Modeling Low Energy Demand Futures for Buildings
Current State and Research Needs
Alessio Mastrucci (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Leila Niamir (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Benigna Boza-Kiss (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Nuno Bento (Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL))
Dominik Wiedenhofer (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)
Jan Streeck (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)
Shonali Pachauri (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Charlie Wilson (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, University of Oxford)
Souran Chatterjee (Plymouth University)
Felix Creutzig (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Technical University of Berlin)
Srihari Dukkipati
Wei Feng (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
Arnulf Grubler (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Joni Jupesta
Poornima Kumar (University of Oxford)
Giacomo Marangoni (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)
Yamina Saheb
Yoshiyuki Shimoda (Osaka University)
Bianka Shoai-Tehrani (Reseau de Transport d'Electricite)
Yohei Yamaguchi (Osaka University)
Bas van Ruijven (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
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Abstract
Buildings are key in supporting human activities and well-being by providing shelter and other important services to their users. Buildings are, however, also responsible for major energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their life cycle. Improving the quality of services provided by buildings while reaching low energy demand (LED) levels is crucial for climate and sustainability targets. Building sector models have become essential tools for decision support on strategies to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions. Yet current models have significant limitations in their ability to assess the transformations required for LED. We review building sector models ranging from the subnational to the global scale to identify best practices and critical gaps in representing transformations toward LED futures. We focus on three key dimensions of intervention (socio-behavioral, infrastructural, and technological), three megatrends (digitalization, sharing economy, and circular economy), and decent living standards. This review recommends the model developments needed to better assess LED transformations in buildings and support decision-making toward sustainability targets.
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