Design Contours for Complex Marine Systems

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This paper examines the performance of 6 stiffened ship panel designs in different operational profiles. The main question of interest is: which sea states will lead to the worst panel performances in terms of reliability? As stiffened panel collapse is governed by combined lateral and in-plane loading effects (non-linear functions of the wave environment) this is not a simple problem and does not easily fit into the confines of traditional analyses. Interesting sea states for stiffened panel collapse are identified by a low-order design contour method which uses order statistics and extreme value theory. The resulting multimodal design contours pinpoint areas of interest and the panel performances are confirmed using a higher-order reliability analysis: the non-linear Design Loads Generator process. Such results have impact for creating and interpreting environmental and design contours, as well as assumptions about which operational profiles will lead to the worst system responses.