Residents’ preferences regarding shared mobility in car-free zones

Abstract

Growing car dependence intensifies congestion and reduces urban liveability. In response, many cities are introducing car-free zones supported by shared mobility to promote sustainable and accessible transport. However, residents’ preferences for shared modes in actively transitioning car-free contexts remain underexplored. This study examines these preferences in the inner city of Delft, a medium-sized Dutch city transforming toward a car-free area under the “Mobility Plan 2040.” A stated choice experiment examines how travel cost, walking time, socio-demographic characteristics, and trip purposes influence the adoption of four shared electric modes, (e-) bikes, scooters, cargo bikes, and cars, while an “opt-out” option captured avoidance behaviour. A Mixed Logit model estimated the Value of Time and quantified preference heterogeneity. Travel cost and walking time are the most significant determinants. The estimated VoT (€0.20 per minute) highlights the importance of reducing access distances. Socio-demographic variation was significant: younger, digitally literate residents prefer micromobility, while those aged 50 + are more likely to opt out. Gender, income, education, and trip purpose further shape preferences, with commuting trips showing lower adoption due to time and reliability constraints. Rather than forecasting demand, we use the experiment as a behavioural diagnostic of an urban transition in progress: the 64% of choices selecting the opt-out indicate that the offered shared modes were frequently not acceptable substitutes for the recalled trip—most strongly when that trip was car-based—highlighting that car-free strategies must combine service design (pricing, fleet proximity) with car-ownership targeted measures for the groups least ready to substitute.