Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics

Conference paper (2022)

Authors

L. Ma Network Architectures and Services -

M.A. Kitsak Network Architectures and Services -

P.F.A. Van Mieghem Network Architectures and Services -

Research Group

Network Architectures and Services () (TU Delft)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23

COVID-19 pandemic Complex networks Mortality reduction Two-population SIR model

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http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4da10213-4c3c-484c-9d62-1fb936d54dab

Published Date

2022

Language

English

Reuse Rights

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Faculty

Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Department

Quantum & Computer Engineering

Research Group

Network Architectures and Services

Abstract

Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to investigate the COVID-19 spreading when contacts between elderly and non-elderly individuals are reduced due to the high mortality risk of elderly people. We discover that the reduction of connections between two populations can delay the death curve but cannot reduce the final mortality. We propose a merged SIR model, which advises elderly individuals to interact less with their non-elderly connections at the initial stage but interact more with their non-elderly relationships later, to reduce mortality. Finally, immunizing elderly hub individuals can also significantly decrease mortality.

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- Embargo expired in 04-07-2022