An Assessment of the Future Climate Impact of Commercial Aviation Activity
A Scenario-Based Assessment Approach
G.M. van Dekken (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
V. Grewe – Mentor (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
More Info
expand_more
Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.
Abstract
Aviation activity results in around 5% of global climate impact, for which both the sources and the manner to improve through technology, operations, and policy need to be better understood. Therefore, a Scenario-based assessment through AirClim is done, assessing future efforts and their support for the Paris Agreement goals. The baseline showed 39% of climate impact resulting from CO2 emissions, with 61% from NOx-related effects and contrail-cirrus, resulting in 212.8 millikelvins of induced temperature change. Reduction of 75% climate impact in the year 2100 was possible but only through highly optimistic assumptions. Removing optimistic assumptions climate impact of 104.9 millikelvins is achievable. Comparison to relevant studies shows results to be comparatively high, besides uncertainty in component radiative forcing. More top-down and bottom-up studies must map clear boundaries to be imposed on e.g. airliners, manufacturers, and political bodies, to allow for structural climate impact reduction. Future developments are unlikely to meet Paris Agreement demands if not accompanied by a broader scope than CO2 emissions.