Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050
Rik van Heerden (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving)
Oreane Y. Edelenbosch (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, Universiteit Utrecht)
Vassilis Daioglou (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, Universiteit Utrecht)
Thomas Le Gallic (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED))
Luiz Bernardo Baptista (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
Alice Di Bella (Politecnico di Milano, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)
Francesco Pietro Colelli (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Ca' Foscari University Venice)
Johannes Emmerling (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)
Panagiotis Fragkos (E3-Modelling)
Robin Hasse (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Technical University of Berlin)
Johanna Hoppe (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Technical University of Berlin)
Paul Kishimoto (International Institute for Applied System Analysis)
Florian Leblanc (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED))
Julien Lefèvre (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED))
Gunnar Luderer (Technical University of Berlin, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Giacomo Marangoni (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, TU Delft - Policy Analysis)
Alessio Mastrucci (International Institute for Applied System Analysis)
Hazel Pettifor (University of Oxford)
Robert Pietzcker (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Pedro Rochedo (Khalifa University)
Bas van Ruijven (International Institute for Applied System Analysis)
Roberto Schaeffer (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
Charlie Wilson (University of Oxford, International Institute for Applied System Analysis)
Sonia Yeh (Chalmers University of Technology)
Eleftheria Zisarou (E3-Modelling)
Detlef van Vuuren (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, Universiteit Utrecht)
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Abstract
Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.
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