A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change
Johannes Emmerling (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)
Pietro Andreoni (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Politecnico di Milano)
Ioannis Charalampidis (E3-Modelling)
Shouro Dasgupta (London School of Economics and Political Science, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Ca' Foscari University Venice)
Francis Dennig (United Nations Development Programme)
Simon Feindt (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Technical University of Berlin)
Dimitris Fragkiadakis (E3-Modelling)
Panagiotis Fragkos (E3-Modelling)
Shinichiro Fujimori (Graduate School of Engineering)
Martino Gilli (Università Bocconi, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)
Carolina Grottera (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
Celine Guivarch (UPE, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED))
Ulrike Kornek (Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Elmar Kriegler (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, University of Potsdam)
Daniele Malerba (German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS))
Giacomo Marangoni (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)
Aurélie Méjean (ENS-PSL Research University & CNRS, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED))
Femke Nijsse (University of Exeter)
Franziska Piontek (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Yeliz Simsek (University of Exeter, Australian National University)
Bjoern Soergel (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Nicolas Taconet (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Toon Vandyck (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)
Marie Young-Brun (Halle Institute for Economic Research, University of Leipzig)
Shiya Zhao (Graduate School of Engineering)
Yu Zheng (Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales)
Massimo Tavoni (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Politecnico di Milano)
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Abstract
Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large-scale integrated assessment models that belong to different economic paradigms and feature income heterogeneity. We quantify the distributional implications of climate impacts and of the varying compensation schemes of climate policies compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. By 2100, climate impacts will increase inequality by 1.4 points of the Gini index on average. Maintaining global mean temperature below 1.5 °C reduces long-term inequality increase by two-thirds but increases it slightly in the short term. However, equal per-capita redistribution can offset the short-term effect, lowering the Gini index by almost two points. We quantify model uncertainty and find robust evidence that well-designed policies can help stabilize climate and promote economic inclusion.