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G. Marangoni

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10 records found

Journal article (2025) - Nicola Leuratti, G. Marangoni, Laurent Drouet, L.M. Kamp, J.H. Kwakkel
Geopolitical tensions and conflicts can disrupt energy markets, threatening international energy supply security and imposing financial stress on energy-intensive industries reliant on imported fossil fuels. Exploring the challenges and opportunities associated with supply diversification is crucial for understanding the potential for hard-to-abate industry decarbonization under the risk of future energy price shocks. In this context, we investigate the role of green hydrogen as a viable and sustainable alternative to natural gas applications in iron and steel manufacturing. We first quantify how the integration of green hydrogen into the existing infrastructure can complement stringent climate action ambitions in reducing CO2 emissions over the next five decades. We find that green hydrogen acts as a transitional technology, enabling a gradual shift towards electrification of heat supply while bridging the gap until low-carbon steel technologies become commercially feasible. Furthermore, we assess the benefits of timely green hydrogen investments in mitigating the economic repercussions of unforeseen natural gas price surges. Overall, this study underscores the potential of green hydrogen in decarbonizing the iron and steel industry while promoting energy independence, but it also highlights its contingency on sufficiently ambitious climate policies and adequate technological advancements. ...
Journal article (2025) - Jessika E. Trancik, Erin Baker, Gregory Nemet, Magdalena M. Klemun, Rebecca J. Hanes, Kavita Surana, Doug Arent, Samuel F. Baldwin, Giacomo Marangoni
Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed—for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives. ...

Model coupling for advanced climate policy analysis

Journal article (2025) - Tatiana Filatova, Joos Akkerman, Nicholas R. Magliocca, Giacomo Marangoni, Stefan Nabernegg, Anton Pichler, Adrian Poujon, Karolina Safarzynska, Alessandro Taberna, Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld, Liz Verbeek, Taoyuan Wei, Francesco Bosello, Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis, Ignasi Cortés Arbués, Amineh Ghorbani, Olga Ivanova, Nina Knittel, Jan Kwakkel, Francesco Lamperti
Climate policy faces increasingly complex challenges that span multiple human decision scales in nature-society systems. Contemporary climate policy models, while valuable and increasingly versatile in handling spatial and temporal scales, struggle to capture interacting multiscale decisions on the socioeconomic side. This perspective draws attention to the power of coupling among different modeling families, taking integrated assessment models (IAM), computable general equilibrium models (CGE), and agent-based models (ABM) as examples. Recent computational advances, maturity of models, availability of data, and interdisciplinary expertise make model coupling an increasingly feasible, effective, and useful tool for climate policy analysis. We examine the unique contributions of each modeling approach, highlight synergies from uniting their strengths, and discuss alternatives to and conditions for coupling. In addressing methodological challenges, we present examples of effective coupling of IAM-ABM-CGE, emphasizing the importance of maintaining model integrity while enhancing policy relevance. By bridging human decision scales and leveraging complementary strengths, coupled models can provide nuanced insights into climate-economy interactions, ultimately supporting effective and equitable-not just efficient and optimal-climate policies. ...

