Impact of changing water levels on Caspian Sea water transport
T. Schaars (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
M. van Koningsveld – Mentor (TU Delft - Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)
Femke C. Vossepoel – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Reservoir Engineering)
L. de Boom – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)
Christiaan Loeber – Graduation committee member (Witteveen+Bos)
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Abstract
Declining water levels driven by climate change increasingly threaten the efficiency of maritime transport systems. This thesis develops a transferable methodology to quantify how such changes affect port-to-port waterborne transport. The framework integrates physical, operational, and infrastructural aspects to assess how throughput capacity evolves under varying water depths.
The method consists of three components. First, navigational depth related bottlenecks are identified by subdividing a route into port basins, access channels, and an open sea section, using bathymetric and infrastructure data to locate depth-critical areas. Second, a discrete-event simulation model built in the open-source package OpenCLSim represents vessel operations, handling cycles, and sailing behaviour under different water levels. Third, a one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis uses this simulation to systematically vary parameters. Fleet size, number of berths, (un)loading speed and the minimum percentage a vessel must be loaded to sail, are varied to quantify their influence on transport volumes as water levels fall.
The methodology is applied to Caspian Sea routes between the Port of Alat (Azerbaijan) and the Kazakh ports of Aktau and Kuryk. A depth-related navigational bottleneck occurs in the access channel of the Alat port. Simulation results show that between 2027 and 2033 transport volumes drop to 50% on this route if no changes are made. The number of vessels in the fleet becomes increasingly important as water levels fall.
This structured framework enables shipping companies and policymakers to anticipate and mitigate performance losses in port-to-port water transport systems under future low-water scenarios.