiming to model the emergency response process under the possible dynamic change of the emergency task execution time, the dynamic timed Petri-net (DTPN) is proposed by improving the timed Petri-net (TPN) on the basis of the execution mechanism of transition, and the corresponding models are established according to several basic execution characteristics of the emergency tasks. The proposed approach is used to model the emergency response of on-site responders to a fire in a storage tank, and the time analysis is carried out. The results show that the approach can well solve the problem of modeling and analysis of emergency tasks with dynamic execution characteristics. ...

Practitioner Insights for a Resilience-Oriented Framework

Journal article (2025) - M.S. Bin Ab Rahim, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers, M. Yang, Parthiban Siwayanan
Integrating process safety and process security risk management is increasingly essential for enhancing resilience in the chemical process industry. This study addresses how practitioners perceive the integration of these two domains, identifying key benefits, barriers, and strategies for effective implementation. A mixed-methods approach was applied, combining quantitative survey data from 47 industry professionals with qualitative insights from open-ended responses. The findings highlight significant advantages of integration, such as optimized resource use, reduced operational redundancies, and improved risk management. However, barriers such as knowledge gaps, resource constraints, and communication silos were identified. Respondents emphasized the importance of adopting a resilience-oriented approach involving proactive risk management, continuous improvement, and adaptability in both safety and security practices. Critical enablers for integration include strong leadership, alignment of societal values, cross-disciplinary training, and integrated risk assessment methodologies. Emerging technologies and regulatory alignment were also identified as critical factors in facilitating integration. The study contributes to the theoretical understanding of integrated risk management by supporting resilience engineering and systems theory. It offers actionable strategies for overcoming barriers and leveraging enablers, laying the groundwork for developing a resilience-oriented framework for process safety and process security risk management. ...
In recent years, the relationship between academia and the fossil fuel industry has become a focal point of intense debate. This concern arises from the fear that corporate funding might skew research activities. A significant development in this area is the adoption of policies by a Dutch university, and discussions in several others, prohibiting research funded by the fossil fuel industry. These policies aim to safeguard academic freedom and integrity. Despite this, there has been little discussion on the myriad challenges, implications, and possible unintended consequences, particularly in the realm of safety-and-security research. As such, this manuscript delves into the complex transition towards a fossil-fuel-free society, examining it through the lenses of safety science and sociotechnical systems. It emphasizes the vital importance of collective responsibility in ensuring systemic safety and security as we navigate towards achieving the sustainable development goals. This journey requires a delicate balance between the objectives of safety and sustainability, along with a deep understanding of the security implications of decreasing our dependence on the fossil fuel industry. The strategy of distancing academic research from fossil fuel industries, commonly seen as a positive step, also demands a nuanced consideration of its broader impacts, including the setting of precedents for addressing other existential and systemic risks. Instead, we argue for the establishment of robust governance structures rooted in restorative justice principles. Such frameworks can facilitate productive dialogue with underrepresented groups, motivate the fossil fuel industry towards sustainable practices, and safeguard the integrity of scholarly research. This approach not only addresses immediate concerns related to fossil fuels but also lays the groundwork for a more inclusive and equitable model of climate risk research, essential for tackling the multifaceted challenges of our era. ...