Complementary strengths, policy support, and research avenues

Journal article (2025) - Laura Scherer, Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld, Nicole J. van den Berg, Stephanie Cap, Agnese Fuortes, Lynn de Jager, Ryu Koide, Arjan de Koning, Giacomo Marangoni, More authors...
Lifestyle changes are an essential, complementary measure for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and, therefore, also an important ingredient to climate policy. Computational models of lifestyle changes and their contribution to climate change mitigation can provide valuable insights in support of decision-making by individuals and policymaking. In this Perspective, we examine four modelling approaches with this in mind: input-output analysis, life cycle assessment, integrated assessment models, and agent-based models. They have different strengths and weaknesses related to spatial and temporal scales, sector representation, consumer heterogeneity, and impact assessment. Despite their differences, all are ultimately suitable for modelling different types of climate-friendly lifestyle changes – from sufficiency over efficiency to modal shift measures. Each modelling approach provides useful, albeit partial, insights into lifestyle changes. The identified challenges call for both continual refinements within individual model frameworks and hybrid methods that bridge their respective strengths and allow for representing lifestyle changes more comprehensively. Together, they inform about the theoretical mitigation potential, initiative feasibility, behavioural plasticity, and policy effectiveness of lifestyle changes. Ultimately, cross-disciplinary collaboration will be key to designing lifestyle-focused policies that are both impactful and acceptable. ...
Journal article (2025) - Rik van Heerden, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Johanna Hoppe, Paul Kishimoto, Florian Leblanc, Julien Lefèvre, Gunnar Luderer, Giacomo Marangoni, Alessio Mastrucci, Hazel Pettifor, Robert Pietzcker, Pedro Rochedo, Vassilis Daioglou, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Charlie Wilson, Sonia Yeh, Eleftheria Zisarou, Detlef van Vuuren, Thomas Le Gallic, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Alice Di Bella, Francesco Pietro Colelli, Johannes Emmerling, Panagiotis Fragkos, Robin Hasse
Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure. ...
Journal article (2025) - Rik van Heerden, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Vassilis Daioglou, Thomas Le Gallic, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Alice Di Bella, Francesco Pietro Colelli, Johannes Emmerling, Giacomo Marangoni, More Authors...
Large emission reductions in buildings and transport are possible by integrating demand-side strategies to electrify energy use, improve technological efficiency, and reduce or shift patterns of activity. With enabling policies and infrastructures, final energy users can make significant contributions to climate goals, particularly through widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles. ...
Conference paper (2024) - Yu Zheng, Johannes Emmerling, Carolina Grottera, Giacomo Marangoni
The role of inequality for the evaluation and policy response to climate change has received great attention in recent years. Yet, endogenizing the evolvement of inequality has so far not been addressed with standard IAMs widely used. We address this research gap by developing an inequality module based on household deciles and an optimization routine for each group of households. Capturing skill premia, capital income dynamics, and consumption heterogeneity including energy and food consumption, we are able to endogenously simulate the impact of carbon prices and other macroeconomic drivers on the evolvement of inequality consistent with the IAM socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Moreover, we validate the module by a hind-casting exercise and find broad consistence with observed inequality trends. ...
Journal article (2024) - Johannes Emmerling, Pietro Andreoni, Carolina Grottera, Celine Guivarch, Ulrike Kornek, Elmar Kriegler, Daniele Malerba, Giacomo Marangoni, Aurélie Méjean, Femke Nijsse, Franziska Piontek, Yeliz Simsek, Ioannis Charalampidis, Bjoern Soergel, Nicolas Taconet, Toon Vandyck, Marie Young-Brun, Shiya Zhao, Yu Zheng, Massimo Tavoni, Shouro Dasgupta, Francis Dennig, Simon Feindt, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos, Shinichiro Fujimori, Martino Gilli
Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large-scale integrated assessment models that belong to different economic paradigms and feature income heterogeneity. We quantify the distributional implications of climate impacts and of the varying compensation schemes of climate policies compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. By 2100, climate impacts will increase inequality by 1.4 points of the Gini index on average. Maintaining global mean temperature below 1.5 °C reduces long-term inequality increase by two-thirds but increases it slightly in the short term. However, equal per-capita redistribution can offset the short-term effect, lowering the Gini index by almost two points. We quantify model uncertainty and find robust evidence that well-designed policies can help stabilize climate and promote economic inclusion. ...
Journal article (2024) - Sara Giarola, Leonardo Chiani, Laurent Drouet, Giacomo Marangoni, Francesco Nappo, Raya Muttarak, Massimo Tavoni
In this work, we systematically analyse the population projections used in the emissions scenario ensembles reviewed by the Working Group III in the latest three reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We show that emissions scenarios span smaller demographic uncertainties than alternative estimates both for the world and for critical regions, such as South-East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and China. Furthermore, the range of demographic projections has consistently shrunk over subsequent reports, exposing a problematic convergence towards a single socio-economic pathway: the “middle path” or SSP2. We argue that the undersampling of population uncertainties limits the range of future emission trajectories and has implications for climate transition scenarios. Emissions scenarios with a wider set of assumptions about future population should be submitted to the IPCC. The methods utilised in this study inform the development of independent audit methods for the assessment of relevant uncertainty sources in IPCC databases. ...
Review (2023) - Alessio Mastrucci, Leila Niamir, Srihari Dukkipati, Wei Feng, Arnulf Grubler, Joni Jupesta, Poornima Kumar, Giacomo Marangoni, Yamina Saheb, Yoshiyuki Shimoda, Bianka Shoai-Tehrani, Yohei Yamaguchi, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Bas van Ruijven, Nuno Bento, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Jan Streeck, Shonali Pachauri, Charlie Wilson, Souran Chatterjee, Felix Creutzig
Buildings are key in supporting human activities and well-being by providing shelter and other important services to their users. Buildings are, however, also responsible for major energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their life cycle. Improving the quality of services provided by buildings while reaching low energy demand (LED) levels is crucial for climate and sustainability targets. Building sector models have become essential tools for decision support on strategies to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions. Yet current models have significant limitations in their ability to assess the transformations required for LED. We review building sector models ranging from the subnational to the global scale to identify best practices and critical gaps in representing transformations toward LED futures. We focus on three key dimensions of intervention (socio-behavioral, infrastructural, and technological), three megatrends (digitalization, sharing economy, and circular economy), and decent living standards. This review recommends the model developments needed to better assess LED transformations in buildings and support decision-making toward sustainability targets. ...